Evenly Matched Teams Make Perfect Storm For Betting NBA Finals

OKC favored, but Miami has value

Evenly matched teams make perfect storm for betting on NBA Finals

By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider

LAS VEGAS -- Sometimes the sports books here win because things work out the way they expect them to, but the thing that really makes the books hard to beat is sometimes they get lucky, too.


Take the NBA Finals, for example. Less than two weeks ago, May 30 to be exact, the San Antonio Spurs and Miami Heat were both up 2-0 in their conference championship series. Even though some books had some future-book liability from early in the season when the Spurs were available at around 30-1, they thought that was the price to pay to have a marquee battle for the title.


As we've all seen, the Oklahoma City Thunder ran off four straight wins to dispose of the Spurs while the Heat, despite dropping three straight to the Boston Celtics (another team that had taken some action at 30-1 to 50-1 around midseason before making a late rush), re-rallied to win Games 6 and 7 to create the perfect storm of NBA Finals: Thunder vs. Heat.


"This has worked out better than I thought," said Jimmy Vaccaro, the legendary Vegas bookmaker who currently works for the Lucky's chain of race and sports books and whom we've leaned on since interviewing him for our NBA preview back in December when Lucky's had the Heat as the NBA title favorite and the Thunder as the No. 4 choice (see the chart).
<!-- begin inline 1 --><table><thead><tr><th>Team</th><th>Open (6/22)</th><th>Start of season (12/22)</th><th>All-Star (2/22)</th><th>Playoffs (4/25)</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>Miami Heat</td><td>5-2</td><td>2-1</td><td>13-10</td><td>17-10</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Chicago Bulls</td><td>5-1</td><td>6-1</td><td>4-1</td><td>4-1</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>OKC Thunder</td><td>6-1</td><td>6-1</td><td>9-2</td><td>4-1</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>San Antonio Spurs</td><td>18-1</td><td>30-1</td><td>10-1</td><td>7-2</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>L.A. Lakers</td><td>6-1</td><td>9-2</td><td>11-1</td><td>13-1</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>L.A. Clippers</td><td>50-1</td><td>13-1</td><td>13-1</td><td>30-1</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Dallas Mavericks</td><td>7-1</td><td>10-1</td><td>15-1</td><td>38-1</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>New York Knicks</td><td>20-1</td><td>14-1</td><td>15-1</td><td>30-1</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Philadelphia 76ers</td><td>60-1</td><td>100-1</td><td>22-1</td><td>125-1</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Boston Celtics</td><td>10-1</td><td>15-1</td><td>30-1</td><td>18-1</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Denver Nuggets</td><td>28-1</td><td>65-1</td><td>30-1</td><td>80-1</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Orlando Magic</td><td>18-1</td><td>25-1</td><td>40-1</td><td>125-1</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Indiana Pacers</td><td>100-1</td><td>75-1</td><td>45-1</td><td>40-1</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Memphis Grizzlies</td><td>30-1</td><td>27-1</td><td>50-1</td><td>24-1</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Atlanta Hawks</td><td>40-1</td><td>55-1</td><td>50-1</td><td>80-1</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Utah Jazz</td><td>100-1</td><td>100-1</td><td>150-1</td><td>100-1</td></tr></tbody></table>

<!-- end inline 1 -->"The Heat are a bookmakers' dream because they're a very polarizing team. A lot of people love them but a lot of people hate them, so that creates betting handle no matter what. But the team that's been surprising is the Thunder," he said. "Whether it's a matter of people developing a fondness for them because they like the way they play, or if it's because they've been winning money with them" -- OKC backers won and covered the last four games of the series against the Spurs but are also 10-2-1 against the spread in their past 13 games since failing to cover in Games 1 and 2 of their playoff-opening series against the Dallas Mavericks -- "people are really supporting this team, too."
<offer>Despite the fact the Heat have been the NBA title favorite all season long, except for a few times when the Spurs took over that distinction after running off 20 straight wins, the Thunder's success, aided by the fact they have home-court advantage in the Finals, made them the favorite when betting opened on the series after the Heat's Game 7 win over the Celtics on Saturday night.



The series opened with the Thunder minus-135 (risk $135 for every $100 you want to profit) and money came in fast and furious on Kevin Durant & Co. and moved it as high as minus-165 some places. The line for Tuesday night's Game 1 also opened Thunder minus-4 offshore and at Station Casinos in Vegas before being bet to minus-5 by Sunday night.


As of Sunday night, the Thunder were minus-155 in the series price at Lucky's with the Heat offered at plus-135 (profit $135 for every $100 risked). Reflected in that slightly lower price is Vaccaro's opinion that OKC might be getting too much credit for home-court advantage.


"The 2-3-2 format in the NBA Finals actually in some ways favors the away team," he said. "If the Heat can get a split in Oklahoma City, then three of the last games would be in Miami and they'd be the favorite."


Vaccaro said he's seeing that reflected in advance wagering. Lucky's already has lines on Games 2 and 3, so bettors can either bet them individually or in parlays before the series begins. The Thunder are just minus-4 in Thursday's Game 2 (note: the zigzag theory in the NBA playoffs hasn't been profitable in recent years so I won't bore you with the details, but if the Heat do lose Game 1 as the odds suggest, the Game 2 line is more likely to drop as bettors back them to bounce back and even the series) and the price flips when the series moves to Miami with the Heat favored by minus-4 in Sunday's Game 3.


"We get a lot of people who like to parlay those, especially Games 1 and 2 if they think one team will win one game and the other will bounce back or if they think one team will sweep both," Vaccaro said. "People don't use Game 3 as much because that number could be off by several points depending on what happens."

So, based on what we're seeing out of Vegas, what will happen? If you like the Thunder, the time to bet them is Game 1, though you likely already missed them at a better price at minus-4 or minus-4.5. However, Vaccaro said he anticipates late money from the sharps on Miami on Tuesday, especially if the line continues to rise, so the price could drop before tipoff. The Heat would be the play in Game 2, though keep in mind that these teams split their two regular-season games with each winning and covering at home.


With the Thunder-Heat matchup drawing more attention, that's also good news for bettors as more proposition wagers will be available to capitalize on that interest. Sometimes if you think the game lines are too tight (to find an edge), there's another way to bet. For instance, if you think the Thunder, who have covered eight of the past nine times they've scored 100-plus points, are more likely to win a high-scoring game, you can bet them over their team total of 100. If you think "as LeBron James goes, so goes the Heat," you can bet him over 36.5 points-plus-assists.


Good luck finding your edges, and enjoy what should be an exciting, back-and-forth series. When it comes right down to it, I think the Heat do get a split in Games 1 and 2, win two of three at home for a 3-2 lead, but then it's pretty much pick-em from there with Heat needing just one more win but the Thunder being favored in Games 6 and 7 at home. Having said that, the Heat plus-140 for the series looks like value, whether you love or hate them.
</offer>

Pretty good article. Hey can you post the insider article talking about what the Celtics should do next? I think Haberstoh or whatever wrote it? I'll probably disagree with half of it and the other half won't even be realistic but could be a decent read.

I don't see that one Pats... Link?

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/stor...tp://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story?id=8031966

There it is....While you are at I guess Hollinger's read on the series could be solid as well.

I'm not much of a stat-head with NBA at all (do think its good supplemental info but feel it drives lines wayyyyy too much these days) See your magic vs my Celts in 2010 ECF.

Where do the Celtics go from here?

With the Big 3 probably dissolving, Boston's wish list will be long

By Tom Haberstroh
ESPN Insider

So, what now?
That's the question on everyone's mind after the Boston Celtics bowed out to the Miami Heat in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference finals. Heading into the postseason, it was a foregone conclusion that this might be the last hurrah for the Big Three (or Big Four, if you prefer). And what a last hurrah it would be. Giving the Heat everything they could handle in seven games.
<!-- begin inline 1 --><!-- INLINE MODULE -->Boston Celtics Must Reads

Epitaph for the Big Three: Ric Bucher reflects on Boston's Big Three. Did they win enough? Do they have anything left to offer another team? Read
Celtics draft needs: David Thorpe examines the best fits for the Celtics and says UConn wing Jeremy Lamb could slip into the role Ray Allen had. Read
Star-driven vs team-driven rosters: The Celtics made Big Three rosters en vogue. Austin Link of TeamRankings.com says by and large, the 2012 playoffs have proven Big Three teams will win. Read


<!-- END INLINE MODULE --><!-- end inline 1 -->If it is indeed the end of an era for the old guard in Boston, it was by natural causes. The contracts have run their course, which will free up gobs of cash for the Celtics to make some free-agent deals. Kevin Garnett is 36 years old and his $21 million will come off the books as a free agent this summer. Ray Allen will be 37 years old in July and his $10 million will also evaporate when he hits the market. The expiring contracts of Jermaine O'Neal, Chris Wilcox and Keyon Dooling will also relieve another $11.5 million.
Sum it up and the Celtics have $42 million worth of expiring deals that will fly off the books. You know when executives talk about the value of cap flexibility? The Celtics will be more flexible than a body contortionist this summer. But will they spend it all this summer or maintain some flexibility for the future?


That's a question that only general manager Danny Ainge can answer, but the suspicion here is that they will reload rather than rebuild from scratch. An altruistic basketball maestro like Rajon Rondo is wasted if he's not surrounded with loads of talent. Paul Pierce, who's entering his final fully guaranteed season in 2012-13, isn't a long-term option, even if he's still an elite player at his position.
The Celtics need more able bodies and they will have options.
Here's one man's opinion of Boston's wish list:
1. Re-sign Garnett to a one-year deal



This makes a ton of sense from both sides. The Celtics are paper-thin (not in the literal sense, of course) with Brandon Bass, Greg Steimsma and JaJuan Johnson as the only bigs set to return next season. They don't have any tradable assets outside of Avery Bradley and Rondo, so the most logical avenue for improvement is via free agency.
<offer>And Garnett might be the best big man on the market. Luckily for Boston, they have the inside track to sign him because of his expressed preference to return. Of course, there's plenty of risk involved when you ink a player approaching his 40th birthday, but no one knows Garnett's physical needs and limitations than the Celtics. If there's a team that has the wherewithal to gamble, it's Boston.
Signing Garnett for a one-year deal also maintains the Celtics' long-term flexibility in case they whiff on landing a score-first wing player this offseason. Looking at all of Garnett's options, ending his career in Boston alongside Pierce in front of a worshiping fanbase may be the best fit. A one-year deal for $8 million seems like a fair compromise. Although he might receive more money elsewhere, the Celtics can offer him more non-monetary value most teams: a chance at another ring, comfort and security of legacy.
2. Land O.J. Mayo in free agency

So here's the big dilemma for the Celtics. They have the cash to offer a max-level deal, but there's no one on the market worth the jackpot money. They had one of the least efficient offenses last season and their biggest demand -- an athletic wing scorer -- isn't exactly flush with supply. Sure, they could try to court restricted free agent Eric Gordon all they want, but there's no way that the New Orleans Hornets will let Gordon walk with Anthony Davis on the way. There's a better chance that Boston mayor Tommy Menino correctly pronounces Sasha Pavlovic than Gordon ending up with Boston.</offer>
If Gordon is out of the question, then they need a Plan B. Or should we say, a Plan O.J.
Now, O.J. Mayo isn't an ideal situation, but this would be a reclamation project for someone who was once considered a top prospect out of high school. A lot of time has passed since Mayo's on-court production came anywhere close to his hype, but Boston doesn't have many options to get younger and more talented. Mayo has been an abysmal shooter for two seasons now, but Rondo's table-setting powers could be a perfect antidote to his shooting ills. And remember, Mayo is just two years removed from putting up 46 percent/38 percent/81 percent splits in the field-goal, 3-point and free-throw columns.



There are other options but they seem more problematic than Mayo. Can you see the black hole that is Nick Young fly in Doc Rivers' pass-happy system? Is Courtney Lee or C.J. Miles dynamic enough offensively to give them what they need? After Gordon, the talent pool drops off dramatically. Of course, they could always wait and join the James Harden sweepstakes in 2014 when he can become a free agent.


3. Sign Carl Landry



Take a guess who was the best post-up player in the NBA last season. It's not Pau Gasol, Luis Scola, Al Jefferson or Tim Duncan.


It was Carl Landry. According to SynergySports, no one registered a better efficiency on post-up plays than the Hornets power forward (minimum 100 plays). And that's exactly what the Celtics need. Landry is set to become a free agent after posting probably the quietest 18.2 PER ever recorded. Landry isn't an All-Star by any stretch of the means but pair him with Garnett and you have quite the inside-out combo. Bass looks like a bruiser but he's more of a perimeter threat.


Would a starting five of Rondo, Mayo, Pierce, Landry and Garnett be a title contender? Maybe not, but they could do far worse. This isn't the best free-agent market to be a buyer but the Celtics could be right back in the Eastern Conference finals if they find a team that can outscore the opponent in its most literal sense. Mayo and Landry might be their best options.

Miami or OKC: Whose advantage?

On paper, this series is as evenly matched as it gets (PER Diem: June 11, 2012)

By John Hollinger
ESPN Insider

How do we choose?


The Oklahoma City Thunder and Miami Heat are playing in the NBA Finals, and one of the many reasons that the excitement level is going through the roof is that on paper, this looks like as evenly matched a contest as you'll see. Although the two cities couldn't be any more different, the on-the-court product looks remarkably similar.


To review:


• Both teams finished second in their conference. One won 47 games; the other 46.


• One team had a scoring margin of 6.1 points per game; the other had a margin of 6.0.


• Both teams have top-heavy talent arrangements that feature three mega-stars and a flotilla of seen-but-not-heard role players.


• Both coaches have been roundly criticized, much of it undeservedly, for their game management and play calling.


• And, fittingly, they split their two regular-season meetings head-to-head.


So with all that, how are we supposed to choose only one of them to prevail?


For starters, let's admit that there's about a 50 percent chance that we'll be wrong regardless. A series this close is likely to turn on the smallest of details -- a ball that rolls in, an ankle that rolls over or a screener that doesn't roll.


Nonetheless, a few advantages seem apparent if we dig deep enough.


The first and most obvious one is that Oklahoma City will have home-court advantage in a potential seventh game, and that's worth about three points relative to a neutral site. In a series where the smallest advantages are likely to matter, that's a pretty big one. That's especially true, I would add, in the Thunder's gym, which has quickly become one of the game's cathedrals because its one-of-a-kind crowd can convince a favorable whistle on many nights.


With all that said, I suspect that appearances may be deceiving. Most pundits are picking the Thunder, but a deeper look at the numbers reveals a fairly solid advantage for the Heat.


Although their stats on the season may be nearly identical, the stats with their stars on the floor are not. This is an important point, because one fundamental difference between a Finals series and an 82-game regular season is that in the Finals, the scrubs will largely be bystanders. Each team has three stars, and at least two of them will be on the court virtually the entire time.


First, some background. Oklahoma City's stars were iron men this season; James Harden missed just four games, and Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka didn't miss any. That's one reason I was mildly disappointed with them for much of the season -- with their young legs and great health, I thought they should have been more dominant. One could argue it was too easy and familiar to coast on their talent until the Spurs forced them to play a smarter game.


Miami, on the other hand, had multiple injuries to its stars in the regular season and sometimes rested them in late-season games instead of pushing for a higher playoff seed. Then Bosh was hurt in Game 1 of the conference semifinals against the Pacers. It has shown in Miami's record both in the regular season and postseason: The Heat were 42-15 in the regular season when Bosh played but 4-5 when he didn't; similarly, they're 6-1 in the playoffs when Bosh plays at least 20 minutes and 6-5 the rest of the time.


Combine the two, and they're 48-16 with Bosh and 10-10 without him. As long as they have Bosh, you have to like their odds.


Let's dig deeper and see why. Remember, we should expect both teams to have at least two of their three stars on the floor for virtually every meaningful minute. Comparing their performance in those situations, then, only makes sense.


With all three of their main stars on the floor -- Durant, Westbrook and Harden -- the Thunder outscored opponents by 10.6 points per 48 minutes this season; with two of those three playing, they were plus-5.0.


That's outstanding -- but it's not as good as Miami. With their Big Three together, the Heat swamped opponents by 12.8 points per 40 minutes, according to NBA.com's advanced stats tool. With at least two of them on the court, they were plus-7.1.


So Miami, in the situations we'd expect to see in this series, has about a two-point-per-game edge on the Thunder. (See chart.)


Both teams were break-even propositions with one or none of their stars on the floor. (OKC was minus-2 on the season; Miami was plus-10). The only reason their numbers are so close overall, however, is that the Thunder played just 625 of those minutes in the regular season, while Miami played 1,192 -- nearly twice as many.


News flash: Both teams will have nearly zero of those minutes in the Finals. It's the other minutes that matter, and Miami was better in them.


Big 3s and Big 2s: Miami-OKC

<table><thead><tr><th></th><th>Miami</th><th>OKC</th><th>Difference</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>With Big 3, regular season</td><td>+12.8</td><td>+10.6</td><td>+2.2</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>With 2 of Big 3, reg. season</td><td>+7.1</td><td>+5.0</td><td>+2.1</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>With Big 3, playoffs</td><td>+16.9</td><td>+18.5</td><td>-1.6</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>With 2 of Big 3, playoffs</td><td>+9.9</td><td>-1.2</td><td>+11.1</td></tr></tbody></table>

The same data bends Miami's way in the playoffs. With all three, the Heat have been shockingly good: plus-16.9 points per 48 minutes. Even with two, they have been plus-9.9. But the rest of the time, they have been minus-24; because of Bosh's injury, there were a lot of those minutes (202), which explains how Indiana and Boston had them on the ropes.

Meanwhile, the Thunder have been a bit better than Miami with their Big Three on the floor during the postseason, outscoring opponents by a whopping 18.5 points per 48 minutes. But with only two of the three on the floor, it's a different story -- they've been outscored in the playoffs.


Admittedly, Oklahoma City faced a higher level of competition than the Heat did in the postseason, but this difference has been grossly overblown. If you look at the quality of the opponents rather than the names on their jerseys, their entire advantage came in the conference finals; before that, Miami foes Indiana and New York combined for more wins and a far better scoring margin than the Lakers and Mavs.


One can argue that the Thunder deserve extra credit for how well they played in the last four games against San Antonio. I'll be the first to admit they may have turned the corner with how well they shared the ball and amped up their defense.


But focusing on that overlooks just how dominant Miami has been when fully intact, both in the regular season and in the playoffs. Here's a stat to drive my point home: The Heat have six double-digit wins in the seven playoff games that Bosh played at least 20 minutes. The Thunder have four the entire postseason.


As I said, it's close, and a lot of things could tip the balance. But if you want to know why I'm picking Miami in seven, this is why. With their best players on the court, they've simply been better. As long as they can keep those players in uniform and out of the infirmary, I think they'll prevail in what promises to be the first chapter of an epic rivalry.

Yeah I wouldn't mind letting Bass go and getting Landry but paying good $ for Mayo is useless. I'd take Bradley over him.

Mayo is a solid scorer, not much more.

Sorry for wasting your time, that article kinda sucked.

The Hollinger column was solid even though I disagree with a few of his premises.