2012 MLB O/U Record: 163-152-15, -$850 (Been making bigger bets this year, with countless bad breaks, obviously)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Despite consecutive down days, although very minor, over Saturday and Sunday, I’ve still been feeling great in June, as evident with my 26-15-3 record this month. Don’t want to dwell on that too much, though, as I’d rather get back on track tonight, with these three potential very good over/unders…
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim @ Los Angeles Dodgers- $120 for $100
Garrett Richards vs Chris Capuano
OVER 7
In his first start of the year last week, not to mention the fourth one of his Major League career, I pretty much offered you the book on Garrett Richards - high potential pitcher with pretty good stuff that can make opposing batters swing and miss on a constant basis, while regularly picking apart the strikezone. That’s the exact scouting report he followed last week, when he made said start against the Mariners in my best bet under, limiting them to one run and four hits over seven strong innings, while striking out eight and walking just one. Even with Jered Weaver due back extremely soon, perhaps at the end of this week, Richards is poised to keep his newfound spot in the Angels rotation, especially since he wasn’t having much success in Triple-A this year. At the same time, maybe that is a variable that can creep into Richards’ mindset and throw him off his usual rhythm just a bit. That’s not necessarily a variable I am counting on, but I still feel Richards will not have the same success tonight that he enjoyed in his 2012 starting debut. The Dodgers offense has been surprisingly efficient without Matt Kemp, and if they can just get to Richards for a few runs, which I believe they can, then that will put us in a good position.
Chris Capuano, meanwhile, is enjoying the definition of a renaissance year, having not really been relevant since his 18-win season with the Brewers in 2005. It’s hard to believe that seven years later, including a couple of significant injuries, Capuano may actually top that, as he’s well on his way to an all-star berth, all while significantly contributing to a potential Dodgers’ division crown. Who woulda thunk it? Capuano displayed flashes of his old self a year ago with the Mets, but has really put it together in this, so far, dominant 2012 campaign. At 8-2 with a 2.82 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, not to mention a surprising 66 Ks in 73 IP from the veteran, Capuano may even be sniffing Cy Young credentials. However, those numbers would be even better, if Cap hadn’t hit the rough patch that he entered a couple of starts ago (Something I predicted couple of weeks ago that would very well happen much sooner than later), as he’s surrendered eight earned runs over his past two outings - this after allowing only 11 runs in his previous nine starts combined! Yes, it’s clear that Capuano has hit his ceiling, and may be crashing a bit as a result, but it’s certain he needs to make some adjustments to get back to the level he was at earlier this season, and that will be very tough to do to just start suddenly clicking again against arguably the hottest offense in baseball - the Angels’ group of dangerous sluggers. With the line as low as 7, we should AT LEAST be able to squeak out a 5-2 outcome at Chavez Ravine, which is one thing that makes this over so appealing to me.
Washington Nationals @ Toronto Blue Jays - $84 for $80
Edwin Jackson vs Brandon Morrow
UNDER8
Unders have been harder to come by this year at the Rogers Centre, which isn’t that surprising in that ballpark when the high-octane Blue Jays bats get going, but on this certain Monday evening, we have a very good chance at one with a very solid pitching matchup. Brandon Morrow, as I have continually been pointing out this year, IS a legitimate ace. He was always labeled of having that potential the day he entered the big leagues, and while it’s taken him quite some time to solidify himself as such, the bottom line is he’s finally achieved it, as he’s surely on his way to an American League all-star berth. After all, just look at the phenomenal season he’s having: 7-2, 2.90 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 67:24 K:BB ratio in 77 IP. Morrow has simply been outstanding this year, and his numbers would be even better than that if not for a couple of real rough starts (Ex. Six runs allowed in 0.2 IP at Texas a couple of Fridays ago; had the over in that one, too). Considering I’veb een very good with Morrow this year, you’d be wise to specifically tail me on his starts, while my senses have been spot-on with him. Look for him to keep his excellent pitching here.
Edwin Jackson is another pretty dependable pitcher who is also having a good year, albeit not as tremendous as his counterpart for tonight. Still, like Morrow, Jackson is seriously contending for a potential spot on the all-star team, possessing a 2-3 mark with a 3.11 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and a nifty 59:19 K:BB ratio in 72 innings. It might be especially comforting relying on him in interleague play, due to his considerable experience pitching against American League opponents and in American League stadiums. It’s still hard to believe sometimes when you think about the fact that Jackson is on his seventh Major League team - all before the ageof 30! Nonetheless, it appears he has found his permanent home, as he’s been thriving with the Nationals in helping them attain first place in the wildly tough NLEast. In fact, he’s allowed four or more runs in a start only twice all year. I see him going pitch-for-pitch with the Blue Jays’ stud tonight in what I have projected as the only potential pitcher’s duel on the evening. 5-2ish sounds about where this one is headed.
Other 6/11 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Josh Beckett vs Josh Johnson OVER 7.5 - $81 for $70 (Both guys in grooves right nowf or the most part but this is mostly a vibe thing, as both offenses are more than capable of lighting up the scoreboard on any given night. I see both clubs getting their bats going in this ESPN Monday night affair)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Despite consecutive down days, although very minor, over Saturday and Sunday, I’ve still been feeling great in June, as evident with my 26-15-3 record this month. Don’t want to dwell on that too much, though, as I’d rather get back on track tonight, with these three potential very good over/unders…
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim @ Los Angeles Dodgers- $120 for $100
Garrett Richards vs Chris Capuano
OVER 7
In his first start of the year last week, not to mention the fourth one of his Major League career, I pretty much offered you the book on Garrett Richards - high potential pitcher with pretty good stuff that can make opposing batters swing and miss on a constant basis, while regularly picking apart the strikezone. That’s the exact scouting report he followed last week, when he made said start against the Mariners in my best bet under, limiting them to one run and four hits over seven strong innings, while striking out eight and walking just one. Even with Jered Weaver due back extremely soon, perhaps at the end of this week, Richards is poised to keep his newfound spot in the Angels rotation, especially since he wasn’t having much success in Triple-A this year. At the same time, maybe that is a variable that can creep into Richards’ mindset and throw him off his usual rhythm just a bit. That’s not necessarily a variable I am counting on, but I still feel Richards will not have the same success tonight that he enjoyed in his 2012 starting debut. The Dodgers offense has been surprisingly efficient without Matt Kemp, and if they can just get to Richards for a few runs, which I believe they can, then that will put us in a good position.
Chris Capuano, meanwhile, is enjoying the definition of a renaissance year, having not really been relevant since his 18-win season with the Brewers in 2005. It’s hard to believe that seven years later, including a couple of significant injuries, Capuano may actually top that, as he’s well on his way to an all-star berth, all while significantly contributing to a potential Dodgers’ division crown. Who woulda thunk it? Capuano displayed flashes of his old self a year ago with the Mets, but has really put it together in this, so far, dominant 2012 campaign. At 8-2 with a 2.82 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, not to mention a surprising 66 Ks in 73 IP from the veteran, Capuano may even be sniffing Cy Young credentials. However, those numbers would be even better, if Cap hadn’t hit the rough patch that he entered a couple of starts ago (Something I predicted couple of weeks ago that would very well happen much sooner than later), as he’s surrendered eight earned runs over his past two outings - this after allowing only 11 runs in his previous nine starts combined! Yes, it’s clear that Capuano has hit his ceiling, and may be crashing a bit as a result, but it’s certain he needs to make some adjustments to get back to the level he was at earlier this season, and that will be very tough to do to just start suddenly clicking again against arguably the hottest offense in baseball - the Angels’ group of dangerous sluggers. With the line as low as 7, we should AT LEAST be able to squeak out a 5-2 outcome at Chavez Ravine, which is one thing that makes this over so appealing to me.
Washington Nationals @ Toronto Blue Jays - $84 for $80
Edwin Jackson vs Brandon Morrow
UNDER8
Unders have been harder to come by this year at the Rogers Centre, which isn’t that surprising in that ballpark when the high-octane Blue Jays bats get going, but on this certain Monday evening, we have a very good chance at one with a very solid pitching matchup. Brandon Morrow, as I have continually been pointing out this year, IS a legitimate ace. He was always labeled of having that potential the day he entered the big leagues, and while it’s taken him quite some time to solidify himself as such, the bottom line is he’s finally achieved it, as he’s surely on his way to an American League all-star berth. After all, just look at the phenomenal season he’s having: 7-2, 2.90 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 67:24 K:BB ratio in 77 IP. Morrow has simply been outstanding this year, and his numbers would be even better than that if not for a couple of real rough starts (Ex. Six runs allowed in 0.2 IP at Texas a couple of Fridays ago; had the over in that one, too). Considering I’veb een very good with Morrow this year, you’d be wise to specifically tail me on his starts, while my senses have been spot-on with him. Look for him to keep his excellent pitching here.
Edwin Jackson is another pretty dependable pitcher who is also having a good year, albeit not as tremendous as his counterpart for tonight. Still, like Morrow, Jackson is seriously contending for a potential spot on the all-star team, possessing a 2-3 mark with a 3.11 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and a nifty 59:19 K:BB ratio in 72 innings. It might be especially comforting relying on him in interleague play, due to his considerable experience pitching against American League opponents and in American League stadiums. It’s still hard to believe sometimes when you think about the fact that Jackson is on his seventh Major League team - all before the ageof 30! Nonetheless, it appears he has found his permanent home, as he’s been thriving with the Nationals in helping them attain first place in the wildly tough NLEast. In fact, he’s allowed four or more runs in a start only twice all year. I see him going pitch-for-pitch with the Blue Jays’ stud tonight in what I have projected as the only potential pitcher’s duel on the evening. 5-2ish sounds about where this one is headed.
Other 6/11 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Josh Beckett vs Josh Johnson OVER 7.5 - $81 for $70 (Both guys in grooves right nowf or the most part but this is mostly a vibe thing, as both offenses are more than capable of lighting up the scoreboard on any given night. I see both clubs getting their bats going in this ESPN Monday night affair)
