2012 MLB O/U Record: 163-155-15, -$1,135
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Days like yesterday can really snow ball, so as a result, I’ll be taking it a little easier today, since your mindset gets all messed up after a day you had three big bets, should have won two of them, but instead, somehow ended up with nothing to show for it. Case in point: Could not have been any more right on my best bet Richards vs Capuano over 7 in Los Angeles last night, as Garrett Richards expectedly displayed nothing from his successful first start, in surrendering five hits and five walks in only five innings of work. Luckily for him, the Dodgers’ usually efficient lineup continually bailed him out with double play balls, untimely strike outs (Especially from Andre Ethier. Just my luck), and even an unusual fluke play that rarely happens (Bobby Abreu’s two-out single with first and second HAD to happen on a double-steal attempt, so the ball hit Dee Gordon as he was about to round third and score, thus ending the inning. Only me), stranding a large village onthe basepaths throughout the game in the process. Chris Capuano was even WORSE, getting pounded for eight hits and four walks in only five innings (Which is a BOLD prediction I made and should have been rewarded for), but the Angels, much like their opponents, bailed him out with various double play balls and inefficient production, leaving lots of baserunners on as well. In scenarios like that, where each starting pitcher struggles mightily with a line as low as 7, the over hits 99-percent of the time. Just my luck.
And, of course, I can’t forget my Jackson vs Morrow under 8, which actually ended up being Jackson vs Blue Jays relievers under, since Brandon Morrow injured himself at the very beginning of the game and left after only ONE batter. Should this even count on my record? It wasn’t even the correct pitching matchup that I was 100-percent right on, considering Edwin Jackson held up his end of the deal in hurling a tremendous eight-inning, two-run gem, meaning we absolutely would have UNQUESTIONABLY won the under if Morrow didn’t get injured. The worst part is… I HAD THIS WON… it was 6-1 in the bottom of the ninth with TWO OUTS, when Sean Burnett and his LESS THAN 1 ERA served up a MEANINGLESS TWO-RUN PINCH HIT HOME RUN TO.220-HITTING YAN GOMES. Are you kidding me? How many ninth-inning pinch-hit home runs can have cost me an under this year? It was only a week and a half ago when the same thing happened with Carlos Gomez! Unbelievable. My bad luck this year is re-writing history and it is truly unbelievable. But I just move on and try to forget it…
**Dollar Amounts To Be Posted Later Leading Up To Gametime**
SanD iego Padres @ Seattle Mariners
Clayton Richard vs Felix Hernandez
UNDER 6.5
It’s a shame the over/under for this game isn’t 7, which is what I was hoping for, considering both pitchers simply have not been at the top of their games this year. Felix Hernandez, for example, has given up four runs or more in four of his past five starts. I believe that’s a first in the career of the great King Felix, or at least the first instance of such in a long time. Luckily for him, though, he has a wonderful opportunity to get back on track, drawing a delicious home matchup against the usually offensively-inept San Diego Padres.This is good for a variety of reasons: One, Hernandez has always been better at home, especially this year when his split stats (1.95 ERA and 1.03 WHIP at home compared to a 4.63 ERA and 1.46 WHIP on the road) are as glaring as ever. Secondly, the Mariners’ ace, despite the inconsistencies of interleague play, has always been stifling against the lowly Padres, making eight starts against them throughout his career, in registering a 4-2 mark with a 3.07 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, to go along with 58 Ks in 55 IP. Other than Carlos Quentin, who actually does give San Diego its most legitimacy on offense in years, these are still the same old Padres who have trouble manufacturing runs, and considering King Felix will be extra motivated to get out of this slump he’s in, we should see him in top form, especially from a mental standpoint. Top pitchers are hungrier than usual when they’re trying to break out of a string of uncharacteristic pitching.
While Felix Hernandez is obviously the more dependable factor here in trying to nail this under, that doesn’t mean Clayton Richard won’t hold up his end of the bargain in trying to help us as well. Richard hasn’t been at stingy as he has been in recent years, but he’s still shown shades of his old self, albeit in flashes throughout 2012. His 2-7 record is surely among the worst in all of baseball, and his 4.58 ERA and 1.32 WHIP have “mediocre” written all over it, but he’s had some real encouraging outings, like limiting the Diamondbacks’ hot offense to one run over almost seven innings less than two weeks ago. His split stats point to him being significantly better at home, but that doesn’t mean he’s been completely off on the road, as it was only a few weeks ago where he went into St. Louis and shutdown the Cardinals’ top-ranked lineup over seven-plus innings in issuing only acouple of runs. The Mariners are one of the worst teams against left-handed pitching, batting an ugly .234, so hopefully that’s a stat that rears itself in tonight’s contest, allowing Richard to get back on track like he’s capable of. The bottom line is he’s better than his 2012 stats might lead you to believe.
Other 6/12 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Zack Greinke vs Luis Mendoza OVER 8/8.5 (Waiting to see if the line drops to 8, as this game could be 6-2. Greinke has been mostly outstanding this year, but returning to his former home of Kansas City, I think his mindset gets thrown off a little bit, considering the mental issues he was going through that sidelined him years ago for a full year and almost derailed his career. Meanwhile, Luis Mendoza has looked nothing like the Luis Mendoza that came on strong at the end of last year. With a DH in the lineup, the Brewers can easily get to him)
**Will Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Days like yesterday can really snow ball, so as a result, I’ll be taking it a little easier today, since your mindset gets all messed up after a day you had three big bets, should have won two of them, but instead, somehow ended up with nothing to show for it. Case in point: Could not have been any more right on my best bet Richards vs Capuano over 7 in Los Angeles last night, as Garrett Richards expectedly displayed nothing from his successful first start, in surrendering five hits and five walks in only five innings of work. Luckily for him, the Dodgers’ usually efficient lineup continually bailed him out with double play balls, untimely strike outs (Especially from Andre Ethier. Just my luck), and even an unusual fluke play that rarely happens (Bobby Abreu’s two-out single with first and second HAD to happen on a double-steal attempt, so the ball hit Dee Gordon as he was about to round third and score, thus ending the inning. Only me), stranding a large village onthe basepaths throughout the game in the process. Chris Capuano was even WORSE, getting pounded for eight hits and four walks in only five innings (Which is a BOLD prediction I made and should have been rewarded for), but the Angels, much like their opponents, bailed him out with various double play balls and inefficient production, leaving lots of baserunners on as well. In scenarios like that, where each starting pitcher struggles mightily with a line as low as 7, the over hits 99-percent of the time. Just my luck.
And, of course, I can’t forget my Jackson vs Morrow under 8, which actually ended up being Jackson vs Blue Jays relievers under, since Brandon Morrow injured himself at the very beginning of the game and left after only ONE batter. Should this even count on my record? It wasn’t even the correct pitching matchup that I was 100-percent right on, considering Edwin Jackson held up his end of the deal in hurling a tremendous eight-inning, two-run gem, meaning we absolutely would have UNQUESTIONABLY won the under if Morrow didn’t get injured. The worst part is… I HAD THIS WON… it was 6-1 in the bottom of the ninth with TWO OUTS, when Sean Burnett and his LESS THAN 1 ERA served up a MEANINGLESS TWO-RUN PINCH HIT HOME RUN TO.220-HITTING YAN GOMES. Are you kidding me? How many ninth-inning pinch-hit home runs can have cost me an under this year? It was only a week and a half ago when the same thing happened with Carlos Gomez! Unbelievable. My bad luck this year is re-writing history and it is truly unbelievable. But I just move on and try to forget it…
**Dollar Amounts To Be Posted Later Leading Up To Gametime**
SanD iego Padres @ Seattle Mariners
Clayton Richard vs Felix Hernandez
UNDER 6.5
It’s a shame the over/under for this game isn’t 7, which is what I was hoping for, considering both pitchers simply have not been at the top of their games this year. Felix Hernandez, for example, has given up four runs or more in four of his past five starts. I believe that’s a first in the career of the great King Felix, or at least the first instance of such in a long time. Luckily for him, though, he has a wonderful opportunity to get back on track, drawing a delicious home matchup against the usually offensively-inept San Diego Padres.This is good for a variety of reasons: One, Hernandez has always been better at home, especially this year when his split stats (1.95 ERA and 1.03 WHIP at home compared to a 4.63 ERA and 1.46 WHIP on the road) are as glaring as ever. Secondly, the Mariners’ ace, despite the inconsistencies of interleague play, has always been stifling against the lowly Padres, making eight starts against them throughout his career, in registering a 4-2 mark with a 3.07 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, to go along with 58 Ks in 55 IP. Other than Carlos Quentin, who actually does give San Diego its most legitimacy on offense in years, these are still the same old Padres who have trouble manufacturing runs, and considering King Felix will be extra motivated to get out of this slump he’s in, we should see him in top form, especially from a mental standpoint. Top pitchers are hungrier than usual when they’re trying to break out of a string of uncharacteristic pitching.
While Felix Hernandez is obviously the more dependable factor here in trying to nail this under, that doesn’t mean Clayton Richard won’t hold up his end of the bargain in trying to help us as well. Richard hasn’t been at stingy as he has been in recent years, but he’s still shown shades of his old self, albeit in flashes throughout 2012. His 2-7 record is surely among the worst in all of baseball, and his 4.58 ERA and 1.32 WHIP have “mediocre” written all over it, but he’s had some real encouraging outings, like limiting the Diamondbacks’ hot offense to one run over almost seven innings less than two weeks ago. His split stats point to him being significantly better at home, but that doesn’t mean he’s been completely off on the road, as it was only a few weeks ago where he went into St. Louis and shutdown the Cardinals’ top-ranked lineup over seven-plus innings in issuing only acouple of runs. The Mariners are one of the worst teams against left-handed pitching, batting an ugly .234, so hopefully that’s a stat that rears itself in tonight’s contest, allowing Richard to get back on track like he’s capable of. The bottom line is he’s better than his 2012 stats might lead you to believe.
Other 6/12 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Zack Greinke vs Luis Mendoza OVER 8/8.5 (Waiting to see if the line drops to 8, as this game could be 6-2. Greinke has been mostly outstanding this year, but returning to his former home of Kansas City, I think his mindset gets thrown off a little bit, considering the mental issues he was going through that sidelined him years ago for a full year and almost derailed his career. Meanwhile, Luis Mendoza has looked nothing like the Luis Mendoza that came on strong at the end of last year. With a DH in the lineup, the Brewers can easily get to him)
**Will Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
