College World Series

Here are my lines (minus pitchers) for the 1st round games. Lines are generated from an overall rating. Below that are pitcher ratings for all the teams. You can adjust the lines based on which pitcher is better. We'll see if we can find any value.

I divided the pitchers in half based on innings pitched sorted by highest rating. First group has 32 +IP this season or more. Bottom group has below that.

Away-- Stony Brook
Home-- UCLA -319

Away-- Arizona
Home-- Florida State -117

Away-- Kent State
Home-- Arkansas -161

Away-- South Carolina
Home-- Florida -132

Rating - Year - Team - Player - IP - ERA - W - L
- - - - - - -
51.29 - 2012 - Florida State - Robert Benincasa - 36 - 1.25 - 4 - 1
47.21 - 2012 - Florida - Steven Rodriguez - 61.2 - 2.19 - 3 - 2
47.12 - 2012 - UCLA - David Berg - 68.1 - 1.58 - 5 - 3
45.88 - 2012 - Florida - Austin Maddox - 54 - 2.5 - 3 - 3
45.79 - 2012 - Florida - Greg Larson - 50.2 - 1.42 - 6 - 0
44.95 - 2012 - Arkansas - Cade Lynch - 47 - 2.11 - 3 - 1
44.46 - 2012 - South Carolina - Tyler Webb - 47 - 1.91 - 6 - 1
43.91 - 2012 - South Carolina - Colby Holmes - 74 - 2.8 - 7 - 1
43.84 - 2012 - Arkansas - Colby Suggs - 37 - 1.22 - 7 - 0
43.74 - 2012 - Stony Brook - Frankie Vanderka - 55.2 - 2.43 - 2 - 3
43.56 - 2012 - Florida - Hudson Randall - 93 - 2.61 - 9 - 2
43.25 - 2012 - Kent State - David Starn - 114 - 2.21 - 11 - 3
42.87 - 2012 - South Carolina - Matt Price - 70 - 3.47 - 4 - 4
42.78 - 2012 - Arizona - K Heyer - 138 - 2.28 - 12 - 2
42.61 - 2012 - Stony Brook - James Campbell - 55.1 - 3.09 - 5 - 0
42.38 - 2012 - Florida State - Brandon Leibrandt - 94.1 - 2.58 - 8 - 2
42.31 - 2012 - Arkansas - Barrett Astin - 54.1 - 2.15 - 3 - 5
42.28 - 2012 - Stony Brook - Evan Stecko-haley - 80.1 - 3.47 - 7 - 3
42.16 - 2012 - Arkansas - Brandon Moore - 73 - 2.71 - 5 - 2
42.1 - 2012 - Arkansas - Dj Baxendale - 96.1 - 3.18 - 7 - 5
42.09 - 2012 - Florida - Brian Johnson - 86 - 3.56 - 8 - 4
41.93 - 2012 - South Carolina - Michael Roth - 115 - 2.5 - 7 - 1
41.7 - 2012 - Arkansas - Nolan Sanburn - 39.1 - 2.52 - 4 - 1
41.48 - 2012 - Stony Brook - Brandon McNitt - 100.2 - 2.5 - 8 - 3
41.48 - 2012 - UCLA - Adam Plutko - 112.2 - 2.56 - 11 - 3
41.45 - 2012 - Stony Brook - Tyler Johnson - 97.2 - 1.94 - 12 - 1
41.3 - 2012 - Florida - Jonathon Crawford - 74.2 - 3.13 - 6 - 2
41.26 - 2012 - Arkansas - Ryne Stanek - 86.2 - 2.91 - 7 - 4
41.2 - 2012 - South Carolina - Jordan Montgomery - 66.2 - 4.05 - 5 - 1
40.99 - 2012 - UCLA - Scott Griggs - 36.2 - 2.7 - 3 - 1
40.66 - 2012 - Stony Brook - Joshua Mason - 35 - 3.34 - 3 - 1
40.65 - 2012 - Arkansas - Randall Fant - 51 - 3 - 2 - 2
40.43 - 2012 - Kent State - Ryan Bores - 104.2 - 3.35 - 9 - 3
40.16 - 2012 - Arizona - T Crawford - 35 - 3.09 - 1 - 1
40.04 - 2012 - Kent State - Casey Wilson - 33.2 - 3.74 - 1 - 0
39.85 - 2012 - Florida State - Mike Compton - 85 - 2.86 - 11 - 2
39.74 - 2012 - Stony Brook - Jasvir Rakkar - 47 - 3.83 - 6 - 2
39.65 - 2012 - Kent State - Tyler Skulina - 101.2 - 3.63 - 11 - 2
39.37 - 2012 - South Carolina - Evan Beal - 47 - 4.02 - 4 - 4
39.34 - 2012 - Florida State - Gage Smith - 49 - 3.12 - 5 - 0
39.25 - 2012 - Arizona - J Farris - 99 - 4.18 - 7 - 3
39.18 - 2012 - Arizona - K Wade - 118.1 - 4.49 - 9 - 3
39.05 - 2012 - Florida State - Hunter Scantling - 47.1 - 3.99 - 5 - 1
38.81 - 2012 - Kent State - Ryan Mace - 55 - 3.27 - 2 - 3
37.69 - 2012 - UCLA - Nick Vander Tuig - 103.1 - 4.35 - 10 - 3
37.54 - 2012 - Florida State - Scott Sitz - 58.2 - 3.99 - 3 - 3
36.67 - 2012 - Arizona - S Manthei - 35.2 - 4.29 - 6 - 4
36.66 - 2012 - Arizona - M Troupe - 32.1 - 3.9 - 4 - 1
35.87 - 2012 - Florida - Johnny Magliozzi - 34 - 5.03 - 4 - 3
35.78 - 2012 - UCLA - Zack Weiss - 69 - 4.04 - 3 - 2
35.71 - 2012 - Florida State - Luke Weaver - 38 - 5.68 - 1 - 0
35.51 - 2012 - UCLA - Grant Watson - 85.2 - 4.41 - 9 - 2
33.92 - 2012 - Kent State - Michael Clark - 33 - 5.45 - 3 - 4
33.56 - 2012 - Florida - Karsten Whitson - 33.1 - 3.51 - 4 - 0
33.04 - 2012 - Florida State - Peter Miller - 40.2 - 3.98 - 5 - 2
- - - - - - -
Rating - Year - Team - Player - IP - ERA - W - L
- - - - - - -
59.41 - 2012 - Arkansas - Derrick Bleeker - 1.1 - 0 - 0 - 0
54.06 - 2012 - Arizona - A Bill - 6.2 - 0 - 0 - 0
53.83 - 2012 - Stony Brook - William Carmona - 3 - 0 - 0 - 0
53.5 - 2012 - Arizona - M Lopez - 1 - 0 - 0 - 0
53 - 2012 - South Carolina - Ethan Carter - 10 - 0 - 1 - 0
46.94 - 2012 - Florida - Keenan Kish - 24.1 - 1.85 - 0 - 0
46.86 - 2012 - Kent State - Brian Clark - 28.1 - 1.59 - 5 - 0
46.65 - 2012 - South Carolina - Hunter Privette - 9.2 - 1.86 - 1 - 0
45.31 - 2012 - Florida State - Brandon Johnson - 14.1 - 3.14 - 1 - 0
43.66 - 2012 - South Carolina - Joel Seddon - 16.1 - 2.76 - 2 - 0
43.57 - 2012 - South Carolina - Nolan Belcher - 29 - 2.17 - 4 - 2
43.11 - 2012 - Arkansas - Michael Gunn - 14 - 2.57 - 1 - 0
43.04 - 2012 - Florida - Ryan Harris - 15.2 - 3.45 - 2 - 0
42.42 - 2012 - UCLA - Ryan Deeter - 28.2 - 0.94 - 1 - 0
42 - 2012 - South Carolina - Adam Westmoreland - 22 - 2.86 - 2 - 1
41.83 - 2012 - Stony Brook - Matt Gallup - 23 - 2.35 - 4 - 0
40.32 - 2012 - UCLA - Madison Poole - 2.2 - 0 - 0 - 0
40.25 - 2012 - South Carolina - Logan Munson - 8 - 4.5 - 0 - 0
39.38 - 2012 - Florida - Bobby Poyner - 22.1 - 3.22 - 1 - 1
38.73 - 2012 - Florida State - Mack Waugh - 26 - 2.42 - 3 - 2
38.5 - 2012 - Kent State - John Birkbeck - 14.1 - 3.77 - 1 - 0
38.48 - 2012 - Florida State - Bryant Holtmann - 23.1 - 3.47 - 2 - 0
37.79 - 2012 - Arkansas - Chris Oliver - 16.1 - 3.86 - 1 - 0
37.42 - 2012 - Florida - Justin Shafer - 6 - 4.5 - 0 - 0
37.42 - 2012 - Kent State - Josh Pierce - 27.2 - 2.93 - 1 - 0
37.39 - 2012 - Arkansas - Tyler Wright - 17.1 - 2.6 - 1 - 0
37.26 - 2012 - Florida - Daniel Gibson - 24.1 - 2.96 - 1 - 1
37.1 - 2012 - Kent State - Dan Kopcak - 13.2 - 5.27 - 0 - 0
36 - 2012 - Florida - Corey Stump - 4 - 2.25 - 0 - 0
35.66 - 2012 - Arkansas - Trent Daniel - 31 - 5.23 - 2 - 0
35.37 - 2012 - South Carolina - Patrick Sullivan - 23 - 3.52 - 0 - 0
35.36 - 2012 - Kent State - Tim Faix - 13.2 - 1.98 - 1 - 0
35.25 - 2012 - UCLA - Chase Brewer - 16 - 1.69 - 2 - 0
35.03 - 2012 - Kent State - Eric Dorsch - 20 - 3.15 - 1 - 1
34.21 - 2012 - South Carolina - Forrest Koumas - 25.2 - 4.56 - 2 - 2
33.83 - 2012 - Arizona - T Hale - 20 - 4.05 - 2 - 0
32.74 - 2012 - Arizona - Littleman - 23 - 6.26 - 0 - 1
32.51 - 2012 - Stony Brook - G. C. Yerry - 16.1 - 3.31 - 1 - 0
29.97 - 2012 - Arkansas - Greg Milhorn - 5.1 - 3.38 - 0 - 0
29.86 - 2012 - Arizona - L Long - 25 - 7.2 - 2 - 2
29.5 - 2012 - Stony Brook - Josh Barry - 8 - 5.62 - 1 - 0
29.26 - 2012 - Stony Brook - Zachary Uher - 7.2 - 7.04 - 0 - 0
29.06 - 2012 - Arkansas - Mark Reyes - 7.2 - 9.39 - 1 - 0
28.88 - 2012 - Florida State - Kyle Bird - 22.2 - 6.75 - 0 - 1
28.54 - 2012 - UCLA - Zack Ortiz - 12.1 - 2.92 - 2 - 0
28.29 - 2012 - Florida State - Brian Busch - 24 - 5.25 - 0 - 1
27.63 - 2012 - Stony Brook - Bryan Tatelman - 12 - 6.75 - 1 - 0
27.17 - 2012 - Stony Brook - Nick Brass - 3 - 9 - 1 - 0
26.63 - 2012 - UCLA - Eric Jaffe - 7.2 - 0 - 1 - 0
24 - 2012 - South Carolina - Drake Thomason - 1 - 9 - 0 - 0
22.8 - 2012 - Kent State - Dan Slavik - 23 - 9.78 - 0 - 2
9.21 - 2012 - Kent State - George Roberts - 2.1 - 7.71 - 0 - 0
-1.5 - 2012 - Florida State - Evan Geist - 1 - 18 - 0 - 0
-3.75 - 2012 - Arizona - Cunningham - 4 - 15.75 - 0 - 0
-6.5 - 2012 - UCLA - Shane Zeile - 1 - 9 - 0 - 0
-196.5 - 2012 - South Carolina - Vince Fiori - 0.2 - 13.5 - 0 - 0
-596.5 - 2012 - Arkansas - Jeff Harvill - 0.1 - 27 - 0 - 0

Good info! Thanks.

McNizzle said:

Good info! Thanks.

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No problem. Hope we can find some value with some of the games.

Not sure how you have Stony Brook that big of a dog. That are prety decent in most ncaa categories. #17 national Era being a huge factor for me.

You can get line projections for other match ups using the single game predictor. Select College Baseball (below MLB in pulldown menu) and pick your teams.

http://edbemiss.com/index.php?option=com_predictor

Scalp opportunity avail on the az game if you live in Vegas. Mirage has them +120 and you can get fla state -118 at pinny.

Scalp opportunity avail on the ucla game as well. Mirage has stony at +230 and u can get ucla -225 at beteagle - though you'll need an agent to do that as beteagle is only a pph shop.

edit - nice data you put up there by the way.

edit - steam hit az when it was +130 earlier today.

Played Arizona Game 1 (finals) +105

Playing Arizona Game 2 as well -105

Don't know what to think about this game tonight. No way I would bet against Roth, but that is somewhat homerish in me. Arizona also making a pitching change and holding their ace until tomorrow. Game 1, USC should not have been the chalk. Our pitching is depleted, and our bats are as dead as I've ever seen. I think, hope, USC pulls out a victory tonight. I'll give you credit though, it takes balls to go against Roth in Omaha.

Stax said:

Don't know what to think about this game tonight. No way I would bet against Roth, but that is somewhat homerish in me. Arizona also making a pitching change and holding their ace until tomorrow. Game 1, USC should not have been the chalk. Our pitching is depleted, and our bats are as dead as I've ever seen. I think, hope, USC pulls out a victory tonight. I'll give you credit though, it takes balls to go against Roth in Omaha.

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I think Arizona is the better overall team. I also think Roth pitching on 3 days rest may negate some of the pitching advantage they may normally have in this matchup. I don't feel as strong about this play as last night, but I still think S.C is overvalued a bit in this spot. We'll see. Looking forward to the game tonight.

Do you guys think the U9 is a good play tonight?

tar_heel_in_sc said:

Do you guys think the U9 is a good play tonight?

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No real feeling. Like stax mentioned above S.C hasn't exactly been tearing the cover off the ball. 11 runs in the last 5 games. I'm making a stand against SC on the side play don't have an opinion either way on the total. Good luck whatever you decide.