Five bold Finals predictions
Why LeBron will take home the MVP trophy, and other picks
By Chris Palmer | ESPN The Magazine
The NBA Finals are upon us. There isn't much longer to wait to find out how these very eventful playoffs will play out. And the guess here is that the Miami Heat will hoist the Larry O'Brien trophy after winning in seven games. But until that happens, here are five bold predictions you can count on, on the way to Miami's second title.
1. LeBron James will win Finals MVP
James has been tossing around the phrase "no regrets" pretty liberally this postseason in almost a pre-emptive way, saying he won't be affected by the onslaught of criticism that will surely come his way should Miami end its season on a loss.
But James clearly knows what's at stake. That brings me to another James-specific phrase: locked in. As in how his teammates and coaches described him after winning Game 6 against the Celtics in single-handed fashion by putting up 45 points, 15 rebounds and five assists. It's a sure bet that James will be locked in against the Thunder with a focus we've never seen from him.
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James is in one of the best grooves of his stellar nine-year career, and expect that to continue in the most important series of his life. He is unlikely to shrink from the challenge of changing his reputation when it comes to pressure situations. He'll have biggest impact on the series and take home the Bill Russell Most Valuable Player Award.
2. Kevin Durant will average 30 points per game
The guy on the other side has been pretty locked in, too. Durant, the young three-time scoring champ, will show Miami every aspect of his brilliant offensive game and drop a career-playoff-series-best 30 points per game.
From his mix of unguardable step-backs to runners to his elegant finger rolls, Durant will be firing on all cylinders. When Durant gets on a hot streak, the Thunder are nearly impossible to beat. OKC is 9-1 when Durant scores 30 at home this season. The beauty of Durant's game is that his length is such that double-teams scarcely affect him after he's picked up his dribble and moving toward the rim. His outstretched arms have little difficulty releasing pull-ups or floaters over the defense.
But here's another positive effect of his scoring: Plenty of capable scorers will be wide open when Durant is doubled. With his improved playmaking skills and recognition of who is in better position to score when he's double- and triple-teamed, Durant has turned into a dangerous playmaker. In the conference finals, he averaged more assists than renowned creator James. But this prediction is about scoring, and Durant will be good for at least one 50-point game.
3. Russell Westbrook will outplay Dwyane Wade
Westbrook's young career has been one of trial and error. Sometimes it works when he's aggressive and offensive-minded -- his natural inclination -- and sometimes it doesn't. But Westbrook is beginning to understand the balancing act it takes to make OKC a champion. And in the battle of the No. 2s with Wade, Westbrook will emerge and prove himself as the league's best sidekick.
Westbrook will see more different defenders than any other player this series, as Miami will run Mario Chalmers, Wade and James at him -- and possibly even Norris Cole. If the Heat want to slow him down, ultimately the responsibility will fall to Wade. Westbrook won't have a similar challenge on the defensive end, as he'll be asked to shadow Chalmers. That crossmatch means Wade will need to expend a ton of energy both keeping Westbrook out of the paint and keeping up with him when he leaks out on the break.
Westbrook struggled inexplicably against the Spurs despite the fact that he was getting his normal looks, including that foul line pull-up that is nearly impossible to defend. Don't expect that trend to continue. This season, Westbrook shot a higher percentage from 15 feet than Ray Allen -- in other words, he's added the jump shot that most thought would make him unstoppable. Throughout these playoffs, Wade has been a notoriously slow starter, averaging just 5.6 points in the first half. He is simply not playing that well, and it's anybody's guess as to whether he'll break out of the funk that currently surrounds him. There is no indication he will. Expect Westbrook to be the third-best player in this series.
4. Serge Ibaka will have a bigger impact than Chris Bosh
It's probably doubtful that Ibaka has any more of those 11-for-11 perfect games up his sleeve like the one he shocked the basketball world with in Game 4 against the Spurs. But he won't need them to play a more decisive role than his Heat counterpart.
In the first three rounds, Ibaka blocked a shot of nearly every player who saw floor time against the Thunder. That's a lot of heads to get into. Ibaka's length and quickness off the floor still surprises even Western Conference opponents. The Heat are even less familiar with him, meaning they'll have to learn on the fly what shots they can get away with. In other words, they'll learn the hard way as Ibaka's block totals climb.
Another Ibaka plus: He won't have to deal with all those unblockable floaters that seem to populate the Western Conference. While Bosh is far more skilled on the offensive end, his wind still hasn't fully recovered. He needed breathers in Game 7 against Boston, playing just 31 minutes. The Thunder's up-tempo brand of ball could lessen Bosh's effectiveness over the course of the series. With Ibaka routinely sticking that midrange jumper and intimidating around the rim, he'll more than neutralize any potential impact Bosh will have.
5. Miami will win two games in OKC
Make that Games 1 and 7, specifically. The Heat know they have to leave Oklahoma City with the series tied 1-1 to avoid having to beat the Thunder three straight times in Miami -- a tall task for any squad. By winning a Game 1 on the road, the Heat would establish the tone for the series. Miami is under far more pressure in this series, so asserting itself as the aggressor early is important. Falling behind at any point in the series might cause the Heat to panic and depart from their game plan, so winning the first game would decrease the chance of that happening.
Since I see this going seven games, Miami's next road victory will come in stunning fashion in the final game of the series. The Heat have proved they can win the tough winner-take-all game (albeit at home), and it's a situation the precocious Thunder have yet to be faced with, as they've closed out their most difficult series in six games. The Heat have enough playoff miles and experience to handle adversity on the road in what would be a raucous Game 7 environment. That maturity will ensure they win the franchise's second-ever world championship.
Why LeBron will take home the MVP trophy, and other picks
By Chris Palmer | ESPN The Magazine
The NBA Finals are upon us. There isn't much longer to wait to find out how these very eventful playoffs will play out. And the guess here is that the Miami Heat will hoist the Larry O'Brien trophy after winning in seven games. But until that happens, here are five bold predictions you can count on, on the way to Miami's second title.
1. LeBron James will win Finals MVP
James has been tossing around the phrase "no regrets" pretty liberally this postseason in almost a pre-emptive way, saying he won't be affected by the onslaught of criticism that will surely come his way should Miami end its season on a loss.
But James clearly knows what's at stake. That brings me to another James-specific phrase: locked in. As in how his teammates and coaches described him after winning Game 6 against the Celtics in single-handed fashion by putting up 45 points, 15 rebounds and five assists. It's a sure bet that James will be locked in against the Thunder with a focus we've never seen from him.
<offer></offer>
James is in one of the best grooves of his stellar nine-year career, and expect that to continue in the most important series of his life. He is unlikely to shrink from the challenge of changing his reputation when it comes to pressure situations. He'll have biggest impact on the series and take home the Bill Russell Most Valuable Player Award.
2. Kevin Durant will average 30 points per game
The guy on the other side has been pretty locked in, too. Durant, the young three-time scoring champ, will show Miami every aspect of his brilliant offensive game and drop a career-playoff-series-best 30 points per game.
From his mix of unguardable step-backs to runners to his elegant finger rolls, Durant will be firing on all cylinders. When Durant gets on a hot streak, the Thunder are nearly impossible to beat. OKC is 9-1 when Durant scores 30 at home this season. The beauty of Durant's game is that his length is such that double-teams scarcely affect him after he's picked up his dribble and moving toward the rim. His outstretched arms have little difficulty releasing pull-ups or floaters over the defense.
But here's another positive effect of his scoring: Plenty of capable scorers will be wide open when Durant is doubled. With his improved playmaking skills and recognition of who is in better position to score when he's double- and triple-teamed, Durant has turned into a dangerous playmaker. In the conference finals, he averaged more assists than renowned creator James. But this prediction is about scoring, and Durant will be good for at least one 50-point game.
3. Russell Westbrook will outplay Dwyane Wade
Westbrook's young career has been one of trial and error. Sometimes it works when he's aggressive and offensive-minded -- his natural inclination -- and sometimes it doesn't. But Westbrook is beginning to understand the balancing act it takes to make OKC a champion. And in the battle of the No. 2s with Wade, Westbrook will emerge and prove himself as the league's best sidekick.
Westbrook will see more different defenders than any other player this series, as Miami will run Mario Chalmers, Wade and James at him -- and possibly even Norris Cole. If the Heat want to slow him down, ultimately the responsibility will fall to Wade. Westbrook won't have a similar challenge on the defensive end, as he'll be asked to shadow Chalmers. That crossmatch means Wade will need to expend a ton of energy both keeping Westbrook out of the paint and keeping up with him when he leaks out on the break.
Westbrook struggled inexplicably against the Spurs despite the fact that he was getting his normal looks, including that foul line pull-up that is nearly impossible to defend. Don't expect that trend to continue. This season, Westbrook shot a higher percentage from 15 feet than Ray Allen -- in other words, he's added the jump shot that most thought would make him unstoppable. Throughout these playoffs, Wade has been a notoriously slow starter, averaging just 5.6 points in the first half. He is simply not playing that well, and it's anybody's guess as to whether he'll break out of the funk that currently surrounds him. There is no indication he will. Expect Westbrook to be the third-best player in this series.
4. Serge Ibaka will have a bigger impact than Chris Bosh
It's probably doubtful that Ibaka has any more of those 11-for-11 perfect games up his sleeve like the one he shocked the basketball world with in Game 4 against the Spurs. But he won't need them to play a more decisive role than his Heat counterpart.
In the first three rounds, Ibaka blocked a shot of nearly every player who saw floor time against the Thunder. That's a lot of heads to get into. Ibaka's length and quickness off the floor still surprises even Western Conference opponents. The Heat are even less familiar with him, meaning they'll have to learn on the fly what shots they can get away with. In other words, they'll learn the hard way as Ibaka's block totals climb.
Another Ibaka plus: He won't have to deal with all those unblockable floaters that seem to populate the Western Conference. While Bosh is far more skilled on the offensive end, his wind still hasn't fully recovered. He needed breathers in Game 7 against Boston, playing just 31 minutes. The Thunder's up-tempo brand of ball could lessen Bosh's effectiveness over the course of the series. With Ibaka routinely sticking that midrange jumper and intimidating around the rim, he'll more than neutralize any potential impact Bosh will have.
5. Miami will win two games in OKC
Make that Games 1 and 7, specifically. The Heat know they have to leave Oklahoma City with the series tied 1-1 to avoid having to beat the Thunder three straight times in Miami -- a tall task for any squad. By winning a Game 1 on the road, the Heat would establish the tone for the series. Miami is under far more pressure in this series, so asserting itself as the aggressor early is important. Falling behind at any point in the series might cause the Heat to panic and depart from their game plan, so winning the first game would decrease the chance of that happening.
Since I see this going seven games, Miami's next road victory will come in stunning fashion in the final game of the series. The Heat have proved they can win the tough winner-take-all game (albeit at home), and it's a situation the precocious Thunder have yet to be faced with, as they've closed out their most difficult series in six games. The Heat have enough playoff miles and experience to handle adversity on the road in what would be a raucous Game 7 environment. That maturity will ensure they win the franchise's second-ever world championship.
