The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - June 14, 2012 - YTD: 166-162-16

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2012 MLB O/U Record: 166-162-16, -$1,371 (Been makingbigger bets this year, with countless bad breaks, obviously)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104


Just another comical oddity in my 2012 season, as my best bet Happ vs Cain under turned out to be a perfect game… yet I still couldn’t pick up the victory. Not that I deserved it, as I was WRONG on JA Happ, which I’m embarrassed about because he’s one of my top three favorite pitchers, although I do know he will turn it around again considerably at some point this year, much like he did last year after returning to the bigs from an extended Triple-A stint. In any case, that game last night was the FOURTH no-hitter/perfect game this year that I had the under in, and what’s my record to show for it in those unders? 2-2; just a microcosm of my season. In fact, each perfect game was an under that was my best bet of the evening, so that tells me my over/under senses are still working, despite not getting the results this year so I just have to keep pushing to get back into my rhythm. Let’s see what we got today…


Johan Santana vs Jeremy Hellickson UNDER7.5 - $32 for $27
Just a smaller-sized afternoon bet to kick things off on this Thursday. The previous two games in this interesting Mets/Rays series have all been overs so I’m counting on both pitchers to cool down each team’s bats. Johan Santana, after all, is still pretty fresh off the historic Mets first no-hitter in franchise history (Living in NY, believe me, alot of Met fans I know never thought they’d see one in their lifetime), and despite getting tagged in his last start by the crosstown-rival Yankees, I see him getting back into form here today. One great stat to back me up on that ishis domination during daytime games this year, as he’s made five starts and posted a 2-1 record with a 1.13 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and .191 BAA. Jeremy Hellickson, meanwhile, just continues to defy all the sabremetric experts in continuing to pump out quality start after quality start. Actually, his last start was a rare exception, as he walked a career high 7 in less than five innings of work (108 pitches), prompting him to be taken out in his second shortest start of the season. “I had no idea where the ball was going,” he said afterwards. “It was not a good feeling out there.” I mention those quotes because if a pitcher has that awful feeling about his last start, odds are he’ll be extra motivated to get back on track in effort of avoiding a similar atrocious feeling in his next outing. He’s got a good chance to do that against this Mets lineup, especially in the cozy confines of Tropicana Field where he has a 1.59 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in seven starts this season. Hopefully he continues to do just that at home.


**Will Add More Over/Under(s) ThroughoutDay Leading Up To Gametime**
(In the meantime, watch that Parker vs White line throughout the day to see if it goes to 11. If it does, it’s worth a solid bet)
 
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Ah not surprised by that under loss in Santana vs Hellickson., especially when I've been calling for a potential demise of Jeremy Hellickson for weeks now - pissed I missed the boat on it in this game. This was a case where I went more so by stats than vibe, which isn't usually a successful formula for winning consistently because if stats usually pointed to wins, we'd all be rich, and in this case, just about every stat pointed to the under, but over/unders don't work like that so this one's 100-percent my fault. However, here's a game that is mostly derived from vibe, with okay supporting evidence...


Oakland Athletics @ Colorado Rockies
Jarrod Parker vs Alex White
UNDER 10.5

What an unlikely intriguing series this has been through the first two games, as both offenses have been lighting up the scoreboard. The Rockies are proving they can still score in bunches, even without their two studs Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki, while the A’s have really been flashing an unlikely burst of offensive mojo. As a result, the lines-makers took an extra cautious approach to this over/under in making it 10.5, which is something we can use to our advantage as it pertains to the under with an emerging star like Jarrod Parker on the hill. Parker has been mostly good this year, having allowed a measly two runs or LESS in seven of his nine starts this year. Despite a rough performance in his last outing in Arizona over the weekend, it wasn’t as bad as the final numbers may point to, as he was mostly done in by a late-inning grand slam (It was 1-1 in the bottom of the 5th), plus he had to deal with the tough-for-a-young-pitcher variable of having to pitch on the road against the team he came up with, which only served him with extra adversity besides thelineup he was dealing against. Hopefully that was an experience that served in helping build Parker’s character and make-up as a pitcher, which might help him bounce back in this next start, even at hitter-friendly Coors Field.

On the other side of the equation is Alex White, who I’ve mentioned a few times this year as an underrated young pitcher that has a fine Major League career ahead of him. In fact, I think he’ll carve out a nice little role in that Rockies starting rotation, which is awfully tough to do, but this is a guy who had a decent amount of potential coming over from Cleveland a year ago. While pitching at Coors is never fun, White has held his own, at least up to this point, registering two quality starts out of his four total home outings thus far, with the other two seeing him go at least five innings, which is also a positive sign. In other words, he’s making adjustments and simply learning how to pitch in Colorado, which usually requires a different technique compared to most ballparks. The Athletics offense has been hot this series, but usually they’re not this efficient, so hopefully the Law of Averages kicks in to bring their bats back down to earth, which could easily happen as White continues his unlikely string of solid pitching at home. At the very least, with the line so high, we do have a decent margin for error in this specific contest. Even a 6-4/7-3 affair will win it for us.


**Will Still Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
 
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And the $$ amount I have on Parker vs White under 10.5 is $55 for $55. That looks like it'll be my biggest bet of the day.
 
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Adding two more...

Hudson vs Feldman UNDER 10.5 - $22 for $17
Blanton vs Diamond UNDER 9.5 - $15 for $13
 
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Also, this is an interesting night we have on tap... Every afternoon game went over 8 runs (4 of the 5 were officially overs), meaning it's more likely we'll see lower scoring games here tonight. Obviously one game doesn't actually impact another game in another country, but trust me, the Law of Averages exists in more ways than you might believe. I'm so attached to over/unders that this is another concept I'll pay attention to to see if it rings true
 

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