Yesterday 0 1 0 -2.12 Units
Last 30 Days 34 32 0 +21.66 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2012) 72 83 0 +4.40 Units
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise
Philadelphia +112 over TORONTO
The Blue Jays have just one win in their past seven games. Drew Hutchison has done well in his first exposure to major league hitting. He had outstanding command in the minors and he’s brought that with him to the majors. Four of Hutchison’s 10 starts have been really good and xERA shows that he’s got the potential to be a solid contributor. However, a 26% line-drive rate is concerning and so is the five jacks he’s allowed in his past four starts. Hutchison had a quick rise through the minors. With only had 32 IP at AA, and none at AAA, it wouldn’t be surprising to see some struggles at this level. He’ll be facing a Phillies team that has scored 4.9 runs per game since May 7, which is the fourth best mark in the majors. Vance Worley is the forgotten man in Philadelphia as Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, and Roy Halladay are justifiably the headline grabbers. Worley went 11-3 with a 3.01 ERA in 132 IP last season and the Phillies won their first 14 straight games that he started. He missed a couple of weeks in May with a bone chip but threw a six-inning gem against the Orioles in his second game back. Worley has 54 K’s and just 19 walks in 54 frames. He has a strong 50% groundball profile and his 3.00 ERA is right in line with his skills supported 3.18 xERA. After playing well at home, Toronto was just swept by the Nationals and a reeling team looking to a very green rookie spotting a tag is too risky for our liking. Play: Philadelphia +112 (Risking 2 units).
N.Y. METS -113 over Cincinnati
The Mets are not only seeing beach balls at the plate right now but they’ve played extremely well at home all season long. They’re coming off a three game sweep in Tampa in which they scored an incredible 29 runs against one of the best staffs in the league. They’ll take a step down in class when facing Bronson Arroyo and the Reds’ staff. Current Mets have faced Arroyo 125 times and have hit .280 against him with a .324 OBP and a .724 OPS. Arroyo has allowed four runs or more in four of his past six starts and has a BAA this season of .290. If you haven't hopped on the Dillon Gee bandwagon by now because of his pedestrian 4.42 ERA, it’s time to change your thinking. Gee has a 3.21 xERA, an elite 54% groundball rate, 70 K’s in 77 innings, with just 22 walks issued. These are outstanding skills that have not been rewarded and as a result of his misleading surface numbers, we get a nice underlay on the Mets as a small favorite. Play N.Y. Mets -113 (Risking 2 units to win 1.74).
Last 30 Days 34 32 0 +21.66 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2012) 72 83 0 +4.40 Units
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise
Philadelphia +112 over TORONTO
The Blue Jays have just one win in their past seven games. Drew Hutchison has done well in his first exposure to major league hitting. He had outstanding command in the minors and he’s brought that with him to the majors. Four of Hutchison’s 10 starts have been really good and xERA shows that he’s got the potential to be a solid contributor. However, a 26% line-drive rate is concerning and so is the five jacks he’s allowed in his past four starts. Hutchison had a quick rise through the minors. With only had 32 IP at AA, and none at AAA, it wouldn’t be surprising to see some struggles at this level. He’ll be facing a Phillies team that has scored 4.9 runs per game since May 7, which is the fourth best mark in the majors. Vance Worley is the forgotten man in Philadelphia as Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, and Roy Halladay are justifiably the headline grabbers. Worley went 11-3 with a 3.01 ERA in 132 IP last season and the Phillies won their first 14 straight games that he started. He missed a couple of weeks in May with a bone chip but threw a six-inning gem against the Orioles in his second game back. Worley has 54 K’s and just 19 walks in 54 frames. He has a strong 50% groundball profile and his 3.00 ERA is right in line with his skills supported 3.18 xERA. After playing well at home, Toronto was just swept by the Nationals and a reeling team looking to a very green rookie spotting a tag is too risky for our liking. Play: Philadelphia +112 (Risking 2 units).
N.Y. METS -113 over Cincinnati
The Mets are not only seeing beach balls at the plate right now but they’ve played extremely well at home all season long. They’re coming off a three game sweep in Tampa in which they scored an incredible 29 runs against one of the best staffs in the league. They’ll take a step down in class when facing Bronson Arroyo and the Reds’ staff. Current Mets have faced Arroyo 125 times and have hit .280 against him with a .324 OBP and a .724 OPS. Arroyo has allowed four runs or more in four of his past six starts and has a BAA this season of .290. If you haven't hopped on the Dillon Gee bandwagon by now because of his pedestrian 4.42 ERA, it’s time to change your thinking. Gee has a 3.21 xERA, an elite 54% groundball rate, 70 K’s in 77 innings, with just 22 walks issued. These are outstanding skills that have not been rewarded and as a result of his misleading surface numbers, we get a nice underlay on the Mets as a small favorite. Play N.Y. Mets -113 (Risking 2 units to win 1.74).
