2012 MLB O/U Record: 168-165-16, -$1,372 (Been making bigger bets this year, with countless bad breaks, obviously)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
The way my luck has gone this year, I’m not even safe from fluke BS in best bet victories, such as yesterday’s victorious Parker vs White under 10.5. As I anticipated, emerging star Jarrod Parker threw an absolute seven-inning gem, while Alex White was pitching solidly without the three errors that plagued his statline. That’s not even the BS I’m referring to… it was 5-0 in the ninth inning, before the Athletics tacked on three more to make it 8-0. So, I figure, okay, I still have plenty of room. Well, it turned out being barely any room as the Rockies strung together a pair of runs and initiated much drama throughout the country as it pertains to whoever took the under, considering the winning run (For the over) was actually on second base, despite not being deserved of even coming close to the over. Luckily, Brian Fuentes was able to close it out, but the unnecessary stress that preceded it easily took away from the fun of an easy victory. Time to move on to this Friday night slate…
Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers (Best Bet) - $110 for $100 ($60 for $50 on O9.5, $50 for $50 on O10)
Jeff Francis vs Casey Crosby
OVER9 .5/10
I’m banging my head against the wall over not securing more on this game when it opened up at 9.5. Just a foolish mistake on my part, as initially, I thought this game had no chance of being listed under 10, given the pitchers involved and the high-octane offenses scheduled to bat in this evening’s contest. In fact, these two pitchers weren’t even in the big leagues a few weeks ago, but ah, the beauty of baseball. Now they’re front and center for one of my daily best bets, not to mention front and center on a national stage in an MLB Network Friday night showdown (For those around the country not getting the Yankees/Nationals game).
Before I begin the analysis, let me warn you that I was actually a pathetic 3-7-2 in Jeff Francis over/unders last season (He was one of my worst pitchers) when he was a member of the Royals, partially because I’ve always had a soft spot for the southpaw in believing that he was simply an underrated pitcher stuck in the unfortunate situation of having to pitch in Colorado forjust about his entire career, which held him back from reaching his full potential. Thus, I forced a lot of unders that involved him in 2011, and the result was a gaudy record in his games. One year later, I know better - well,with the help of Francis’ first start when he was shelled by the Angels for eight runs and ten hits over 3.1 innings. In addition, he was only able to strike out one batter (Interestingly, it was one of the best hitters in the game, Mark Trumbo). Considering this is a similar destructive offense he’ll be facing here tonight, the chances of a quality start do not bode well for Jeff Francis. The Tigers have fought their way back to respectability after being the biggest underachievers in all of Major League Baseball the entire season,and now only a handful games out of first place with every team in front of them clearly in sight, they have to recognize opportunities like a date with a hittable lefty cannot be taken for granted.
Speaking of hittable lefties, there’s a term that can also be applied to the other pitcher in this Rockies/Tigers contest, Casey Crosby. Through two starts thus far in his Major League career, the Tigers’ rookie southpaw has shown nothing really at all; first beingp ounded by the Yankees for six runs in just over three innings, then strugglinga bit more against the Indians in his last start, although he did manage to escape that last outing with a victory. Still, with a WHIP of almost 2, it’s apparent that Crosby has trouble putting together quality consecutive innings, if even one at all where he goes 1-2-3, and against a very potent offense like Colorado that is right up there in every major offensive category (And, on this night, will have extra hitter in the form of a DH), Crosby will not be able to escape repeated jams he may encounter. Also consider the fact that both lineups sit in the top half of the league against left-handed pitching and that means the significant split stat sits in our favor as well. There should be at least one crooked number on the scoreboard when all is said and done so even with the line at 10, everything taken into consideration appears to be indicative for an over.
Other 6/15 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Bronson Arroyo vs Dillon Gee UNDER 8 -$38 for $30 (Arroyo just pitched very well in New York a few Fridays ago so he’s still capable of handling the tough road New York variable. Gee’s stock appears to be going up, too)
**Will Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
(Trying to wait and see if Chris Sale vs Clayton Kershaw goes up to 6. I HATE when Vegas does that to a pitching matchup and labels it 5.5. It’s just stupid and not fair because it’s easy to be right about the pitching matchup and lose because of the bullpen in those instances)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
The way my luck has gone this year, I’m not even safe from fluke BS in best bet victories, such as yesterday’s victorious Parker vs White under 10.5. As I anticipated, emerging star Jarrod Parker threw an absolute seven-inning gem, while Alex White was pitching solidly without the three errors that plagued his statline. That’s not even the BS I’m referring to… it was 5-0 in the ninth inning, before the Athletics tacked on three more to make it 8-0. So, I figure, okay, I still have plenty of room. Well, it turned out being barely any room as the Rockies strung together a pair of runs and initiated much drama throughout the country as it pertains to whoever took the under, considering the winning run (For the over) was actually on second base, despite not being deserved of even coming close to the over. Luckily, Brian Fuentes was able to close it out, but the unnecessary stress that preceded it easily took away from the fun of an easy victory. Time to move on to this Friday night slate…
Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers (Best Bet) - $110 for $100 ($60 for $50 on O9.5, $50 for $50 on O10)
Jeff Francis vs Casey Crosby
OVER9 .5/10
I’m banging my head against the wall over not securing more on this game when it opened up at 9.5. Just a foolish mistake on my part, as initially, I thought this game had no chance of being listed under 10, given the pitchers involved and the high-octane offenses scheduled to bat in this evening’s contest. In fact, these two pitchers weren’t even in the big leagues a few weeks ago, but ah, the beauty of baseball. Now they’re front and center for one of my daily best bets, not to mention front and center on a national stage in an MLB Network Friday night showdown (For those around the country not getting the Yankees/Nationals game).
Before I begin the analysis, let me warn you that I was actually a pathetic 3-7-2 in Jeff Francis over/unders last season (He was one of my worst pitchers) when he was a member of the Royals, partially because I’ve always had a soft spot for the southpaw in believing that he was simply an underrated pitcher stuck in the unfortunate situation of having to pitch in Colorado forjust about his entire career, which held him back from reaching his full potential. Thus, I forced a lot of unders that involved him in 2011, and the result was a gaudy record in his games. One year later, I know better - well,with the help of Francis’ first start when he was shelled by the Angels for eight runs and ten hits over 3.1 innings. In addition, he was only able to strike out one batter (Interestingly, it was one of the best hitters in the game, Mark Trumbo). Considering this is a similar destructive offense he’ll be facing here tonight, the chances of a quality start do not bode well for Jeff Francis. The Tigers have fought their way back to respectability after being the biggest underachievers in all of Major League Baseball the entire season,and now only a handful games out of first place with every team in front of them clearly in sight, they have to recognize opportunities like a date with a hittable lefty cannot be taken for granted.
Speaking of hittable lefties, there’s a term that can also be applied to the other pitcher in this Rockies/Tigers contest, Casey Crosby. Through two starts thus far in his Major League career, the Tigers’ rookie southpaw has shown nothing really at all; first beingp ounded by the Yankees for six runs in just over three innings, then strugglinga bit more against the Indians in his last start, although he did manage to escape that last outing with a victory. Still, with a WHIP of almost 2, it’s apparent that Crosby has trouble putting together quality consecutive innings, if even one at all where he goes 1-2-3, and against a very potent offense like Colorado that is right up there in every major offensive category (And, on this night, will have extra hitter in the form of a DH), Crosby will not be able to escape repeated jams he may encounter. Also consider the fact that both lineups sit in the top half of the league against left-handed pitching and that means the significant split stat sits in our favor as well. There should be at least one crooked number on the scoreboard when all is said and done so even with the line at 10, everything taken into consideration appears to be indicative for an over.
Other 6/15 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Bronson Arroyo vs Dillon Gee UNDER 8 -$38 for $30 (Arroyo just pitched very well in New York a few Fridays ago so he’s still capable of handling the tough road New York variable. Gee’s stock appears to be going up, too)
**Will Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
(Trying to wait and see if Chris Sale vs Clayton Kershaw goes up to 6. I HATE when Vegas does that to a pitching matchup and labels it 5.5. It’s just stupid and not fair because it’s easy to be right about the pitching matchup and lose because of the bullpen in those instances)
