Saturday: interleague play- AL surge this weekend? YTD: 124-111, +32.5 units

ofred · Jun 16, 2012

Hitting my top plays, not my smaller ones. Great day Thursday, 6-1, and Friday hit the top 2 plays. I am going to look long and hard for AL winners even though the NL has played this past week about .500 with the AL. Dodgers, Braves and Nats are definitely good enough to compete in the AL, while the Mets and Reds also have played well.

Red Sox: I am pissed that I didn't notice that Friday's game was a day game. I liked the Cubs for first 5 innings, but never got the bet in. Saturday will be different. Cubs are dead last vs. lefties, hitting only .222- and their only 2 guys that hit them have 0 HRs (Mather and Castro). Lester has not pitched against a weak hitting team since the Twins in late April, while Samardjiza has faced some of the NL cream puffs (especially when they weren't hitting) . Lester has had some bad breaks, but there is nothing really wrong with him. Red Sox hit righties for .269, have a better bullpen, and probably can't imagine losing 2 games in a row to the worst team in the majors. I have a feeling this game is important to them. That being said, the Sox haven't got the team to compete in the AL East, but do have a far better team than the Cubs. -1 for 2 units.

ofred · Jun 16, 2012

Can't seem to hit my unders, but overs yes. This over at 8 seems like a great deal-LAA/ Arizona. one unit. Santana has lost it. He has good stuff, but mentally he can't overcome his lost command and tough out a win. His last 20 IPs: 23 runs, 6 homers, 14 walks and only 11 Ks. And 2 of these games were against the punchless Mariners. Plus, the Angels leave him in there to eat up innings even when he's getting killed. Saunders is better, but he has been lucky with men LOB. In his last 38.2 IPs, 57 hits! This will catch up to him and the Angels are due for a break out. They can hit, have some power, speed and patience at the plate. They have also faced some very tough pitching as of late. Arizona is also heating up (finally). D-Back BP is not good which might come into play. They can hit for power too.

Angels/ D-Backs. One unit first 5 innings (hope to get at 4)

ofred · Jun 16, 2012

Damn. The Padres have about 4 or 5 starters on the DL. Now they have turned to Ross Ohlendorf. This is a guy they hope pitches better than he did in AAA Pawtucket where he had a 4.61 ERA and 57 hits in 52 IPs. He is also 3-14 in his last 17 mlb starts. I hate to use the term"loser", but Ohlendorf knows how to do that very well. Tyson Ross pitched well for the A's at the beginning of the year, then got bombed, then was sent to the minors. After pitching well, he is back- hopefully to show that early season form. He definitely has a much better chance of a good outing than Ohlendorf. I also like that the A's are hitting much better now, even better than the Padres. 57 runs in their last 8 games. One unit -1.

Also one unit -1/2 A's first 5 innings.

ofred · Jun 16, 2012

Twins. One unit. ML. Liam Hendriks got bombed his last call up. He then went to AAA and absolutely dominated. He doesn't have ace stuff, but his command is supposedly as good as it gets. He's crafty and had only 29 hits in 46 IPs. Fiers for Milwaukee is a similar type pitcher, with good command. But in his last 2 starts has 18 hits in 11 IPs vs. Pitt and SD. I also believe that the Brewers lack emotion this year and just seem flat. They are missing the big personalities of Fielder and Morgan, have a placid manger, and this might be why they are playing mediocre. The Twins, on the other hand, are hitting much better than earlier in the season, have a fiery manager, and usually play fundamentally sound.

ofred · Jun 16, 2012

Angels / Arizona: over- first 5 (see above)

ofred · Jun 16, 2012

Notice a pattern here. AL teams. KC presents a nice underdog of about +125. ML. one unit. Joe Kelly throws mid-90s, but is not a strikeout pitcher (even in AAA) because he has no out pitch. If his sinking fastball isn't fooling hitters, he gets in trouble. KC is a much better team on the road and Bruce Chen is almost always completive. Cardinal hitters, in Saturday's tentative lineup, are 3 for 26 off of him. KC also has a BP edge.

ofred · Jun 16, 2012

Baltimore. ML for one unit. Let me make a case for Jason Hammel. He has faced not one pussy hitting team in his last 10 starts. He has pitched in Fenway twice, vs. NYY twice, Toronto twice, KC and CWS (mid-level hitting teams), the Phils now that they are finally hitting and the Nats. Beachy has faced much weaker opponents. Both pitchers have added to their ERA, but that's expected since they were way below the norm for them. With lineups and bullpens being about equal, I'm going with the AL team and +142.

ofred · Jun 16, 2012

I'm going out on a limb here, but I'm taking Texas one unit(on the small side). New pitcher from the minors might add a little excitement to the home crowd, make the players "play up" to support the rookie. The Astros are also starting to swoon, their defense is one of the worst, and the bullpen is slipping. Harrell is not a bad pitcher, but lately he's been getting knocked around. This is also a classic AL top tier team vs. a lower tier NL team. One unit RL.

ofred · Jun 16, 2012

Note from Milwaukee: Nyjer Morgan is back from the DL. Still think the Brewers play flat.

ofred · Jun 16, 2012

LAD: One NL team is playing above the rest (Nats too- make that 2). The Dodgers got to Sale last night in his worst performance of the year. Imagine what they can do to Humber, who has been awful as of late. That perfect game has almost been a curse. The White Sox hit Kershaw well, but they can't seem to do that 2 games in a row and maintain momentum. Dodgers also have the better BP and at home. Not a big Billingsley fan, but he has been good of late. Only 2 HRs in last 7 starts. Two units -1.

ofred · Jun 16, 2012

Like both of these TT:
Dodgers over 3.5
LAA over 4
*Both one unit.

Saturday: interleague play- AL surge this weekend? YTD: 124-111, +32.5 units

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