2012 MLB O/U Record: 169-167-16, -$1,332 (Been makingbigger bets this year, with countless bad breaks, obviously)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Only 1-2 yesterday, but that one win was my significant best bet in Francis vs Crosby over, which allowed me to be up for the day. Just trying to string together consecutive days of winning production at this point, as I seek to restore my full confidence that can allow me to put together a much bigger run, and more importantly, allow me to get back into my rhythm, since you can’t win consistently without your normal confidence and mindset. Let’s see what over/unders today has to offer us…
**Dollar Amounts For Later Games To Be Posted Later Leading Up To Gametime**
San Diego Padres @ Oakland Athletics - $70 for $65
Ross Ohlendorf vs Tyson Ross
UNDER 8.5
Well, well, well. Look who’s back as a starter in the big leagues… it’s Ross Ohlendorf! Much like Felipe Paulino, Ohlendorf is one of those guys that will always have a small place in my heart, as it was him who picked up the deciding victory in my futures Pirates Over 67 Wins bet (Paulino, as I’ve mentioned, did the same for me in 2009 with the Astros Over 73 Wins), and to this point, those are the two biggest bets I’ve done in my life. Thus, there may be some bias involved while I talk about Ohlendorf, but the fact of the matter is that he’s been a quality pitcher before, and getting another shot at The Show, he can easily attain some of that success yet again, just as we’ve seen countless others do in their extra opportunities. For one, Ohlendorf is a graduate of Princeton, and has always had a reputation for being one of the smartest pitchers in all of baseball.That being known, while his minor league numbers weren’t that great this year, he has to realize this could be his last shot, and possessing decent stuff, he is certainly capable of handling an Athletics offense that isn’t ranked among the best. Furthermore, at least we know this isn’t Ohlendorf’s first appearance back, as he’s made two thus far, including one last week in which he occupied along relief role in four-plus quality innings at Milwaukee, even picking up a victory as he took over for Andrew Cashner. We don’t need absolute greatness from Ohlendorf on this afternoon - just a decent start in Oakland, which, as I said, he is more than capable of providing us. He’s always been a streaky pitcher, and since his last appearance was lengthy and successful, I believe Ohlendorf can successfully follow that up.
The other half of this starting pitching matchup, Tyson Ross, has rarely brought about any sort of under vibe from me this year, which makes this bet all that more appealing, or at least to me. Here we have someone that’s been struggling in 2012, but that was before he went back to the minor leagues for a couple of weeks, which could have gotten him back on track. After all, this was someone who was actually having significant success last year before getting hurt, especially when he strung together four consecutive terrific starts from late-April to mid-May in which he went at least six innings and only allowed two runs or less in each of them. Ross has the potential to be a mainstay in that Athletics rotation, and with some oftheir guys dropping due to injury, this is the perfect chance for Ross to retain a spot on the pitching staff and hold it for awhile. That’s basically what this pitching matchup is - a battle between two guys who have had success before,and who have been given new life that they need to seize in order to survive in the Major Leagues, or their careers are in jeopardy. It’s a decently high line so there is room for error as well on this Saturday afternoon.
Baltimore Orioles @ Atlanta Braves
Jason Hammel vs Brandon Beachy
OVER 8 (Wait till gametime to see if line drops to 7.5)
I was hoping the over/under for this pitching matchup would be a tad bit lower, like it should be, because afterall, it’s essentially a matchup between two aces of good teams, given how their seasons have played out thus far. Pitching for Baltimore is their newfoundleader in the rotation, the veteran Jason Hammel, who most people wrote off awhile ago when he was floundering in Colorado and Tampa Bay. But you know what,he’s had this potential to be a decent upper-rotation pitcher, and in helping the Orioles attain a lengthy first-place lead in arguably the toughest divisionin baseball, it’s clear that he is legitimate. In case you haven’t noticed, Hammelis 6-2 with a 3.22 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and a real solid 69:27 K:BB ratio in 72 IP. Basically, his 2012 season has been marvelous, even contributing great outings in the toughest of starts against teams like the Yankees and Red Sox. However,Hammel, at least lately, appears to be losing some steam. I really like his progression this year; I really do. But, at the end of the day, I truly thinkhe’s going to pan out as a Justin Masterson/Rick Helling/Pedro Astacio type ace - one that can win you a lot of ballgames and put together long streaks of quality pitching, but in-between, there’s always that potential that he could get roughed up a bit by a good lineup. That’s actually started happening already, as Hammel has been tagged for four runs in four of his past six starts, a sign that he’s coming back down to earth. That said, I believe this is another spot where he’ll give up some runs.
Speaking of guys coming back down to earth, we might be able to say the same for Braves’ youngster Brandon Beachy,who has been absolutely tremendous this year. With an ERA less than 2 and aWHIP of exactly 1.00, Beachy looks like a sure thing to make the NL all-starteam - if not start it - after basically cruising this entire season. After all, this is someone who has given up two runs or less in ALL but one of his 12starts this year! That’s just incredible, especially since he’s gone at leastfive innings in each of them. With that known, it’s easy to label Beachy as a model of consistency, but from watching this guy, there are ways to beat him,and in that ONE off start he’s had all year, that was an over I took because I thought he would get tagged a bit, and he did that evening in Cincinnati when they scored four runs off him (Of course, with my luck this year, despite being 100-percent right in that game, I was not rewarded with the victory in that one,losing by half a run). So, if my Beachy over vibes were able to sense his one off start this year, it could detect a second instance, which we may see righthere. Vegas is obviously leaning on the over, having made the line as high asit is in order to protect themselves from the very possible 5-3/6-2 outcome, so the over here appears to be a solid bet.
Other 6/16 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Andy Pettitte vs Jordan Zimmerman UNDER7.5 - $18 for $15
Cliff Lee vs Ricky Romero UNDER 7.5(Waiting to see if line goes to 8)
**Will Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
(Humber vs Billingsley under will also be one of my biggest bets today. May add a write-up for it later)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Only 1-2 yesterday, but that one win was my significant best bet in Francis vs Crosby over, which allowed me to be up for the day. Just trying to string together consecutive days of winning production at this point, as I seek to restore my full confidence that can allow me to put together a much bigger run, and more importantly, allow me to get back into my rhythm, since you can’t win consistently without your normal confidence and mindset. Let’s see what over/unders today has to offer us…
**Dollar Amounts For Later Games To Be Posted Later Leading Up To Gametime**
San Diego Padres @ Oakland Athletics - $70 for $65
Ross Ohlendorf vs Tyson Ross
UNDER 8.5
Well, well, well. Look who’s back as a starter in the big leagues… it’s Ross Ohlendorf! Much like Felipe Paulino, Ohlendorf is one of those guys that will always have a small place in my heart, as it was him who picked up the deciding victory in my futures Pirates Over 67 Wins bet (Paulino, as I’ve mentioned, did the same for me in 2009 with the Astros Over 73 Wins), and to this point, those are the two biggest bets I’ve done in my life. Thus, there may be some bias involved while I talk about Ohlendorf, but the fact of the matter is that he’s been a quality pitcher before, and getting another shot at The Show, he can easily attain some of that success yet again, just as we’ve seen countless others do in their extra opportunities. For one, Ohlendorf is a graduate of Princeton, and has always had a reputation for being one of the smartest pitchers in all of baseball.That being known, while his minor league numbers weren’t that great this year, he has to realize this could be his last shot, and possessing decent stuff, he is certainly capable of handling an Athletics offense that isn’t ranked among the best. Furthermore, at least we know this isn’t Ohlendorf’s first appearance back, as he’s made two thus far, including one last week in which he occupied along relief role in four-plus quality innings at Milwaukee, even picking up a victory as he took over for Andrew Cashner. We don’t need absolute greatness from Ohlendorf on this afternoon - just a decent start in Oakland, which, as I said, he is more than capable of providing us. He’s always been a streaky pitcher, and since his last appearance was lengthy and successful, I believe Ohlendorf can successfully follow that up.
The other half of this starting pitching matchup, Tyson Ross, has rarely brought about any sort of under vibe from me this year, which makes this bet all that more appealing, or at least to me. Here we have someone that’s been struggling in 2012, but that was before he went back to the minor leagues for a couple of weeks, which could have gotten him back on track. After all, this was someone who was actually having significant success last year before getting hurt, especially when he strung together four consecutive terrific starts from late-April to mid-May in which he went at least six innings and only allowed two runs or less in each of them. Ross has the potential to be a mainstay in that Athletics rotation, and with some oftheir guys dropping due to injury, this is the perfect chance for Ross to retain a spot on the pitching staff and hold it for awhile. That’s basically what this pitching matchup is - a battle between two guys who have had success before,and who have been given new life that they need to seize in order to survive in the Major Leagues, or their careers are in jeopardy. It’s a decently high line so there is room for error as well on this Saturday afternoon.
Baltimore Orioles @ Atlanta Braves
Jason Hammel vs Brandon Beachy
OVER 8 (Wait till gametime to see if line drops to 7.5)
I was hoping the over/under for this pitching matchup would be a tad bit lower, like it should be, because afterall, it’s essentially a matchup between two aces of good teams, given how their seasons have played out thus far. Pitching for Baltimore is their newfoundleader in the rotation, the veteran Jason Hammel, who most people wrote off awhile ago when he was floundering in Colorado and Tampa Bay. But you know what,he’s had this potential to be a decent upper-rotation pitcher, and in helping the Orioles attain a lengthy first-place lead in arguably the toughest divisionin baseball, it’s clear that he is legitimate. In case you haven’t noticed, Hammelis 6-2 with a 3.22 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and a real solid 69:27 K:BB ratio in 72 IP. Basically, his 2012 season has been marvelous, even contributing great outings in the toughest of starts against teams like the Yankees and Red Sox. However,Hammel, at least lately, appears to be losing some steam. I really like his progression this year; I really do. But, at the end of the day, I truly thinkhe’s going to pan out as a Justin Masterson/Rick Helling/Pedro Astacio type ace - one that can win you a lot of ballgames and put together long streaks of quality pitching, but in-between, there’s always that potential that he could get roughed up a bit by a good lineup. That’s actually started happening already, as Hammel has been tagged for four runs in four of his past six starts, a sign that he’s coming back down to earth. That said, I believe this is another spot where he’ll give up some runs.
Speaking of guys coming back down to earth, we might be able to say the same for Braves’ youngster Brandon Beachy,who has been absolutely tremendous this year. With an ERA less than 2 and aWHIP of exactly 1.00, Beachy looks like a sure thing to make the NL all-starteam - if not start it - after basically cruising this entire season. After all, this is someone who has given up two runs or less in ALL but one of his 12starts this year! That’s just incredible, especially since he’s gone at leastfive innings in each of them. With that known, it’s easy to label Beachy as a model of consistency, but from watching this guy, there are ways to beat him,and in that ONE off start he’s had all year, that was an over I took because I thought he would get tagged a bit, and he did that evening in Cincinnati when they scored four runs off him (Of course, with my luck this year, despite being 100-percent right in that game, I was not rewarded with the victory in that one,losing by half a run). So, if my Beachy over vibes were able to sense his one off start this year, it could detect a second instance, which we may see righthere. Vegas is obviously leaning on the over, having made the line as high asit is in order to protect themselves from the very possible 5-3/6-2 outcome, so the over here appears to be a solid bet.
Other 6/16 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Andy Pettitte vs Jordan Zimmerman UNDER7.5 - $18 for $15
Cliff Lee vs Ricky Romero UNDER 7.5(Waiting to see if line goes to 8)
**Will Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
(Humber vs Billingsley under will also be one of my biggest bets today. May add a write-up for it later)
