US OPEN Hedge Question.

Dude · Jun 17, 2012

I bet Furyk at 38-1 before the tournament started for 25 bucks. He and Mcdowell are both plus 250 to win and Westwood is 6-1 and Tiger is 14-1. I absolutely think it is between Furyk and Mcdowell. Any opinions on what you would do at this point? Thanks.

REDEYE · Jun 17, 2012

Westwood can do it IMO

Dude · Jun 17, 2012

I was thinking of that but he is 3 back and has the never won a major label. Just don't think both Furyk and Mcdowell will collapse enough for him to take it. I guess putting 50 bucks on him wouldn't hurt.

Dude · Jun 17, 2012

dsethi said:
i wouldn't touch it personally. % of players tied or winning going into the last round of a tournament is historically around 20-25% I believe (at least over the past 4 years?).

I think anyone within 4 shots of the lead right now has a chance. Given how hard the first 6 holes are playing a lead can be erased quickly.

I didn't know that about the percentage. Thanks..I guess I will try and wait till sometime today before they all tee off to see if I can find some other stats to see if it is worth it to try and hedge.

Dude · Jun 17, 2012

dsethi said:
McDowell folded earlier this year when he was H2H with Tiger if I remember correctly.

Field is -335 against Furyk, why not throw a few on that line to cover your original bet and then a little on top, then sit back and enjoy pulling for your guy on Sunday?

Good Point. Worth it to put a little something to cover original bet..

paftraft · Jun 17, 2012

It's simple.
You now have Furyk 25 to win 950

5 Dimes right now has Furyk to lose at -335

So bet 200 on Furyk to lose or 670 to win 200

This way if Furyk wins you win 950 - 670 or $280
This way if Furyk loses you win 200 - 25 or $175

Thats hedging

DrunkenHorseplayer · Jun 17, 2012

Never, ever assume that it's between the leaders. You've got a huge +EV bet going so I'd let it ride; if you must hedge, take McDowell, Jacobsen, Els, and Westwood.

charliebrown · Jun 17, 2012

Olympic Club is a monster. From bleacherreport -

"In every Open contested at the Olympic Club, the 54-hole leader has gone on to lose the tournament. Ben Hogan, Arnold Palmer, Tom Watson and Payne Stewart all surrendered Sunday leads en route to runner-up finishes."

IMO, you could take all the guys within 4-5 strokes of the lead and draw a name out of a hat...and there's your winner. it could be anyone; even that 17 year old kid.

GilRenard · Jun 17, 2012

I'd let it ride as well. I don't think that the guys with the best chance of winning would pay enough to justify hedging a 38:1. As others have said, someone unexpected could sneak up from the pack, and then you'd end up losing more. If your book has it, live betting might be your best hedging option.

MIKEY.1TIME · Jun 17, 2012

dsethi said:
McDowell folded earlier this year when he was H2H with Tiger if I remember correctly.

Field is -335 against Furyk, why not throw a few on that line to cover your original bet and then a little on top, then sit back and enjoy pulling for your guy on Sunday?

this...

Dude · Jun 17, 2012

Thanks guys. I put 25 on mcdowell and another 25 on westwood. Just going to let the rest ride. After all this is the reason we gamble..

charliebrown · Jun 17, 2012

Good Luck, Mr Liebowski.

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