Sunday: Reds and Rangers YTD: 129-117, + 30.3 units

I would have done better taking my own advice about the AL surging and bet 1 unit on AL teams Saturday. They went 10-4. If The Sox had held their late lead and not given a push, the day would have been much better. Can't believe Lester gave up a 3 run homer to a guy who NEVER hits homers. Oh well, Sunday will be here soon.

I find that Sundays can be dangerous. It seems that many baseball bettors want to take the comfortable favorite and bet big to win back what they lost during the week. Many times they are disappointed. I should know, I've done this myself. That being said, it will be hard to lay off Texas on Sunday for the RL. Colby Lewis has been very effective at home this year with a 2.33 ERA (in a hitter's park). He has also been very tough on the Astros the past 2 years. And last year he had a very good run throughout the summer- faltering at the beginning and end of the season. Another reason to like this game is that the Astros brought up Dallas Keuchel, who was being hit at a .307 pace AAA. 60 IPs, 75 hits. Now he pitches against the most feared lineup in the mlb, on the road, with Texas starting to break out of their slump a bit. The Astros bullpen has also been poor of late. I just don't see how they can piece together 9 innings to make this game competitive unless Lewis bombs early. Keuchel's scouting reports call him a fringe guy with not major league stuff, but good control. He's a ground ball pitcher who apparently gives up some very hard ground balls called hits- along with line drives. The Rangers are 6-2 in their NL games this week, and the Astros are starting to look like last year's version. 2 units RL on Texas.

Reds: -1. This one I like for 3 units. The Reds have showed the Mets that they are even hotter. The Reds are playing as if they can't be beaten- timely hitting, power, great pitching (including the BP), and good defense. The Mets must have caught Tampa on the downslide last week when they swept that series. Truly the Rays have looked terrible, and if not for Zambrano, would be in worse shape (beat him twice). Arroyo and Bailey both had what was for them great games. Cueto is the best of the three. In his 13 starts this year, he has 2 bad starts, one so-so, and 10 very good starts, where he kept the other team at 0-2 runs. The Mets bullpen is the worst in the majors and it's not even close. Chris Young, back from his devastating injury, is on a pitch count- or about 5 IPs. This is why this game looks so good. Young is very tall, but only pitches in the 80-85 range and relies on downward movement and a quick delivery to win. Still, hitters are hitting .333 in his first 2 starts. The Reds have a HUGE advantage in the bullpen.The Mets also lost 6 out of 7 before that Tampa series. Strange, but true, they came out of their slump only vs. the Rays. The Mets are also missing a few guys to injuries(Tejada, Bay, Baxter).

KC: A huge number at +181. ML one unit. Wainwright isn't that good to deserve this kind of edge, and Mendoza isn't that bad either. Wainwright's velocity is still only averaging 89-90, which means he's not completely recovered. If his curve is deadly and placed well, the Royals are in trouble. Mendoza is truly a ground ball pitcher, who has surprised many with more Ks than expected. The Royals all year have been better on the road and they are in the AL.

Detroit TT: one unit. Probably 5.5 or 6, which is high. But Jeremy Guthrie is melting down. On any other staff, he would be dropped, but the Rockies don't have any replacements- that's why Jeff Francis was signed. He has been ruined by Coors Field, his own frustrations, a fall off his bike, terrible contact ratios, or something…….. who knows, but he's not going to likely get well against Detroit. The Rockies are also awful in interleague play, so it's tempting to just take the Tigers. Yet who knows what Max Scherzer will bring? He's been known to pitch horribly too, or not. Back to Guthrie: 26 IPs in his last 5 starts, 31 runs, 48 hits, and 11 HRs. And this against Seattle, Houston, Cinn (before they were hot), Arizona, and Oakland. Not exactly the cream of the hitting teams.

Oakland-1 for one unit. Dare I say that the A's are hot. They can hit. Better catch this while you can cause it won't last. Cespedes might be available today too. The Padres are also hitting better(for them), but I think that is even more fleeting than the A's. Clayton Richards thrives in Petco, but is awful on the road. He pitches to contact, and his strikeout totals are down drastically from 2 years ago. Colon is an enigma, but has faced much tougher teams than Richards. I just think the A's are feeling renewed enthusiasm, are at home, and might have a good crowd on a Sunday afternoon to inspire them.

Angels: -1. Garrett Richards has a live arm for sure. Mid to high 90s fastball with good movement, and his breaking pitches are improved from last year. Plus he has great velocity into the 6th or 7th innings. Now that he has tasted success, his confidence will only get better. I also think getting one hit by Ervin Santana says something about the D-Backs hitting prowess. They are overrated. Ian Kennedy has shown improvement lately, but is not the ace he was last year. Maybe last year he was better than he really is talent wise. His defense this year has also gotten worse. This game looks like another good matchup for an AL team.

As I write this, the Royals have 2 on, no outs, but I have no aspirations they'll score. This team is the king of spreading out hits, not scoring and swinging at bad pitches to make poor contact. They don't strikeout much, but don't seem to hit the ball squarely either- or with men on base. Anyways, I'm on it for the big + number…..

o fred...would like to thank you for Texas & K.C. today. BOL

You are welcome. The Tigers game is an unofficial win too- 15 hits, 4 walks 1 HBP, a wild pitch, and they only score 5 runs. Guthrie left after the rain delay and Detroit left a jillion guys on base.
4-2, + 5.7 units day (Tigers as a loss included). Got an interesting bet for Monday.
YTD: 133-119, + 36 units

Another terrific day Fred...TY.

"Tomorrow's Headlines Today"