D-Wade's slow start problem
Difference between first- and second-half production is biggest in 15 years
By Tom Haberstroh | ESPN Insider
Something's up with Dwyane Wade.
At 30 years old, Wade is in the midst of one of the worst postseasons of his career. His PER is down from 26.3 last postseason to 22.1 this postseason, his lowest rate since his rookie season (minimum five games). He's not quite old enough at this point for us to attribute his precipitous drop-off to a natural decline.
His sore left knee might be the culprit. Before Game 2 of the Indiana series, Wade had his knee drained because of fluid buildup due to inflammation. Although Wade won't publicly admit the severity of his knee issues, he is regularly exhibiting a slight limp on the floor.
There's something peculiar going on with his in-game splits that might have gone unnoticed by the casual fan.
Wade has been a remarkably slow starter in these playoffs, needing until halftime to play like we're accustomed to seeing him play. In fact, over the past 15 years, we haven't seen a player exhibit a wider gap between productivity in the first-half compared to after the halftime intermission.
In 20 games this postseason, Wade has posted a 15.2 player efficiency rating in the first half of games (remember, a 15.0 PER is average). Yes, Wade, a former Finals MVP, has been no better than a league-average player in the first two quarters in the playoffs.
But after halftime? He's a completely different player. In the second halves and overtime this postseason, Wade has posted a 28.6 PER, which ranks with all the great postseasons in history. But he hasn't been able to consistently post that kind of production until after intermission.
In other words, Wade is Michael Dickerson in the first half and Michael Jordan in the second half.
This might seem like a random fluke, but Wade is making history with his slow starts.
Over the past 15 years, there have been a grand total of 706 postseasons by a player with at least 300 minutes. Of those 706 postseasons, how many have exhibited a wider gap between first-half and second-half production than Wade this season?
Zero.
The closest thing we can find to the Jekyll-and-Hyde act that Wade is currently performing? You'd have to go way back to Tim Duncan's 1997-98 playoff campaign, when he posted a measly 14.1 PER before halftime and a monstrous 27.5 PER after the intermission. And even that run from Duncan lasted only nine games. Wade has been doing this for 20.
Lopsided Production
The biggest disparities between first- and second-half production in a single postseason. (Note: The first set of stats -- points per game, rebounds per game, assists per game and PER -- is from the first half, and the second set is from the second half.)
<table><thead><tr><th>Player</th><th>G-Min</th><th>Ppg</th><th>Rpg</th><th>Apg</th><th>PER</th><th>Ppg</th><th>Rpg</th><th>Apg</th><th>PER</th><th>PERdiff</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>D. Wade '12</td><td>20-785</td><td>9.2</td><td>2.4</td><td>2.1</td><td>15.2</td><td>13.6</td><td>2.7</td><td>2.3</td><td>28.6</td><td>-13.4</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>T. Duncan '98</td><td>9-374</td><td>7.9</td><td>3.7</td><td>0.9</td><td>14.1</td><td>12.8</td><td>5.3</td><td>1.0</td><td>27.5</td><td>-13.4</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>K. Bryant '01</td><td>16-694</td><td>11.9</td><td>3.3</td><td>3.7</td><td>19.0</td><td>17.6</td><td>4.0</td><td>2.4</td><td>31.8</td><td>-12.8</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>S. Hawes '12</td><td>13-331</td><td>3.5</td><td>3.3</td><td>1.2</td><td>7.9</td><td>5.8</td><td>3.3</td><td>0.5</td><td>20.7</td><td>-12.8</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>M. Finley '06</td><td>13-411</td><td>2.8</td><td>1.7</td><td>0.5</td><td>7.5</td><td>7.7</td><td>2.1</td><td>0.9</td><td>19.5</td><td>-12.0</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>A. Brooks '09</td><td>13-443</td><td>5.8</td><td>1.3</td><td>1.8</td><td>10.7</td><td>11.0</td><td>1.3</td><td>1.6</td><td>22.2</td><td>-11.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>M. Ginobili '06</td><td>13-426</td><td>6.7</td><td>2.7</td><td>1.6</td><td>16.8</td><td>11.7</td><td>1.8</td><td>1.4</td><td>28.2</td><td>-11.4</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>T. Best '00</td><td>23-464</td><td>3.4</td><td>1.1</td><td>1.3</td><td>12.1</td><td>5.5</td><td>1.3</td><td>1.6</td><td>23.5</td><td>-11.3</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>M. Finley '01</td><td>10-433</td><td>9.2</td><td>2.2</td><td>2.0</td><td>8.3</td><td>10.5</td><td>3.1</td><td>2.4</td><td>19.6</td><td>-11.3</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>M. Finley '07</td><td>20-538</td><td>4.8</td><td>1.8</td><td>0.6</td><td>9.9</td><td>6.5</td><td>1.2</td><td>0.6</td><td>21.0</td><td>-11.1</td></tr></tbody></table>
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The numbers above tell us that not only are his shooting percentages suffering, but so are his rebounding and assist numbers. Apparently, Wade isn't making good use of his warm-up time before tipoff, because he's been shooting an un-Wade-like 40 percent from the floor in the opening two periods. After that? His shooting rates balloon to 53 percent, which is simply an enormous surge.
How can we explain such a turnaround? When asked about it recently, Miami Heat coach Erik Spoelstra couldn't put a finger on it, but he had an inkling that the numbers would bear this out. It should be noted that in Game 2 of the Finals, Wade had reversed the trend and put together a pretty strong first half with a solid second-half. But as encouraging as his performance on Thursday was, it didn't do much to correct his overall split, which is still at historical levels.
So about that knee. You'll notice that I'm not Dr. Haberstroh, so speculation about the physical cause of his slow starts should be taken with a grain of salt. With a balky knee, it could be that he's having a tough time getting himself loose and warmed up over the first couple of quarters. But if we saw this in reverse, we'd probably assume it has to do with his knee getting worn out. Unless Wade fesses up, there's no way of knowing precisely what's going on.
It could also be a matter of mental preservation. Though Wade hasn't alluded to the notion that he's saving himself for more critical moments of the game, it could be possible that Wade is subconsciously drifting into cruise control for the opening quarters and then shifting into high gear when the going gets tough. Knowing he might have only so much left in the tank and he has LeBron James to shoulder the load, it might be the case that Wade is saving his energy -- and his knee -- for more pivotal parts of the game.
So if you're looking for a reason why Wade has been experiencing a down postseason run, it's really just a case of being an average player for half the game. During the second-halves of these games, Wade has played like one of the league's best players (for example, his 28.6 PER would rank second in the league this season, just behind his MVP teammate James). That's what we'd expect Wade to be. The league-average player? That's not Wade.
Whatever the cause for Wade's first-half struggles, there's no question that this is bizarre. If this occurred over a sample of a few games, we might just chalk it up to random noise. But this has been going on for the better part of 20 games, and the slow starts have been so drastic that no one has approached such a massive negative differential over a 20-game sample. We'll see whether Wade can start getting off to faster starts, as he did in Game 2, or whether we'll have to continue to wait until the second halves of games to see the Wade we're used to witnessing in the postseason.
Difference between first- and second-half production is biggest in 15 years
By Tom Haberstroh | ESPN Insider
Something's up with Dwyane Wade.
At 30 years old, Wade is in the midst of one of the worst postseasons of his career. His PER is down from 26.3 last postseason to 22.1 this postseason, his lowest rate since his rookie season (minimum five games). He's not quite old enough at this point for us to attribute his precipitous drop-off to a natural decline.
His sore left knee might be the culprit. Before Game 2 of the Indiana series, Wade had his knee drained because of fluid buildup due to inflammation. Although Wade won't publicly admit the severity of his knee issues, he is regularly exhibiting a slight limp on the floor.
There's something peculiar going on with his in-game splits that might have gone unnoticed by the casual fan.
Wade has been a remarkably slow starter in these playoffs, needing until halftime to play like we're accustomed to seeing him play. In fact, over the past 15 years, we haven't seen a player exhibit a wider gap between productivity in the first-half compared to after the halftime intermission.
In 20 games this postseason, Wade has posted a 15.2 player efficiency rating in the first half of games (remember, a 15.0 PER is average). Yes, Wade, a former Finals MVP, has been no better than a league-average player in the first two quarters in the playoffs.
But after halftime? He's a completely different player. In the second halves and overtime this postseason, Wade has posted a 28.6 PER, which ranks with all the great postseasons in history. But he hasn't been able to consistently post that kind of production until after intermission.
In other words, Wade is Michael Dickerson in the first half and Michael Jordan in the second half.
This might seem like a random fluke, but Wade is making history with his slow starts.
Over the past 15 years, there have been a grand total of 706 postseasons by a player with at least 300 minutes. Of those 706 postseasons, how many have exhibited a wider gap between first-half and second-half production than Wade this season?
Zero.
The closest thing we can find to the Jekyll-and-Hyde act that Wade is currently performing? You'd have to go way back to Tim Duncan's 1997-98 playoff campaign, when he posted a measly 14.1 PER before halftime and a monstrous 27.5 PER after the intermission. And even that run from Duncan lasted only nine games. Wade has been doing this for 20.
Lopsided Production
The biggest disparities between first- and second-half production in a single postseason. (Note: The first set of stats -- points per game, rebounds per game, assists per game and PER -- is from the first half, and the second set is from the second half.)
<table><thead><tr><th>Player</th><th>G-Min</th><th>Ppg</th><th>Rpg</th><th>Apg</th><th>PER</th><th>Ppg</th><th>Rpg</th><th>Apg</th><th>PER</th><th>PERdiff</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>D. Wade '12</td><td>20-785</td><td>9.2</td><td>2.4</td><td>2.1</td><td>15.2</td><td>13.6</td><td>2.7</td><td>2.3</td><td>28.6</td><td>-13.4</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>T. Duncan '98</td><td>9-374</td><td>7.9</td><td>3.7</td><td>0.9</td><td>14.1</td><td>12.8</td><td>5.3</td><td>1.0</td><td>27.5</td><td>-13.4</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>K. Bryant '01</td><td>16-694</td><td>11.9</td><td>3.3</td><td>3.7</td><td>19.0</td><td>17.6</td><td>4.0</td><td>2.4</td><td>31.8</td><td>-12.8</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>S. Hawes '12</td><td>13-331</td><td>3.5</td><td>3.3</td><td>1.2</td><td>7.9</td><td>5.8</td><td>3.3</td><td>0.5</td><td>20.7</td><td>-12.8</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>M. Finley '06</td><td>13-411</td><td>2.8</td><td>1.7</td><td>0.5</td><td>7.5</td><td>7.7</td><td>2.1</td><td>0.9</td><td>19.5</td><td>-12.0</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>A. Brooks '09</td><td>13-443</td><td>5.8</td><td>1.3</td><td>1.8</td><td>10.7</td><td>11.0</td><td>1.3</td><td>1.6</td><td>22.2</td><td>-11.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>M. Ginobili '06</td><td>13-426</td><td>6.7</td><td>2.7</td><td>1.6</td><td>16.8</td><td>11.7</td><td>1.8</td><td>1.4</td><td>28.2</td><td>-11.4</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>T. Best '00</td><td>23-464</td><td>3.4</td><td>1.1</td><td>1.3</td><td>12.1</td><td>5.5</td><td>1.3</td><td>1.6</td><td>23.5</td><td>-11.3</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>M. Finley '01</td><td>10-433</td><td>9.2</td><td>2.2</td><td>2.0</td><td>8.3</td><td>10.5</td><td>3.1</td><td>2.4</td><td>19.6</td><td>-11.3</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>M. Finley '07</td><td>20-538</td><td>4.8</td><td>1.8</td><td>0.6</td><td>9.9</td><td>6.5</td><td>1.2</td><td>0.6</td><td>21.0</td><td>-11.1</td></tr></tbody></table>
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The numbers above tell us that not only are his shooting percentages suffering, but so are his rebounding and assist numbers. Apparently, Wade isn't making good use of his warm-up time before tipoff, because he's been shooting an un-Wade-like 40 percent from the floor in the opening two periods. After that? His shooting rates balloon to 53 percent, which is simply an enormous surge.
How can we explain such a turnaround? When asked about it recently, Miami Heat coach Erik Spoelstra couldn't put a finger on it, but he had an inkling that the numbers would bear this out. It should be noted that in Game 2 of the Finals, Wade had reversed the trend and put together a pretty strong first half with a solid second-half. But as encouraging as his performance on Thursday was, it didn't do much to correct his overall split, which is still at historical levels.
So about that knee. You'll notice that I'm not Dr. Haberstroh, so speculation about the physical cause of his slow starts should be taken with a grain of salt. With a balky knee, it could be that he's having a tough time getting himself loose and warmed up over the first couple of quarters. But if we saw this in reverse, we'd probably assume it has to do with his knee getting worn out. Unless Wade fesses up, there's no way of knowing precisely what's going on.
It could also be a matter of mental preservation. Though Wade hasn't alluded to the notion that he's saving himself for more critical moments of the game, it could be possible that Wade is subconsciously drifting into cruise control for the opening quarters and then shifting into high gear when the going gets tough. Knowing he might have only so much left in the tank and he has LeBron James to shoulder the load, it might be the case that Wade is saving his energy -- and his knee -- for more pivotal parts of the game.
So if you're looking for a reason why Wade has been experiencing a down postseason run, it's really just a case of being an average player for half the game. During the second-halves of these games, Wade has played like one of the league's best players (for example, his 28.6 PER would rank second in the league this season, just behind his MVP teammate James). That's what we'd expect Wade to be. The league-average player? That's not Wade.
Whatever the cause for Wade's first-half struggles, there's no question that this is bizarre. If this occurred over a sample of a few games, we might just chalk it up to random noise. But this has been going on for the better part of 20 games, and the slow starts have been so drastic that no one has approached such a massive negative differential over a 20-game sample. We'll see whether Wade can start getting off to faster starts, as he did in Game 2, or whether we'll have to continue to wait until the second halves of games to see the Wade we're used to witnessing in the postseason.
