Monday: New York, New York YTD: 133-119, +36 units

ofred · Jun 17, 2012

On the RL, the Yanks are at +100 and the Mets are at +120 (I got it at +125, but it's already changed).
* If you go one and one- you'll either break even or win a little bit.
* Also, by the way, the AL went 10-4 again today. That's 20-6 this weekend. Some games really stick out- Yanks sweep streaking Nats, covering the RL in each of the 3 games, and on the road. KC wins a +180 bet in STL, Twins win a game where Blackburn is starting against Greineke, Jason Hammel one hits the Braves, Ervin Santana 1 hits Arizona (and Santana has sucked), The Mariners win 2 out of 3 from SF, and I can go on and on….. It's the kind of stuff that is outside the norm when playing league games. It happened in May and happened again this weekend.

Yankees: They are so hot that they are the best team in the AL, which is proven to be the superior league. Sabathia is not the dominant pitcher he once was, but he's still pretty good, and crafty, and good enough to beat the Braves, who have not scored for 20 innings. Against a so-so Oriole staff. Minor is also the worst of the Braves starters, and the Yankees just saw him last week, so expect better results. He is a HR magnet in HR friendly Yankee Stadium.

Mets: This pitching matchup is very, very much in favor of the Mets. Arrieta has a good outing once in a while, but rarely 2 in a row. Plus Dickey has been so incredible and looking back a couple of years, I don't know of a time the O's have seen a knuckled. In fact, that's part of Dickey's success. Hitters see his type of pitcher so rarely, and no batting practice pitcher can emulate it, that they are at the mercy of something you can't practice for. Dickey also has a few other pitches, so unlike Wakefield who depended and threw almost all knuckles, Dickey varies his pitches better.

ofred · Jun 17, 2012

Mets: 2 units RL.
Mets: -1/2 first 5 innings. one unit.

Yankees: RL. 2 units.
Yankees: -1 one unit.

ofred · Jun 17, 2012

Seattle/ Arizona: under 9. for 1 unit(on the large side). This is a great number. Miley has been very good, shutting down Texas and Colorado his last 2 starts- 2 strong hitting teams. His slider, sinker, cutter, and mid 90s fastball will likely shut down the Ms. Everybody else does. Noesi has also been pitching fairly well in the past 2 months for Seattle, and the D-Backs are not exactly hitting well. Plus both teams will be without a DH. Both teams will have weak bottom of the lineups, and the middle of their orders are underwhelming.

Arizona -1. One unit. Miley is just so good, I expect a 3-1 or 4-1 kind of score.

Catchn_Flops · Jun 17, 2012

BOL again to one of the best baseball capper I've seen in quite a while. Ty for sharing Fred. Terrific weekend.

ofred · Jun 17, 2012

This underdog looks good for Monday. Cubs-1/2 first 5 IPs. Garza and Dempster and Samardzija give the Cubs at least hope when they start. And unless they get amazing prospects, I wouldn't trade any of them. To rebuild, you need starting pitching or you'll end up like KC, The Rockies or the Twins. Just losing by being outscored. Garza is such a competitor, and although he has been up and down this year, there is nothing really wrong with him- except maybe the Cub defense. Zach Stewart is plain awful. Someone should tell him that as a reliever, you are supposed to have more velocity. As a prospect, he was in the mid-90s. Now he is about 88-91, with no out pitch. He gives up homers like a bad Bronson Arroyo (15 HRs in his last 74 IPs- that's one every 5 innings). Another weird stat. Hitters are hitting .314 against him this year so far, and .314 last year. Either way, he gets hit hard. The Sox's BP has also been so-so as of late, though not at Cub level of badness. The White Sox have lost 2 out of 3 in their last 3 series- all to NL clubs. How embarrassing. Why not the Cubbies? Besides, the -1/2 will be a nice + number when we see it in the morning. One unit.

ofred · Jun 17, 2012

With such a small slate on Monday, I am surprised there are so many games I like. At under 7, the Angels/ SF game is for one unit. Matt Cain is something. In his last 30 IPs, he's given up just 3 walks, while striking out 30. In fact, his 6:1 K to BB ratio is remarkable. A bad outing for him is when he gives up 4 runs in 7 IPs, while walking 0 and striking out 8- as he did vs. Milw. Both teams have good Bps, the Angels especially in the last month. Trumbo has cooled a bit, Pujols still hasn't caught fire, and the Angels only have 11 runs in their last 6 games. The Giants only seem to score a lot of runs against weak pitching. Both pitchers are good fielders, and the Angels field well as a team. Though Cain's numbers are helped by the West Coast ballparks, the Angel's stadium is also a pitcher's park. First games in a series usually seem lower scoring. J. Williams has improved with age. He has only 2 bad outings in his last 10, and has faced the AL all year.

ofred · Jun 18, 2012

Arizona -1/2 first 5 innings. Two units. Miley and D-Backs hitting have a big edge for first 5. After that, their BP could implode.

I already have the Mets for -1/2 first five IP. Two units instead of one.

powerz · Jun 18, 2012

Would the O's not have seen Tim Wakefield on a regular basis being in the same division? Thanks for your write - ups I enjoy reading them

Best of Luck today

ofred · Jun 18, 2012

Yes. But Wakefield has been lousy the past 2 years, and he threw knucklers almost all the time. He did face the O's once last year. Dickey's repertoire is more diversified, and his K numbers are unbelievable the past 4-5 games.

Noted that Sabathia really struggles early in games, before pulling it together. Hopefully the damage will be light.

*Tonight's Indians/ Reds game will have the playoff atmosphere with the Lowe/ Baker feud. There are so many reasons to take the Reds. One being that every Red is either trending up, or sideways in their hitting. Votto and Cozart are red hot. Much better power since Hafner is out and Santana is slumping badly. Lowe gave up 6 walks last game to the Reds which tells me they are laying off the low stuff effectively. As long the Indians keep trotting out Damon, Shelley Duncan and Aaron Cunningham- you know they have lineup issues. The back 2 guys in their BP are solid, but the rest of it is suspect. Reds are streaking, Indians slumping. Won't the Reds players also want to please Baker by making sure Lowe works, messing with his head, and concentrating a little bit more at the plate? Latos is pitching better since April, though he needs to use his off speed pitches more. Should be interesting………. Haven't decided on a play yet.

ofred · Jun 18, 2012

The Arizona game is looking better and better to me. Noesi has been awful on the road. Miley, being lefty, is going to be tough for the Mariners, whose best hitters(except Montero), are lefties. Also Seattle has only got to one starter well in their last 9 games, Linecum- whose struggles have been commonplace this year.

Cheddar · Jun 18, 2012

Just curious as to the ariz under play when your last 2 writeups have "their BP could implode" and "Noesi has been awful on the road" and the 1st write up says "Noesi has benn pitching fairly well the last 2 months". You had me talked into the under, but now I'm a little confused

ofred · Jun 18, 2012

Cheddar said:
Just curious as to the ariz under play when your last 2 writeups have "their BP could implode" and "Noesi has been awful on the road" and the 1st write up says "Noesi has benn pitching fairly well the last 2 months". You had me talked into the under, but now I'm a little confused

I don't blame you. I still like the under only because the number was 9, neither team is hitting as of late, Miley has been great- but Noesi's comments about him pitching well does not include his performance on the road. He is a Safeco pitcher, and has about a 50/50 chance of doing fair to good tonight. Arizona's bullpen will not come in to play possibly because Miley should go far into the game. The better play is Arizona -1, or -1/2 first 5 innings. I expect a 3-1, 4-1, 5-2 type of game. Bol in whatever you decide.

ofred · Jun 18, 2012

Both New York teams win the RL. Unfortunately, the Mets lost the 5 innings bet, but the Cubs came through. I also want to say that Dickey is so good lately that I want to bet him NOW for his next start. His stuff causes batters to miss or make poor contact at an alarming rate.

Catchn_Flops · Jun 18, 2012

Fred...I'm getting scared to visit your thread...I worry that my computer will melt. You are real hot.

You are seeing the game real well right now. Not just picking the winner but the reasons why they will win.

The Yanks and Mets game seemed to just jumped off the page at you. As a result, I did something I never do...I parlayed them on both the ML and RL.

TY

Ps. Dickey is pure and simple the best knuckleball pitcher I have ever seen...and I remember Phil Niekro. He was just freezing batters all night. No knuckleballer before had anywhere near the fastball that he does. The combo of that knuckleball and that fastball is unreal.

Unfortunately his betting line is going to go off the chart in his next game. Valuetown has closed the door.

powerz · Jun 19, 2012

Great day Fred I tailed that Arizona first five play looks like you rolled real well!

ofred · Jun 19, 2012

Thanks. 7-2, + 7.2 units today. Have been going well since Thursday. YTD: 140-121, +43.2 units

* I loaded up on that Arizona game. I'm not sure why I didn't make it my first 4 unit play this year.

Monday: New York, New York YTD: 133-119, +36 units

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