2012 MLB O/U Record: 175-174-16, -$1,475 (Been making bigger bets this year, with countless bad breaks obviously)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Stopped the bleeding of my slump yesterday with a nice 5-1 day so that was a relief. If you truly invest yourself emotionally and mentally into betting, you know the most important factor above anything else is MINDSET, and if you’ve suddenly found yourself in a losing rut, it’s very critical to escape that, as to not let it snowball and mess with your technique, otherwise you’ll be second guessing yourself all the time and it completely throws you out of rhythm. Yesterday’s performance gave me at least a little bit of relief so let’s see what today has in store…
KansasCity Royals @ Houston Astros (Best Bet) - $56 for $50
Jonathan Sanchez vs JA Happ
UNDER 8.5
I was waiting all day for the line to goup to 9 (Like it CLEARLY should be), given the pitchers in this matchup, and for some reason, it never happened. After all, on one side, you have the always erratic Jonathan Sanchez and his signature wildness, while opposing him is the guy I refuse to give up on as a quality starting pitcher, JA Happ, who was once again shelled in his last outing (Single-handedly ruining my best bet under in the Matt Cain perfect game in the process. UGH). That being said, why is the line for this game 8.5 and not 9? As I’ve pointed out countless times this year, there are just certain games where the Vegas linesmakers obviously tip their hands, and this just might be one of them (Especially since they have Happ FAVORED against a much superior Royals ballclub). It’s especially better when you don’t favor a certain side of a bet just for that fact, as Vegas trying to bait people into the over is just icing on this under. Allow me to get into it...
First, let me start with Sanchez, the Royals’ prized off-season acquisition for their starting pitching staff who was supposed to provide a successful veteran presence that would anchor the rotation all year long. Instead, Sanchez has been mostly ineffective, while battling recurring injuries that have limited him to just seven starts thus far that have led him to post a 1-2 record with an atrocious 5.93 ERA and 1.85 WHIP. In addition, he has more walks (24) than strikeouts (22), which is never good, especially for him, considering his main strength has been overpowering hitters and recording an above-average number of punch-outs on a regular basis. So why do I like him in this spot here? For one, the Astros are the WORST team in the National League against left-handed pitching, having hit a disgusting .218 against southpaws all year. That’s far from average, although it is capable of improving a bit with the recent return of right-handed El Caballo to the lineup, but it still probably won’t be enough to rescue them against lefties consistently. In addition, they have the lowest OBP in all of baseball versus lefties, clocking in at a pathetic .283. Secondly, Sanchez just returned from his latest injury and put on a dazzling performance when he went into Milwaukee and shut down a pretty good Brewers offense to seven hits and one run over five fine innings that also saw him strike out four and walk only two. That’s a big deal because it was only the second time this year Sanchez has walked less than three guys in a game, and considering that’s always been the major weakness throughout his career, if he’s finally harnessed a little bit better control and/or made a necessary adjustment, it could make a huge difference for him. I’m looking for Sanchez to keep that up with a bit of extra confidence, since he was facing a superior lineup his last time out.
Ah, then there’s JA Happ, my third favorite pitcher in baseball behind Bud Norris and James McDonald. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: I will not give up on this man. There’s just too much talent and intelligence that this guy possesses and I know he can be a successful pitcher for a long time. At the moment, that is certainly not true, as he’s 4-7 with a 5.33 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP. The only silver lining is high strikeout total, owning 76 in 72 innings, which is tremendous. That means in any given start, even if you’re still allowing an unsightly number of baserunners, you can get yourself out of any potential jam as long as you have that ability to record outs without the ball going into play, and Happ at least has exhibited that throughout much of the season. In fact, he’s had at least five K’s in each of his past five starts - even the ones that saw him go lessthan five innings, like his last performance when the Giants knocked him out of the game in the fourth inning. However, I still stand by Happ no matter what. I’ve invested so much emotion and hard work into studying starting pitchers since 2009 - let alone every single day of the baseball season since Opening Day of 2011 - and Happ has just always stood out to me. Then again, even when it comes to the best bettors, a potential weakness people have is that they let personal bias get into the way of their better judgment, which could clearly be the case with me and JA Happ, since he was the No. 1 pitcher I bet on all of last year, and even with my great 2011 record, I was an unspectacular 10-12 with him. As a result, it’s tough to decipher if my feelings for Happ are genuine or pure bias so that’s kind of a tough decision. You make the call on that one if you so choose, but I would suggest you continue to give Happ a chance like I do.
Other 6/18 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Matt Garza vs Zach Stewart UNDER 9 - $22for $20 (Welcome back to a starting role, Zach Stewart! He showed me a little something last year as a starter despite his inconsistencies. I think we’ll see more of the acceptable Zach Stewart in this one, as I’d like to believe he wants to remain a starter instead of being a mostly irrelevant relief pitcher)
Matt Harrison vs Jason Marquis UNDER 7.5- $25 for $20 (I’m just asking for it taking an under that involves the Texas Rangers and Jason Marquis. But I’ve professed my love for Matt Harrison before, he’s a good solid pitcher who, as a Rangers fan, I’ve always liked since coming over from the Mark Teixeira trade. Marquis has been good since joining San Diego so hopefully he keeps his nice little resurgence going and can somehow stifle some of those Ranger bats)
**May Add More Over/Under(s) ThroughoutDay Leading Up To Gametime**
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Stopped the bleeding of my slump yesterday with a nice 5-1 day so that was a relief. If you truly invest yourself emotionally and mentally into betting, you know the most important factor above anything else is MINDSET, and if you’ve suddenly found yourself in a losing rut, it’s very critical to escape that, as to not let it snowball and mess with your technique, otherwise you’ll be second guessing yourself all the time and it completely throws you out of rhythm. Yesterday’s performance gave me at least a little bit of relief so let’s see what today has in store…
KansasCity Royals @ Houston Astros (Best Bet) - $56 for $50
Jonathan Sanchez vs JA Happ
UNDER 8.5
I was waiting all day for the line to goup to 9 (Like it CLEARLY should be), given the pitchers in this matchup, and for some reason, it never happened. After all, on one side, you have the always erratic Jonathan Sanchez and his signature wildness, while opposing him is the guy I refuse to give up on as a quality starting pitcher, JA Happ, who was once again shelled in his last outing (Single-handedly ruining my best bet under in the Matt Cain perfect game in the process. UGH). That being said, why is the line for this game 8.5 and not 9? As I’ve pointed out countless times this year, there are just certain games where the Vegas linesmakers obviously tip their hands, and this just might be one of them (Especially since they have Happ FAVORED against a much superior Royals ballclub). It’s especially better when you don’t favor a certain side of a bet just for that fact, as Vegas trying to bait people into the over is just icing on this under. Allow me to get into it...
First, let me start with Sanchez, the Royals’ prized off-season acquisition for their starting pitching staff who was supposed to provide a successful veteran presence that would anchor the rotation all year long. Instead, Sanchez has been mostly ineffective, while battling recurring injuries that have limited him to just seven starts thus far that have led him to post a 1-2 record with an atrocious 5.93 ERA and 1.85 WHIP. In addition, he has more walks (24) than strikeouts (22), which is never good, especially for him, considering his main strength has been overpowering hitters and recording an above-average number of punch-outs on a regular basis. So why do I like him in this spot here? For one, the Astros are the WORST team in the National League against left-handed pitching, having hit a disgusting .218 against southpaws all year. That’s far from average, although it is capable of improving a bit with the recent return of right-handed El Caballo to the lineup, but it still probably won’t be enough to rescue them against lefties consistently. In addition, they have the lowest OBP in all of baseball versus lefties, clocking in at a pathetic .283. Secondly, Sanchez just returned from his latest injury and put on a dazzling performance when he went into Milwaukee and shut down a pretty good Brewers offense to seven hits and one run over five fine innings that also saw him strike out four and walk only two. That’s a big deal because it was only the second time this year Sanchez has walked less than three guys in a game, and considering that’s always been the major weakness throughout his career, if he’s finally harnessed a little bit better control and/or made a necessary adjustment, it could make a huge difference for him. I’m looking for Sanchez to keep that up with a bit of extra confidence, since he was facing a superior lineup his last time out.
Ah, then there’s JA Happ, my third favorite pitcher in baseball behind Bud Norris and James McDonald. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: I will not give up on this man. There’s just too much talent and intelligence that this guy possesses and I know he can be a successful pitcher for a long time. At the moment, that is certainly not true, as he’s 4-7 with a 5.33 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP. The only silver lining is high strikeout total, owning 76 in 72 innings, which is tremendous. That means in any given start, even if you’re still allowing an unsightly number of baserunners, you can get yourself out of any potential jam as long as you have that ability to record outs without the ball going into play, and Happ at least has exhibited that throughout much of the season. In fact, he’s had at least five K’s in each of his past five starts - even the ones that saw him go lessthan five innings, like his last performance when the Giants knocked him out of the game in the fourth inning. However, I still stand by Happ no matter what. I’ve invested so much emotion and hard work into studying starting pitchers since 2009 - let alone every single day of the baseball season since Opening Day of 2011 - and Happ has just always stood out to me. Then again, even when it comes to the best bettors, a potential weakness people have is that they let personal bias get into the way of their better judgment, which could clearly be the case with me and JA Happ, since he was the No. 1 pitcher I bet on all of last year, and even with my great 2011 record, I was an unspectacular 10-12 with him. As a result, it’s tough to decipher if my feelings for Happ are genuine or pure bias so that’s kind of a tough decision. You make the call on that one if you so choose, but I would suggest you continue to give Happ a chance like I do.
Other 6/18 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Matt Garza vs Zach Stewart UNDER 9 - $22for $20 (Welcome back to a starting role, Zach Stewart! He showed me a little something last year as a starter despite his inconsistencies. I think we’ll see more of the acceptable Zach Stewart in this one, as I’d like to believe he wants to remain a starter instead of being a mostly irrelevant relief pitcher)
Matt Harrison vs Jason Marquis UNDER 7.5- $25 for $20 (I’m just asking for it taking an under that involves the Texas Rangers and Jason Marquis. But I’ve professed my love for Matt Harrison before, he’s a good solid pitcher who, as a Rangers fan, I’ve always liked since coming over from the Mark Teixeira trade. Marquis has been good since joining San Diego so hopefully he keeps his nice little resurgence going and can somehow stifle some of those Ranger bats)
**May Add More Over/Under(s) ThroughoutDay Leading Up To Gametime**
