2012 MLB O/U Record: 176-176-16, -$1,533 (Been making bigger bets this year, with countless bad breaks, obviously)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Well, another day, another bad break yesterday in my best bet Jonathan Sanchez vs JA Happ under 8.5. Once again, I’m not rewarded for a brilliant bold prediction that most people weren’t expecting, as both guys contributed unlikely quality starts in getting the game to 4-2 in the bottom of the 8th, especially Happ, one of my top three favorite pitchers in baseball, who contributed six terrific four-hit innings while only issuing two runs. Unfortunately, it just turned out to be yet another case of a victory for people who made the wrong bet. Obviously, people who took the over of that game were thinking, “Oh man! Jonathan Sanchez and JA Happ facing each other?? Those guys are scrubs, that’s going over!” Well, those people were 100-percent wrong, yet curiously were still rewarded with a “victory.” And no, there’s not a single person on earth that could have predicted that Louis Coleman, one of the best relievers in that outstanding young Kansas City bullpen, would give up five runs in the bottom of the 8th, nor that his ERA would jump up by a full run-and-a-half. Ugh. But I’m used to this by now, even though this didn't come close to happening so consistently in years' past, so let’s just move on…
**Dollar Amounts To Be Posted Later Leading Up To Gametime**
Minnesota Twins @ Pittsburgh Pirates (Best Bet)
Scott Diamond vs Kevin Correia
UNDER8.5
What a strange turn of events. When I got home last night and proceeded to do my two-hour MLB Over/Under routine that I have done every single night this year (Not to mention every single night last season, most nights during 2010, and a lot of nights during 2009 when I first started. It’s proven, battle-tested, and will never change as long as I do this), the line for this game was a measly 7.5. As a result, I went to sleep hoping the line would go up to 8 at some point Tuesday, and out of nowhere, when I checked the lines this morning as soon as I woke up, the over/under had somehow jumped up to 8.5. I wonder what the reasoning is for that, as it’s very rare when a line is changed by a FULL run overnight - it’s happened plenty of times throughout a given day, but in the span of only a few hours? That’s a true rarity. In any case, there’s much evidence to enjoy the under here.
Scott Diamond, as I wrote about before his very first start this season when no one had even heard of him, is a quality young left-handed pitcher. He couldn’t have made me more right in that very first start, as he not only out-dueled the wily Dan Haren, he also shut out an extremely potent Angels offense - in Anaheim. Ever since then, Diamond has been on cruise control, possessing a 5-2 record with a 2.13 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Most impressive, of course, is the fact that he’s only walked SIX battersall season! In fact, he’s walked one or less batter in six of his seven starts, although unfortunately, the one start where he walked more than one came in his last start, in which he also surrendered a season-high four earned runs against the Phillies. No worries, though, as he walked only two in that outing, and that’s the thing I love about Scott Diamond. He MAKES you beat him with the bat; it’s not common to find a pitcher with such a low walk rate, and I appreciate hurlers with that ability. While he’s not a good strikeout pitcher, if you are to beat Scott Diamond, you have to do it by finding holes through the infield or looping the ball into certain spots in the outfield, which is tough to do. What makes Diamond tougher is that he’s only given up six homers this year so the only way you can beat him is by stringing together singles and doubles consecutively, which won’t be easy in a National League game when you have the pitcher up every three innings. Diamond should continue the roll he’s in (Pittsburgh in the bottom third of baseball against left-handed pitching), not to mention continue his bid for a spot on the AL all-star team.
That's just one half to the equation; the other, luckily, is no scrub either, that being Kevin Correia. Yes, his numbers are not special at all (2-6, 4.43 ERA, 1.32 WHIP), and his 24:21 K:BB ratio isn’t pretty, but it’s not like his numbers are horrible. In fact, Correia has shown this year that he can still be a solid pitcher, even if in flashes, as half of his starts have clocked in as official quality outings. Unfortunately, Correia hasn’t had an official quality start in June (He just missed one in the beginning with a start where he went 5.2 IP giving up only two runs in Milwaukee), but maybe the Law of Averages can aid us here, as he’s a bit better than that, and isn’t facing an offense that lights the world on fire or anything (Plus Joe Mauer is doubtful for tonight). The main thing I like about Correia, which is something I only noticed this season, is that he’s actually a passionate pitcher. I feel like I mention this every time I take a Kevin Correia start, but from watching him in a few instances this season, he surprisingly invests himself very emotionally, more so than I notice from most pitchers - and that’s saying something when I’ve watched literally every starting pitcher in all of baseball (Thank you, Extra Innings package). Thus, Correia is not the type of guy that will just roll over and let things snowball; he cares more than most how his start turns out, and with a fine chance to record his first quality start in the month of June on this Tuesday night (The Twins are in the bottom third of the league in hitting versus right-handed pitching), I think he’ll capitalize. 8.5 runs is a high line for this type of pitching matchup in a National League park.
Other 6/19 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Aaron Harang vs Brandon McCarthy UNDER 7(Please tell me this is the same Brandon McCarthy we’ve grown accustomed to in recent years. I hate taking pitchers coming off an injury, even if it’s minor, but the line being 7 is too good to pass up)
Scott Feldman vs Edinson Volquez OVER 7(As a Ranger fan, I’ve given Scott Feldman numerous opportunities, since he had that wonderful season in 2009. But in 2012, he just doesn’t have it anymore, and he’s proven that countless times already. Volquez was one of my darling sleepers this year that I’ve been 100-percent right on, but I don’t think this will be one of his better outings)
Lance Lynn vs Justin Verlander OVER 7 (Justin Verlander might be the best American League pitcher, but this season, there have been a few times where he actually looked vulnerable, unlike in 2011. Lance Lynn is someone I’ve always liked and it’s nice to see him succeed in this unexpected dominant fashion he has put on display, but I sense he gives up at least a few in this MLB Network Tuesday night Detroit setting)
Also of Note: Not taking it yet, but Outman vs Hamels is a VERY frustrating pitching matchup to analyze. I want to go under (The line went from 8 to 7.5 overnight), but a 6-2/8-2 outcome is very possible. I’ll be researching this one more throughout the day, as Josh Outman is much better than his awful numbers indicate and can be a very interesting southpaw. Hmmmm
**May Add More Over/Under(s) ThroughoutDay Leading Up To Gametime**
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Well, another day, another bad break yesterday in my best bet Jonathan Sanchez vs JA Happ under 8.5. Once again, I’m not rewarded for a brilliant bold prediction that most people weren’t expecting, as both guys contributed unlikely quality starts in getting the game to 4-2 in the bottom of the 8th, especially Happ, one of my top three favorite pitchers in baseball, who contributed six terrific four-hit innings while only issuing two runs. Unfortunately, it just turned out to be yet another case of a victory for people who made the wrong bet. Obviously, people who took the over of that game were thinking, “Oh man! Jonathan Sanchez and JA Happ facing each other?? Those guys are scrubs, that’s going over!” Well, those people were 100-percent wrong, yet curiously were still rewarded with a “victory.” And no, there’s not a single person on earth that could have predicted that Louis Coleman, one of the best relievers in that outstanding young Kansas City bullpen, would give up five runs in the bottom of the 8th, nor that his ERA would jump up by a full run-and-a-half. Ugh. But I’m used to this by now, even though this didn't come close to happening so consistently in years' past, so let’s just move on…
**Dollar Amounts To Be Posted Later Leading Up To Gametime**
Minnesota Twins @ Pittsburgh Pirates (Best Bet)
Scott Diamond vs Kevin Correia
UNDER8.5
What a strange turn of events. When I got home last night and proceeded to do my two-hour MLB Over/Under routine that I have done every single night this year (Not to mention every single night last season, most nights during 2010, and a lot of nights during 2009 when I first started. It’s proven, battle-tested, and will never change as long as I do this), the line for this game was a measly 7.5. As a result, I went to sleep hoping the line would go up to 8 at some point Tuesday, and out of nowhere, when I checked the lines this morning as soon as I woke up, the over/under had somehow jumped up to 8.5. I wonder what the reasoning is for that, as it’s very rare when a line is changed by a FULL run overnight - it’s happened plenty of times throughout a given day, but in the span of only a few hours? That’s a true rarity. In any case, there’s much evidence to enjoy the under here.
Scott Diamond, as I wrote about before his very first start this season when no one had even heard of him, is a quality young left-handed pitcher. He couldn’t have made me more right in that very first start, as he not only out-dueled the wily Dan Haren, he also shut out an extremely potent Angels offense - in Anaheim. Ever since then, Diamond has been on cruise control, possessing a 5-2 record with a 2.13 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Most impressive, of course, is the fact that he’s only walked SIX battersall season! In fact, he’s walked one or less batter in six of his seven starts, although unfortunately, the one start where he walked more than one came in his last start, in which he also surrendered a season-high four earned runs against the Phillies. No worries, though, as he walked only two in that outing, and that’s the thing I love about Scott Diamond. He MAKES you beat him with the bat; it’s not common to find a pitcher with such a low walk rate, and I appreciate hurlers with that ability. While he’s not a good strikeout pitcher, if you are to beat Scott Diamond, you have to do it by finding holes through the infield or looping the ball into certain spots in the outfield, which is tough to do. What makes Diamond tougher is that he’s only given up six homers this year so the only way you can beat him is by stringing together singles and doubles consecutively, which won’t be easy in a National League game when you have the pitcher up every three innings. Diamond should continue the roll he’s in (Pittsburgh in the bottom third of baseball against left-handed pitching), not to mention continue his bid for a spot on the AL all-star team.
That's just one half to the equation; the other, luckily, is no scrub either, that being Kevin Correia. Yes, his numbers are not special at all (2-6, 4.43 ERA, 1.32 WHIP), and his 24:21 K:BB ratio isn’t pretty, but it’s not like his numbers are horrible. In fact, Correia has shown this year that he can still be a solid pitcher, even if in flashes, as half of his starts have clocked in as official quality outings. Unfortunately, Correia hasn’t had an official quality start in June (He just missed one in the beginning with a start where he went 5.2 IP giving up only two runs in Milwaukee), but maybe the Law of Averages can aid us here, as he’s a bit better than that, and isn’t facing an offense that lights the world on fire or anything (Plus Joe Mauer is doubtful for tonight). The main thing I like about Correia, which is something I only noticed this season, is that he’s actually a passionate pitcher. I feel like I mention this every time I take a Kevin Correia start, but from watching him in a few instances this season, he surprisingly invests himself very emotionally, more so than I notice from most pitchers - and that’s saying something when I’ve watched literally every starting pitcher in all of baseball (Thank you, Extra Innings package). Thus, Correia is not the type of guy that will just roll over and let things snowball; he cares more than most how his start turns out, and with a fine chance to record his first quality start in the month of June on this Tuesday night (The Twins are in the bottom third of the league in hitting versus right-handed pitching), I think he’ll capitalize. 8.5 runs is a high line for this type of pitching matchup in a National League park.
Other 6/19 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Aaron Harang vs Brandon McCarthy UNDER 7(Please tell me this is the same Brandon McCarthy we’ve grown accustomed to in recent years. I hate taking pitchers coming off an injury, even if it’s minor, but the line being 7 is too good to pass up)
Scott Feldman vs Edinson Volquez OVER 7(As a Ranger fan, I’ve given Scott Feldman numerous opportunities, since he had that wonderful season in 2009. But in 2012, he just doesn’t have it anymore, and he’s proven that countless times already. Volquez was one of my darling sleepers this year that I’ve been 100-percent right on, but I don’t think this will be one of his better outings)
Lance Lynn vs Justin Verlander OVER 7 (Justin Verlander might be the best American League pitcher, but this season, there have been a few times where he actually looked vulnerable, unlike in 2011. Lance Lynn is someone I’ve always liked and it’s nice to see him succeed in this unexpected dominant fashion he has put on display, but I sense he gives up at least a few in this MLB Network Tuesday night Detroit setting)
Also of Note: Not taking it yet, but Outman vs Hamels is a VERY frustrating pitching matchup to analyze. I want to go under (The line went from 8 to 7.5 overnight), but a 6-2/8-2 outcome is very possible. I’ll be researching this one more throughout the day, as Josh Outman is much better than his awful numbers indicate and can be a very interesting southpaw. Hmmmm
**May Add More Over/Under(s) ThroughoutDay Leading Up To Gametime**
