Wednesday: Texas goes Bass fishing YTD: 147-124, 46.6 units

ofred · Jun 20, 2012

Very tired, but wanted to get this one in.

Texas RL. One unit
Texas -1. 2units
Texas -1/2 first 5 innings. 2 units.

I am risking a lot of my winnings this week, but oh hell…. better than playing with money I have than money I will owe later. Texas is an elite AL team, playing better finally. Josh Hamilton and Beltre might be coming back to life. And those bench guys are good, like Snyder and Gentry. San Diego hits better away from Petco Park. How else to explain Feldman's best start of the year. Also, it could be that the Pads are going to regress to their norm, which can be quite awful. Also, SD is a poor NL team. Don't be fooled by their sweep in Seattle- the Mariners are hopeless at home.
If you have been following inter league play, the AL is dominating again overall. Except for Dickey. He dominates all. Bass is a right-hander which Texas thrives on. He has pitched very poorly lately: Last 26 IPs, 28 runs and a crappy walk: strikeout ratio. Earlier in the year, that was not the case. I think that is a sign for pitchers that they are losing command, or confidence, or hitters have them figured out, or maybe their luck has run out - or maybe all of those. Darvish had one outstanding outing last time(with only 2 BBs), while prior to that had lost his control. But Darvish has such a repertoire, and change of speeds, that even if his command is off a bit, Texas can win this game. Though SD has gotten their hits in the past 2 games, they aren't hitting HRs (of course, who does at Petco?) And they haven't seen a pitcher this good in the past 2 days.

ofred · Jun 20, 2012

Can't figure out why the Yankees total is at 10. Texeira is out. Hanson has pitched well on the road and against the AL East. Braves don't hit well in day games. Hughes has been great, very strong BB:K ratio in last starts. Both have good bullpens. Bottom half of Yankee lineup weak. Is it because two righties are going and left-handed pitchers will be pulling HRs into the right field seats? LF is tough though. Not an official play, but I'm small on the under 10.

moocow · Jun 20, 2012

Total has climbed from 9 to 10 because of the weather. May be hottest day of the year so far at ny bandbox

ofred · Jun 20, 2012

Phillies TT over 4.5 for one unit. Alex White is the worst pitcher still allowed to pitch in the majors two years running, and still starting. That's the state of Colorado's pitching staff. Remember they tried Moyer, Jeff Francis and assorted other washed up guys. Sure White gets bombed in Colorado, everyone does. But he's almost as bad on the road. A 6.48 ERA this year on the road. In his last 2 years in 81 IPs, 66 runs, and 19 HRs. That's almost one HR per 4 innings. His K:BB ratio is 55:32- ugly. Mayberry is starting to hit(and with power), Ruiz is back and the Phillies need to start making a push if they have any hope of staying in contention. Rockies BP could also add to the run total. They are overused and gotta be tired.

ofred · Jun 20, 2012

Yankee Stadium is not a bandbox. It just has that short RF porch. CF and LCF are deep. One of the reasons hitters hit so many HRs there is that the Yankees and other AL East teams have so many good power hitters. Also some of the more inexperienced RHPs don't know enough to pitch away from left handed hitters. Anyways, like I said I wouldn't invest much either way.

moocow · Jun 20, 2012

Yankees game total on its way to 11..i would wait if your gonna play under o fred. Dont think i have seen a total move up 2 runs besides wrigley or pitching change. GL today

Maris9 · Jun 20, 2012

Get away day game with both teams also off tomorrow. Spots like this always scare me for the over.
Might join you on the under if it gets much higher.

ofred · Jun 20, 2012

Yeah. That is strange. Must be something the big bettors like. The wind isn't blowing out.

KC: one unit ML. Count me as a Bruce Chen fan. I think he rebounds today. KC has rebounded lately and has won some tight games. That is a sign they are believing in themselves. The BP has also come through. This is more of a bet against Lyles. His Walk: strikeout ratio is disturbing his last 6 starts. He has given up 24 runs in 26 IPs. He is another pitcher who seems to have no out pitch. All that contact catches up to you. Astro BP has not been good as of late and some of their hitters slumping. I'll take the AL in this one.

ofred · Jun 20, 2012

Arizona -1/2 first 5 innings. 2 units. Vargas has usually been very good first half of seasons, not true this year. 15 HRs in 98 innings. Even in Safeco he has given them up homers. Cahill has been amazing- only 3 HRs this year- quite remarkable in their ballpark. Mariners do hit well on the road, but have off days vs. good pitching like Sale and Miley. D-Backs starting to heat up.

Arizona TT. over 4.5 one unit.

ofred · Jun 20, 2012

Make a note to myself: Mariners can really hit any right-hander on the road. This is Cahill's worst start in a while. True to form, though, Vargas is giving up the long ball.

varkeyboy · Jun 20, 2012

o fred said:
Make a note to myself: Mariners can really hit any right-hander on the road. This is Cahill's worst start in a while. True to form, though, Vargas is giving up the long ball.

........and remember this, Cahill is not as effective at HOME, compared to on the ROAD.

ofred · Jun 20, 2012

Still a decent chance to win the 2 unit play. Tie score, man on second- 0 outs.

* Really eyeing that Nats game. Archer has a very good slider, great strikeout pitcher. But I noticed in his last 6 games in AAA, his stats have regressed. They say his low 90s fastball is too straight. This is probably nonsense, but you've got to see his picture on mlb Yahoo- he looks stoned out of his mind. Anyways, Strasburg and the Nat bullpen vs. this kid and a slumping Rays team. Juice is really high though. Maybe a RL?

* Arizona 2-0, + 3 units……. 3-0 for the day. If Texas comes through, sweet.

moocow · Jun 20, 2012

Bombs away in Ari. Nice calls on the 1H and TT. Thanks

ofred · Jun 20, 2012

On the Texas- SD game, I'm also hoping Darvish is better acclimated to the coolish San Diego weather. More like Japan. Pitching in that hellhole in Arlington has got to be tough for a Japanese pitcher. Personally, being from the Northwest, I don't know how the fans can enjoy it. Maybe because their team is so good?

varkeyboy · Jun 20, 2012

o fred said:
On the Texas- SD game, I'm also hoping Darvish is better acclimated to the coolish San Diego weather. More like Japan. Pitching in that hellhole in Arlington has got to be tough for a Japanese pitcher. Personally, being from the Northwest, I don't know how the fans can enjoy it. Maybe because their team is so good?

Not sure how ppl sit in that HEAT either....it's gotta be tough.......but they must love their Rangers to sit through 9 innings. I can't wait to go to the White Sox game this Friday evening. I get to see Chris Sale pitch for the very first time.......can't wait!

Great job thus far, GO RANGERS!

ofred · Jun 20, 2012

Chris Sale might be the next great pitcher in the AL. I bet him almost every game he starts. If the Sox can find a veteran starter to fill out that rotation, they'll be right in it to the end.

ofred · Jun 20, 2012

Anthony Bass will need some excellent fielding to stay in this game. Unfortunately for him, he's got the old and slow Kotsay in left, and the sloppy Will Venable in right(with 6 errors already, which is high for an OF). Maybin will need to play extra good tonight. The infield isn't any better. Of course, Texas has some fielding issues too- but not this bad.

varkeyboy · Jun 20, 2012

o fred said:
Chris Sale might be the next great pitcher in the AL. I bet him almost every game he starts. If the Sox can find a veteran starter to fill out that rotation, they'll be right in it to the end.

I know, we def need another starter. Danks is probably going to be out for 2 months..

ofred · Jun 20, 2012

See post #12 about Nats game. This has the potential for a blowout. Strasburg had that little mediocre spell in May, but is now back in great form. Besides his high 90s fastball, his off speed stuff is working, and his command is very good for a young guy. Only 20 BBs in 77 IPs. Most impressive is his BB:k ratio. I also like his competitiveness- how he shuts down Atlanta, their division rival- how he went into Fenway and Toronto and dominated. He can also hit- .350! It's like having a DH. I also think that the Nats BP is very capable of finishing the game. This new kid Archer will have to be amazing to win this game. ASposted earlier, his last 6 AAA games make me wonder if he's more hittable than advertised. Rays lineup has also never seen Strasburg, and they're hitting below norm lately anyways. One unit RL- not bad at +115.

ofred · Jun 20, 2012

A pair of underdogs:
Twins ML, first 5 innings. Going with the hotter pitcher. Twins hit LHPs better, and something might be wrong with Bedard. He is a delicate sort. Liriano has changed his release point and is a new man. The Pirates are tough at home, but overall a poor hitting team.

Cubs ML. First 5 innings. Yes the Cubs again! 3 days in a row. Randy Wells is a gamer with little talent. Floyd is a talent who can't get his head straight. Wells has been able to win games like this in recent years. Somehow he might be able to hold on for 5 innings until the Cubs BP blows it late. Also, as I said in yesterday's post, this is the Cubs World Series. Then they'll go back to being the Cubs (maybe?). Right now they are hitting a little better than the White Sox. This game should be fun to watch.