The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - June 20, 2012 - YTD: 181-177-16

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2012 MLB O/U Record: 181-177-16, -$1,505 (Been making bigger bets this year, with countless bad breaks concerning the bullpens, obviously)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104

Another 5-1 day yesterday - my second in the past three days - which is a strong sign I’m getting back into my consistent rhythm. The unfortunate thing was that I barely made any money, as that one loss was my best bet Diamond vs Correia under 8.5, although I wasn’t really wrong with the pitching matchup, as each pitcher went over five innings and they gave up a combined four runs, in helping it be 2-0 in the 6th inning… Before this year, an under as high as 8.5 with those parameters in a National League park would hit AT LEAST 75-percent of the time, but as the theme of this year continues, bullpens continue to get pounded and blow countless unders every single day. Let’s see what today has in store…


(Posting this early because I have one of the afternoon games. Additional games and write-ups to be posted later)


Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros (Best Bet) -$108 for $90
Bruce Chen vs Jordan Lyles
UNDER 9

This isn’t at all a flashy pitching matchup in the finale of this interesting Royals/Astros series, but it should be one that is just good enough to get under that 9 at Minute Maid Park on this Wednesday afternoon. At first glance, it appears to simply only be a matchup of two guys sporting an ERA north of 5, and that’s actually something we can use in our favor, as these are two hurlers who are better than that and should see their final statline finish below that when all is said and done. This sentiment could especially be applied to Bruce Chen, who, aside from being one of the nicest people in the game, is actually also one of the most underrated as well. With an ERA below 4.20 in each of the past two seasons, it’s easy to believe that Chen is one of the more underappreciated pitchers in all of baseball, as despite not being overpowering, he manages to survive well for himself in the superior American League. Coming off his worst start in quite some time, when he was pelted for six runs in 1.2 IP (Including two home runs allowed), Chen will be much poised to bounce back from that, and should have a leg up on the competition today, considering the Astros have the worst batting average in the National League against left-handed pitching. This is a solid spot for Chen today, as since his intelligence and ability of knowing how to pitch ranks as one of his high strengths, I think he’ll be able to capitalize quite well on his assignment for today.

Opposing him is the more unknown variable, that being youngster Jordan Lyles, who is yet to really take off at this point in his still-early Major League career - but that doesn’t mean it won’t happen. Lyles has a good track record in the minor leagues, and while it hasn’t been able to fully translate at the Major League level just yet, he has shown flashes of being a fine pitcher, registering three quality starts out of his seven total outings thus far in 2012. He was impressively on his way towards one in his last start in Texas, which is about the toughest thing a pitcher can do, but Lyles ran into a bad fifth inning (Done in by some errors also), in which up to that point, he was shutting them out. I believe the skill is there for Lyles to stick consistently in the Major Leagues, it’s just about putting it all together in one start on a regular basis. I hope he recognizes that and was able to take more good away from bad from his last start, when he wasa ctually dominating the best lineup in baseball for the first four innings. The potential is there, and with the line as high as 9, we have some room to play with, but if Lyles is able to bounce back very effectively from his past few so-so starts, we may not even need that extra margin for error. Let’s get that under.


**Will Add More Over/Unders Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
(Another big bet of mine today is Francisco Liriano vs Erik Bedard under 8/8.5 so start thinking about it. Writeup will come later)
 
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Good start for Lyles in that ten-pitch first inning. He's a very confidence-oriented pitcher, which explains why it's always one bad inning that does him in when he has an off outing. As long as he strings together similar innings like that efficient first one, he's on pace for an excellent start today.
 
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Both starters look tremendous. Like I said, just two underrated guys who you 100-percent know will end up with better numbers than what they had coming into today's game. It's always a good card to play in a given matchup.
 

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I had F5 UNDER 4.5 in Houston. Thanks to my boy CT!! Prob my easiest winner of the year...
 
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I had F5 UNDER 4.5 in Houston. Thanks to my boy CT!! Prob my easiest winner of the year...

Lol it's been real smooth but I didn't think it would be this easy when it's an under involving Bruce Chen and Jordan Lyles. I was expecting a 5-2ish kind of game, but at the end of the day, couldn't have been more right on this one.

For those watching the game, you see how dominant the Royals bullpen really is, recording ALL of their 7 outs up to this point via the strikeout (Including 4 from the very impressive youngster Kelvin Herrera. My friend worked for their Double-A Arkansas affiliate last year and warned me just how good Herrera can be), which is why Monday's under loss stung so much when it was 4-2 in the bottom of the 8th. Their ERA collectively is below 2.90 now, which ranks among the best in all of baseball. Should've had that one sealed down Monday because of that, but it's a moot point now.
 
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Good start to the day. Not much else on my card for this Wednesday evening, but this is how it looks at the moment...


**Dollar Amounts To Be Added Later Leading Up To Gametime**


Minnesota Twins @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Francisco Liriano vs Erik Bedard
UNDER 8

Do NOT at all be fooled by Francisco Liriano’s 1-7 record, 6.24 ERA, and 1.60 WHIP. Since returning to the rotation in late-May, it’s safe to say that Liriano has officially turned his season around in a huge way, retaining some of his old form when he was a pretty notable effective pitcher. In fact, he’s made four starts since receiving this second opportunity in 2012, and three of those outings were quality ones that saw him give up only four runs in a total of 18 innings. His one off start was a game where he issued four runs in five-plus against the Cubs, which can happen, so it’s acceptable, given how the rest of his sample size has fared since re-joining the Minnesota pitching staff. Best of all, Liriano’s impressive strikeout numbers are still intact, as he’s mowed down at least six batters in each of those aforementioned four starts, which is a major reason he was struggling so mightily throughout the beginning of the season - he wasn’t striking anyone out, which was a strength that helped shoot him up amongst the better ranked American League pitchers. But early on, he had ZERO starts out of his first six with more than five strikeouts, which led to him registering an ERA over 9. Now, that number has been chopped a third of the way down, and as long as he continues overpowering opposing lineups again, as he has been since his return, this considerable emergence willu ndoubtedly continue, especially here tonight in a National League ballpark.

The tougher factor concerning this under will be the performance of Erik Bedard, as he’s coming off a stretch that has seen him surrender five or more runs in two of his past three starts. However, sprinkled in the middle there is a dazzling seven-inning, two-run performance against the Royals that produced a victory, leading me to believe that Bedard hasn’t fallen off the wagon just yet, and therefore is easily capable of bouncing back. The big hurdle I am worried about is that the Twins are in the top ten in baseball in average against left-handed pitching, and another striking stat is that they have struck out the fewest against southpaws as well, which is supposed to be a strength of Bedard’s, given his 62 Ks in 66 IP. Luckily for this under, though, it is most likely that Joe Mauer will miss another game tonight so that could potentially help us. The bottom line is that overall this season, Bedard has been very solid, despite his 4-7 record, and coming off his worst start of the year, he’ll be extra motivated to bounce back from it, with a nice opportunity to do so tonight at home. Eight runs should be enough to work within trying to remain under.


Other 6/20 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Jake Westbrook vs Rick Porcello OVER 10


**May Add More Over/Under(s) ThroughoutDay Leading Up To Gametime**
 
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Final $$ amounts for my 7 o'clock games...

Liriano vs Bedard UNDER 8/8.5 - $84 for $80 ($63 for $60 on U8, $21 for $20 on U8.5)
Westbrook vs Porcello OVER 10 - $24 for $20
White vs Blanton OVER 9 - $18 for $15
 
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Alright 3-1 & hit both top bets, getting back into that rhythm again, which is most important of all
 

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