The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - June 21, 2012 - YTD: 184-178-16

2012 MLB O/U Record: 184-178-16, -$1,344 (Been making bigger bets this year, with countless bad breaks, obviously)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104

3-1 yesterday including nailing both top bets in Chen vs Lyles under and Liriano vs Bedard under, which makes me 14-5 overall over the past few days. This is the kind of run I needed to get back into my comfortable rhythm, so instead of talking about, let me just move on to today, since, as one wise member on here pointed out, this is a “What Have YouDone For Me Lately” industry. Let’s see what this fine Thursday has to offer…


(Posting this early because I have the 1 o’clock game, albeit not in a big bet. The rest of my card will obviously be posted later with more extensive analysis than this first game)


Kyle Lohse vs Jacob Turner UNDER 10.5 -$18 for $15
By now, you guys obviously know how dedicated and passionate I am when it comes to my dear MLB Over/Unders. I sincerely believe there is not one person out there who has studied them or become so attached to them as much as I have, as I essentially go over the daily matchups 24/7, which has been the exact case for the past few years. That being said… I must say this is one of the most bizarre lines I’ve ever seen.10.5 for this pitching matchup? Why? Because the St. Louis Cardinals are playing in an American League ballpark? I know the 17 MPH winds have something to do with it, but those winds aren’t even blowing completely out (More towards the third baseline/foul territory. Most importantly, Kyle Lohse, as much as I used to think he was overrated, has proven to be a legitimately quality pitcher. Last year was clearly no fluke, as he’s currently 6-2 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. What else does he have to do to gain the respect he deserves of being an upper rotation pitcher? Before 2011, he had zero respect from me, but the consistency he has displayed since then up to this point has earned him otherwise in catching my attention. Why? Because obviously he made some adjustments and is now a solid pitcher. And it’s not like he’s hit a rough patch or anything, he’s given up three runs or lessin five out of his past six starts.

Or maybe Vegas is just extremely underrating Jacob Turner? Let’s not forget that this guy is a top prospect. He struggled abit in his first taste of the big leagues a year ago, but that was 2011. Turner has excelled mightily in the minor leagues this year, going 3-3 with a 2.83 ERAand 1.21 WHIP in 11 starts. That’s enough of a sample size to believe that Turner has made any necessary adjustments needed to improve on his first MajorLeague stint a year ago, and I believe he’ll handle himself decently. With the line at 10.5, we certainly have a fine margin for error, and while I hate the notion of taking an over/under mostly because of the line itself, this is a good situation to do it in, given his pedigree as a higher-end prospect. It’s worth a small bet.


**Will Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**

In addition, for those that might think Jacob Turner could struggle from feeling pressure, or lack of mind strength, since I believe this is only a spot start for him with not much potential to immediately become a permanent fixture in the Tigers rotation, then I counter with the fact that there was a spot start Turner made last year on a nationally broadcasted FOX Saturday afternoon game (Filling in for one of my favorite pitchers, Duane Below!!), in which he filled in and was outstanding in a higher-pressure situation (Being on national TV in parts of the country), so hopefully he gives me more of that, as I had that under last year.

I usually dont take O'U's but today I have Det/Cards Over 10. Line actually opened at 9.5 and I see you got it at its peak when it went to 10.5, which helps you of course. I dont like that you have the under as you play o/u's all day and i only do it afew times a year, but most people are on the under in this one and the line keeps going up. Im seeing a 7-4 type game but i may be totally wrong here.

skyla316 said:

I usually dont take O'U's but today I have Det/Cards Over 10. Line actually opened at 9.5 and I see you got it at its peak when it went to 10.5, which helps you of course. I dont like that you have the under as you play o/u's all day and i only do it afew times a year, but most people are on the under in this one and the line keeps going up. Im seeing a 7-4 type game but i may be totally wrong here.

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Yeah I'm surprised the line was as high as it is - the extreme winds in Detroit today aren't even blowing completely out. If anything, it might have knocked down that high flyball off the bat from Prince Fielder, since it was in right field, that could have been a solo homer. But you could still win this one, this wasn't a game I was going to bet on until I saw the line moved up to 10.5, which was worth a small bite, given there's a proven quality upper rotation pitcher on the mound going up against a guy that, apparently, a lot of people, including linesmakers, forgot is a very high-ranked prospect. But I didn't have a big feel on it, and when I take games like that, I can have mixed results.

I was actually thinking Turner might get whacked his 3rd time through the lineup. He is already thrown a lot of pitches and keep in mind he hasnt pitched in a while, but its looking good for you right now. its my smallest bet of the day anyway, as i see its yours too. GL with you day today though, youve been looking good this week

skyla316 said:

I was actually thinking Turner might get whacked his 3rd time through the lineup. He is already thrown a lot of pitches and keep in mind he hasnt pitched in a while, but its looking good for you right now. its my smallest bet of the day anyway, as i see its yours too. GL with you day today though, youve been looking good this week

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Thank you, and to you as well. Yeah you could be right about Turner, he's still yet to get to that third trip around the lineup but I can see them getting to him for at leat a couple at that point

Here's the rest of my card for tonight. Dollar amounts for the 7 o'clock games will be posted leading up to gametime...


Colorado Rockies @ Philadelphia Phillies (Best Bet)
Jeff Francis vs Vance Worley
UNDER9.5

Coming into the 2012 season, I thought there was no way a Jeff Francis under would be one of my daily best bets. Afterall, this is someone I struggled with mightily last year (3-7-2 in his over/unders last year… not even sure why I bet nine Jeff Francis games in 2011), and this is also a guy who a lot of people thought wouldn’t find his way back to the Majors, especially when he was stuck in minor league purgatory at the beginning of this year in Cincinnati. Well, luckily for him, he was able to escape his minors deal and garner an opportunity with his old club, the Rockies, with whom he had significant success with years ago. It’s a much different scenario this time around, however, as the Rockies have the worst starting pitching staff in baseball - in fact, it’s so bad that manager Jim Tracy has put a universal pitch count on all of his starting pitchers, topping them off at 75-85 pitches (Which is a huge mistake, in my opinion. That completely messes with a starting pitcher’s mindset if they know beforehand that they won’t be allowed to go deep into ballgames. What a monumental error this will turn out to be), but with a guy like Francis, the only veteran in this rotation, he still may be allowed to contribute an extensive start, sincehe’s been there before and knows how to pitch deep into games. Francis has not looked particularly good in his first two starts, but this past Friday in Detroit in his last start (A best bet victory for The Cat with the over, by the way), Francis was actually holding his own before running into trouble in the sixth. Overall, he went past five innings and gave up four runs, which can be considered acceptable given where he’s at in his career, and that it was only his second start back. One of Francis’ strengths over the years was his intelligence, knowing how to pitch, mixing speeds and hitting the right locations, which is something he’s re-adjusting to since he got a late start to his 2012 season. He showed some of that against the Tigers and I think he will continue his progress in the right direction in giving us a fine start, even at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park. Vegas apparently thinks so also, as evident in inexplicably moving the line down overnight from 9.5 to 9. If anything, I would have thought it would jump to 10.

The more comfortable option concerning this under obviously lies in the skillset of the other pitcher involved here, that being the uber underrated Vance Worley. The Phillies’ right-hander came off the disabled list at the very beginning of this month and has looked like his old self in his three starts since, allowing only four earned runs. At the same time, though, he’s also yielded five unearned runs, as his defense has let him down considerably in two of those three starts, but that’s something that should actually help us out, as extremely bad fielding like that is unusual and the Law of Averages can be applied in such situations, which should help ensure a clean bill of fielding behind him here tonight. Best of all, his best start after returning from injury came in his most recent outing, when he fired seven excellent innings in Toronto, limiting those potent Blue Jay bats to five hits and one earned run, while striking out five and walking only two. It’s evident that he’s back to full strength, and with the Phillies desperately needing guys to step up in their effort of trying to escape last place, Worley comes off as the type of guy who gains extra motivation in instances such as that (The same could maybe be said for Jeff Francis entering a similar scenario with a desperate Rockies team), which puts him in an even better position today. Going back to the line, I’m real curious as to why it would go down from 9.5. to 9. It CAN’T be from extra action on the under, as these are two hot offenses right now, and the Rockies’ pitching has been horrendous this year - especially lately - so why would the general public attack the under so swiftly? I don’t believe that. It’s because Vegas agrees with me that both guys will churn out nice efforts tonight, and considering I’ve been 100-percent right on the first two games of the series (Predicted the exact 7-2 outcome in Game 1; Won the over in last night’s Game 2), it’s pretty safe to tail my under here.


Los Angeles Dodgers @ Oakland Athletics - $48 for $40
Clayton Kershaw vs Travis Blackley
OVER 6.5

I rarely get a vibe for an over on a Clayton Kershaw game, but I have one here, as perhaps I’m finally accepting the small decline that Mr. Kershaw has endured in 2012. A year ago, he was an absolute consistent unders machine, no matter what the line was. This season, however, he hasn’t been his old dominant self, having given up at least three earned runs in each of his past four outings - Kershaw only pulled that off nine times ALL SEASON in ’11. I mean, this is actually a perfect opportunity for Kershaw to finally get back on track, scoring an assignment in an extreme ballpark like Oakland Coliseum, and against an offense that ranks as one of the weaker ones in all the American League. That being known, I’ll be fine if the A’s can get two runs off him.

The bigger reason to divulge in this over has more to do with Travis Blackley and his struggles since re-entering a Major League rotation for, I believe, the first time since 2004 (Graduated high school that year, really doesn’t feel that long ago). Blackley has made three starts thus far and has only went at least five innings in one of them. On the contrary, that one start was his most recent, when he hurled six good innings against the Padres at home, containing them to only two runs and five hits. This is a better offense he’s facing this time around, though, and I believe they’ll strike him for at least a few. With the line as low as it is, it’s a good opportunity to capitalize on an over with Travis Blackley involved.


Other 6/21 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Matt Moore vs Gio Gonzalez UNDER 7 (Matt Moore finally starting to live up to his mega expectations, which is what I’ve been waiting for all year - he’s THAT good. And I’ve been on the Gio Gonzalez bandwagon since the summer of 2010, when he was also shutting down opposing lineups on a regular basis, albeit much more quietly while no one noticed him in Oakland. He’s that good, also)

Carlos Zambrano vs Daisuke Matsuzaka OVER 10.5/11 (Waiting to see if the line drops, as it shouldn’t be as high as 11 to begin with, concerning both pitchers are established names with good track records. But I think Zambrano’s regression will continue, as he’s not as good as his high 3’s ERA, while Dice-K should give up at least a few to this Marlins offense. Both lineups hot right now, as they’ve displayed all series, and Vegas is obviously protecting themselves against that glaring fact)


Also of Note: When I first saw Liam Hendriks vs JamesMcDonald, my heart skipped a few beats. After all, this is a matchup of two of my top ten favorite pitchers. As you all should know by now, J-Mac is actually my No. 2 favorite pitcher in all of baseball (Behind Bud Norris, of course),and I was one of the few people, if there was even anyone else at all, who correctly predicted his journey into becoming a top Major League pitcher. Meanwhile, Hendriks was one of my big sleepers coming into the year, and despite his early season struggles, I still stand fully behind him in thinking he can become a real quality pitcher. HOWEVER, I interestingly had an over vibe for this specific matchup. If the line was 8 and not 8.5, I’d go for the over,b ut will not be doing so, as 5-3 is possible.

Final $$ amounts for rest of my games...

Francis vs Worley UNDER 9.5 - $71 for $60
Zambrano vs Matsuzaka OVER 11 - $33 for $30
Moore vs Gonzalez UNDER 7 - $30 for $30

And if you can get two of my absolute favorites, Hendriks vs McDonald, at over 8, I recommend it

I like what I'm seeing so far. Jeff Francis Crew

I hope your wins (cash) start snow-balling. stay the course.

Another winning day today, 2-1-2 including another victorious best bet. However, this just felt like an extremely anti-climatic day.

No. 1, is there anyone in Vegas that has explained WHY Carlos Zambrano vs Daisuke Matsuzaka was over/under 11? Zambrano is having a renaissance season, Dice-K has looked okay since coming back from injury, and they have the nerve to make that game 11? It's one thing if the game was at Wrigley Field with their explosive legendary winds, or if it was at Coors Field or Arlington. Fenway Park is obviously one of the better hitter's parks in the league, but a pitching matchup of that caliber in Fenway has NEVER been 11 in my years doing this. Not trying to complain, just pointing out how this was a game where I felt cheated by irrational Vegas linesmakers. Just an observation.

No. 2, I could not have been anymore right, as expected, with Liam Hendriks vs James McDonald, since they're two of my top ten favorite pitchers in ALL of baseball... and I'm incredibly frustrated I didn't bet it. There are just some days where I get too fancy, for lack of a better term, and dance around the obvious winners for whatever reason. That's a mental lapse on my part.

No. 3, Matt Moore vs Gio Gonzalez was the definition of a push. Both guys didn't have their best stuff, but pitched okay enough in attempting to score an under. Both over bettors and under bettors were correct when betting on this game, although I was hoping initially that the line for this game would be 7.5.

At the end of the day, it's a profitable day, and when you're trying to build steam in any form of betting in any sport, that's how you have to look at it: If it's a winning day, you simply move on to the next one and keep building on it. I'm 16-6-2 over the past few days, and now I'm just looking to continue that into Friday. I'm really getting into my comfort zone again, though, and that's most important of all.