Friday: Last weekend of interleague play. Trolling for AL winners. YTD: 157-129, + 52.7 units

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2-1 Thursday

Red Sox -1 for 3 units.
Red Sox -1/2 first 5 innings for one unit.

I like this one for many reasons:
1. Lester has not had a good season, although of late, has pitched better. In Chicago, one bad pitch and he lost his shutout and gave up 3 runs. The game before that he shut down a hot Washington team, striking out 9. His walk: K ratio has been good in the past month, with only 1 HR in his last 4 starts. Though he has not pitched well at home this year, he hasn't pitched well overall- and last year he was as good at Fenway as he was on the road. Plus he's such a competitor that expects more from himself. With Beckett on the DL, more is expected of him and he can handle it.
2. Boston's recent surge is giving the team hope. The secondary guys in the order are hitting and hitting clutch hits. They are clubbing it especially well at home. Good vibes in Fenway. Now if Pedroia, Gonzalez and Youk can begin to hit, they could go on a serious tear.
3. Jurrjens might be the opposite of Lester. He has whined down in AAA when other younger, better guys are getting called up. Even though he has pitched pretty poorly there. Self -pity and doubt, while facing a hot Boston team in a hitter's park is not a good recipe for success. Jurrjens fastball is topping at about 89-90, far below his 93-95 speeds of 2 years ago. His breaking stuff is not as sharp and neither is his command. He has had a couple of good outings in AAA, and I think the Braves are saying "Here, show us what you got, or shut up and enjoy life in the minors" .
 

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4. The Braves hit Hughes hard in Yankee Stadium, but there was something freaky about that total going up, like the hot weather or the day game or somebody was on the take…. whatever, I don't think the Braves slump is over. Their last 2 games against lefties (Sabathia and Chen) were not good. Sabathia struck out 10 and Chen pitched 7 shutout innings. Heyward might be hot, but he is lousy vs. LHP. Chipper Jones does not look like he is at all in the groove, more like retirement ready. Uggla strikeout too much and has 0 HRs in his last 10 games. Their defense up the middle, 2B, SS and C has been poor. The bullpen, other than Kimbrel, has been down this year. And with Jurrjens on the mound, they will need relief before thew 9th inning. I am also questioning Gonzalez as a manager. This is a talented team that doesn't play to their level of talent.
5. Lester will desperately try to keep the streak going, at home, while Jurrjens is going to have an excuse ready when things don't work out.
 

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Another AL pick: Oakland. one unit ML.
Oakland one unit RL. I know the Giants hit Parker earlier this year, but this kid has had some impressive games. Goes into Coors Field and 3 hits the Rockies over 7 IPs. One hits Texas. Pitches great in Fenway and shuts down the rival Angels. In Minnesota(when they started to hit), pitches 6 shutout innings. He seems unflappable and will rise to the occasion, as the streaking A's will, playing the more beloved Bay Area rivals. Finally the A's will get a large crowd to watch them in the Bay Area. Parker's low-mid 90s fastball has movement and sink. His off speed stuff is improving as the season goes on. He does have a few control issues, but doesn't seem to lose composure out of the stretch. Unlike Linecum, who has major issues with runners on base. Linecum's lost velocity isn't his only problem. He seems to be over thinking or losing confidence in his command or maybe is happy with many millions and doesn't have the competitiveness he once he had. The Giants have also been sliding as of late, since the series with the Astros. To use a comparison like the Cubs wanting to win more in their games with the White Sox, maybe the A's will be hungrier this weekend. The A's can hit lately and all their guys are healthy. And as much as I respect the Giants BP, lately it has been off.
 

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Reds TT over 5 for one unit. With Homer Bailey you never know what you'll get, a brilliant shutout or bombs away. At home, he's been poor. With Nick Blackburn, you DO know what you'll get. About 4 or 5 runs per start. His curve is awful, and he hangs way too many sinkers over the plate. Fastball has little movement. He has been consistently awful for 2 years now. If not for his contract, he'd be sayonara. In the Great American Smallpark, it won't get any easier. The Reds love those short power alleys.Also, Capps, the Twins closer is likely out for today, and the Twins middle relief is weak. Just also think the Reds don't want their momentum to go downhill after the sweep in Cleveland. They were hot until these last 2 games. For the Reds, Ludwick is finally starting to hit and Votto is still hot(he thrives at home).
 

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I'm breaking my money management rules for this red sox game. We may not get another shot to fade Jurrjens again. From everything I've read he's been pretty bad at AAA. He pitched 1 inning on Tuesday striking out the first 2, walking the next 2, then giving up a deep fly ball. Feel Bosox will smash him tonight. On ML, -1, and FF all to win 2 units. Typical 1-2 unit bettor in bases...
 

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Don't go overboard. There will be other games like this coming up. If you win 7 out of 10, you'll make some decent cash, but in baseball any one game is never good to over bet.
 

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Fred, good luck tonight buddy! Can't wait for this White Sox game. Get to watch Sale pitch for the 1st time =)
 

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One unit Arizona TT over 4.5. Samardijza is a young pitcher, with talent. Nevertheless, young pitchers on losing clubs go through funks like he is going through now. His control is off, walking 9 in his last 13 IPs. Young pitchers then sometimes groove pitches down the middle of the plate. With the way Arizona has been hitting at home, this just seems like a good bet. Cubs BP might provide a little help to it.

Don't get me started on the Marlins. Oh well, I might as well say it…..This team epitomizes a losing team. Sleazy owner, macho, bombastic manager, high paid superstars who underachieve(Reyes and Ramirez- who are rumored to enjoy the nightlife of Miami), fickle fans, and a team that plays poor fundamentally. Their defense on the left side is mediocre, their bullpen is regressing and Ozzie and Loria are giving lame ass speeches. Going home to Miami, after getting swept in Boston and embarrassed by their state rivals, Tampa, is probably not a good thing. More booing- at least the fans that care. Sanchez has been going through a rough patch lately, though he is still their best starter. He has not done well in interleague play. Romero is needed to step up since their rotation is almost all on the DL. His walks are down in his last 3 or 4 starts. I expect he'll pitch well tonight. The Blue Jays are funny team. They don't hit righties particularly well, but have games where they can crush it. Another AL team. One unit ML.

Also one unit under 8.5 (-120) on the Marlins/ Blue Jays game. Beginning of the series, 2 unfamiliar pitchers. No DH. And a pitcher's ballpark.
 

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Varkey, Thanks for pointing out that game. The juice on it is not too bad, and I'm sold on Sale (bad pun I know). In his last 42 IPs, only 26 hits(that's hard to do), 11 walks and 49 Ks. Only 4 HRs all year. He is better at home and Greinke is much worse on the road. I also think White Sox fans are relieved at winning that last game with the Cubs, and look forward to celebrating with their new pitching stud. The Sox have enough guys that are either lefties or have hit Greinke in the past to get a few runs off of him. Bullpens are about even although the Brewers has been worse in the past 2 weeks. One unit ML on the White Sox.
 

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Don't go overboard. There will be other games like this coming up. If you win 7 out of 10, you'll make some decent cash, but in baseball any one game is never good to over bet.

I hear ya and normally I stay pretty even keel, but I'm still kicking myself for not unloading against Chatwood last year whenever he pitched. When starters are this bad, sometimes you only get a couple chances to take advantage of them. Lester is a risk, but hoping he can give the sox a quality start, which is all they should need as I expect Jurrjens to give up 5 before getting pulled. BOL!
 

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Good news for you. There is a nice 12 mph wind blowing out to right, it's warm, low humidity, and with the Sox having a lefty leaning lineup, you might see a couple of singers out in RF. 5.5 is a high TT, but I might join you on it.

Actually let's make it official. one unit over TT Boston at 5.5. I like the conditions- what is an extra 1 or .5 anyways?
 

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Word. My only worry on the tt is thunderstorms getting jurjens out the game. Probably get 4 or 5 off of him before then though....gl
 

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The ML on Boston is now -190. Last night -171 on 5 Dimes. I guess if you really like a game, it pays to bet it the night before.
 

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The weather situation looks bleak. Either it starts very late or gets replayed as part of a doubleheader this weekend.
 

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Marlins looking "as expected". Wish I didn't take the under too. Unless Romero really shines.
 
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Fred I was all over boston as well. They are a complete disgrace! Ortiz started drama and I had a feeling that would be trouble.
 

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Boston looks like complete crap, Reds blew chances to score all night. Rough night
 

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I am sure I am wishful thinking or hoping, but I have a weird feeling Kimbrel is gonna blow a save and Adrian is gonna hit the ball next inning.
 

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