2012 MLB O/U Record: 186-179-18, -$1,317 (Been making bigger bets this year, with countless bad bullpen breaks, obviously)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Another winning day yesterday, as I went 2-1-2, including a victorious best bet, although it could have been more if Vegas didn’t screw us over bettors in that Zambrano vs Matsuzaka over. By that,I mean the line for that game had no business being 11, as while Fenway Park is obviously one of the better hitter’s parks in all of baseball, I’ve never seen a line that high in Boston with a pitching matchup of THAT caliber, where you have two reputable solid guys. In any case, let’s just keep it rolling on Friday, as I look to keep up my 16-6-2 run over these past several days…
Toronto Blue Jays @ Miami Marlins - $58 for $50
Ricky Romero vs Anibal Sanchez
UNDER 8.5
One of the most glaring reasons that attracted me to this under as much as it has is the curiously high line. After all, it’s a matchup of two very good pitchers with notable track records,pitching in a National League ballpark where you could actually win with aroom-for-error 5-3 score. However, it won’t be that easy, as Ricky Romero appears to have entered a steep decline from his exceptional performance in recent years, as while he’s a marvelous 7-1, he possesses average-for-him numbers of a 4.28 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Those numbers don’t even fully tell the story on Mr. Romero lately, having surrendered at least four runs in each of his past five starts (Some of those outings were three earned runs), which is not a recipe for near-future success. At the same time, though, Romero lasted six or more innings in four of those five assignments, leading me to believe that he’s still on the brink of his old self, which he can salvage here tonight in an indoor setting. I note that because throughout his career, specifically mostly home at the Rogers Centre, Romero sports a 2.80 ERA and 1.14 WHIP indoors, much better than his numbers outside under the sky (3.97 ERA and 1.36 WHIP), and that’s a trend that has continued this year (3.33 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, .183 BAA inside versus a 4.70 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, and .248 BAA outdoors). I like Romero to bounce back at least a little bit here tonight, as he usually steps up in situations like these, where his team really needs him. He’s been the ace for the past couple of years on this Toronto team, standing out well above anyone else, and considering all the recent injuries to the pitching staff lately,this seems like an extra motivational factor that could boost Romero back up to ace status again. He’s a passionate guy who gets emotional on the mound, and players with that characteristic to them usually step up in such instances when their team needs them most.
On the other side contesting him will be the vastly underrated Anibal Sanchez, who is quietly putting together another excellent season. At 3-5 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, it’s hard to imagine why Sanchez is so under the radar - especially in this scenario at home going up against another fellow good pitcher in cozy Marlins Park. It certainly has nothing todo with his strikeout numbers, as Sanchez is ranked amongst the league leaders with 80 Ks in 85 innings. Like Romero, however, the Miami right-hander has gone through a recent rough patch, yielding performances of three runs, four runs,and seven runs in his last three outings. That doesn’t mean Sanchez can’t comeback from it, as while his split stats reveal he’s actually been better pitching on the road than at home, I believe he’ll pump out a good start tonight in effort of getting back on track. I don’t think this will be one of those 2-1/3-0 kind of games, but if it meets my anticipated 4-3/5-2 vision, a winning under in this one is well in sight.
Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates - $44 for $40
Doug Fister vs AJ Burnett
UNDER 7.5
I don’t think many people realize thisbut take a look at the National League leaders for wins - AJ Burnett is hovering around the top with 7! Living in New York, I’ve heard countless moronic Yankee fans wrongfully discuss what a mistake he was residing in their rotation, but in fact, as I stressed all along, it was those same Yankee fans who were the mistake in torturing him through his “struggles,” which were more so due to the fanbase than his actual mechanics. After all, this is someone who has had significant success in the past, and as we all know, there’s justcertain players who can’t handle the mental variable of pitching in the world’smost popular city of New York, let alone other cities that feature unique situations. However, there’s nothing wrong with that, as it’s human nature for a lot of people to just fold under pressure or overthink in certain situations created by the people around you. Burnett is proving just that, in that he is indeed still a great pitcher, and he’s played a large role in helping the Bucs contend for first. I, for one, am happy to see Burnett succeed, as with a 7-2 record and a 3.52 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, he might even make the all-star team (Although he certainly doesn’t deserve it more than teammate James McDonald). In any case, Burnett’s comeback from his fluke eye injury in spring training, when he initially wasn’t even supposed to return until the all-star break, has been one of the better stories around baseball this season. Let’s hope he gives us one of his usual efforts at home tonight, which I’m expecting, considering he’s given up two runs or less in seven of his past eight starts (The one start where he didn’t was three runs allowed).
Speaking of pitchers making comebacks, the same can also be said for the opposing hurler tonight, that being Doug Fister. Ever since coming over to Detroit last year, Fister has been masterful, and appeared to be well on that track before departing early from his first start of 2012 in Boston. One month later, he made a successful return, erasing any doubts that he’d potentially regress, and has seemingly picked up right where he left off. For the season, Fister is only 1-3, but boasts a 2.68 ERA and 1.21WHIP in seven starts, although his numbers would actually be even better than that if not for an outing that saw him give up six earned runs at Fenway Parkin late May. In fact, that is half of the total earned runs he’s allowed all season! Tonight, he draws a favorable matchup against one of the weaker offenses in the National League - in an NL park. Furthermore, we have a favorable trend working in our favor, as nine of the ten Pittsburgh Friday night games this year have all been under, including all five at PNC Park. That’s an underrated stat, as human psychology plays ac onsiderable role in my betting, since it is possible that days of the week (Ex. A person’s mindset differs from playing in a live Friday night game to open up a series, as opposed to the generic Tuesday night affair) can dictate human mindset. Shrug it off if you want but it’s a proven variable to consider in my betting. Even if you don’t agree with that, you do have to agree with the fact that this game consists of two tremendous pitchers that only need to help lead us to a simple 5-2 score for the win, although I must admit that I do fear a 6-2/7-2 outcome. Either way, I like our chances.
Other 6/22 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Christian Friedrich vs Roy Oswalt UNDER10.5 - $32 for $30 (Good to see Roy Oswalt back, let alone with my lifelong favorite team. That’s a high line for an Oswalt start, regardless of how long it’s been since he last pitched in a Major League game. It’s also a good number for anunder considering Christian Friedrich really isn’t as bad as his numbers indicate, and I think will end up with an ERA much lower when all is said and done)
Ubaldo Jimenez vs Lucas Harrell OVER 9 -$23 for $20 (My mastery of Lucas Harrell has been a theme to this 2012 season for me. I’ve always been good with Ubaldo Jimenez so hopefully that adds up to an over victory. This one is more so vibe than stat-picking, as I feel Harrell is really underrated, but this game will get to nine somehow)
Jordan Zimmerman vs Jason Hammel OVER 8.5 - $21 for $20 (VERY shady line. After all, why is it 8.5 and not 9? Other than the fact that this is at Camden Yards, this is a matchup of two very consistent pitchers with ERAs below 3! Thus, Vegas has shown their hand and obviously likes one of these guys to fold, as do I, since both are well overdue for an off outing. Would do it for more if the line was 8, I don't want to lose, yet still be right if the score is 6-2)
Nick Blackburn vs Homer Bailey OVER 9.5- $11 for $10 (Wish the line was 9 and then this would be a bigger bet. But 5-4i s very possible so proceed with caution)
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Another winning day yesterday, as I went 2-1-2, including a victorious best bet, although it could have been more if Vegas didn’t screw us over bettors in that Zambrano vs Matsuzaka over. By that,I mean the line for that game had no business being 11, as while Fenway Park is obviously one of the better hitter’s parks in all of baseball, I’ve never seen a line that high in Boston with a pitching matchup of THAT caliber, where you have two reputable solid guys. In any case, let’s just keep it rolling on Friday, as I look to keep up my 16-6-2 run over these past several days…
Toronto Blue Jays @ Miami Marlins - $58 for $50
Ricky Romero vs Anibal Sanchez
UNDER 8.5
One of the most glaring reasons that attracted me to this under as much as it has is the curiously high line. After all, it’s a matchup of two very good pitchers with notable track records,pitching in a National League ballpark where you could actually win with aroom-for-error 5-3 score. However, it won’t be that easy, as Ricky Romero appears to have entered a steep decline from his exceptional performance in recent years, as while he’s a marvelous 7-1, he possesses average-for-him numbers of a 4.28 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Those numbers don’t even fully tell the story on Mr. Romero lately, having surrendered at least four runs in each of his past five starts (Some of those outings were three earned runs), which is not a recipe for near-future success. At the same time, though, Romero lasted six or more innings in four of those five assignments, leading me to believe that he’s still on the brink of his old self, which he can salvage here tonight in an indoor setting. I note that because throughout his career, specifically mostly home at the Rogers Centre, Romero sports a 2.80 ERA and 1.14 WHIP indoors, much better than his numbers outside under the sky (3.97 ERA and 1.36 WHIP), and that’s a trend that has continued this year (3.33 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, .183 BAA inside versus a 4.70 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, and .248 BAA outdoors). I like Romero to bounce back at least a little bit here tonight, as he usually steps up in situations like these, where his team really needs him. He’s been the ace for the past couple of years on this Toronto team, standing out well above anyone else, and considering all the recent injuries to the pitching staff lately,this seems like an extra motivational factor that could boost Romero back up to ace status again. He’s a passionate guy who gets emotional on the mound, and players with that characteristic to them usually step up in such instances when their team needs them most.
On the other side contesting him will be the vastly underrated Anibal Sanchez, who is quietly putting together another excellent season. At 3-5 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, it’s hard to imagine why Sanchez is so under the radar - especially in this scenario at home going up against another fellow good pitcher in cozy Marlins Park. It certainly has nothing todo with his strikeout numbers, as Sanchez is ranked amongst the league leaders with 80 Ks in 85 innings. Like Romero, however, the Miami right-hander has gone through a recent rough patch, yielding performances of three runs, four runs,and seven runs in his last three outings. That doesn’t mean Sanchez can’t comeback from it, as while his split stats reveal he’s actually been better pitching on the road than at home, I believe he’ll pump out a good start tonight in effort of getting back on track. I don’t think this will be one of those 2-1/3-0 kind of games, but if it meets my anticipated 4-3/5-2 vision, a winning under in this one is well in sight.
Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates - $44 for $40
Doug Fister vs AJ Burnett
UNDER 7.5
I don’t think many people realize thisbut take a look at the National League leaders for wins - AJ Burnett is hovering around the top with 7! Living in New York, I’ve heard countless moronic Yankee fans wrongfully discuss what a mistake he was residing in their rotation, but in fact, as I stressed all along, it was those same Yankee fans who were the mistake in torturing him through his “struggles,” which were more so due to the fanbase than his actual mechanics. After all, this is someone who has had significant success in the past, and as we all know, there’s justcertain players who can’t handle the mental variable of pitching in the world’smost popular city of New York, let alone other cities that feature unique situations. However, there’s nothing wrong with that, as it’s human nature for a lot of people to just fold under pressure or overthink in certain situations created by the people around you. Burnett is proving just that, in that he is indeed still a great pitcher, and he’s played a large role in helping the Bucs contend for first. I, for one, am happy to see Burnett succeed, as with a 7-2 record and a 3.52 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, he might even make the all-star team (Although he certainly doesn’t deserve it more than teammate James McDonald). In any case, Burnett’s comeback from his fluke eye injury in spring training, when he initially wasn’t even supposed to return until the all-star break, has been one of the better stories around baseball this season. Let’s hope he gives us one of his usual efforts at home tonight, which I’m expecting, considering he’s given up two runs or less in seven of his past eight starts (The one start where he didn’t was three runs allowed).
Speaking of pitchers making comebacks, the same can also be said for the opposing hurler tonight, that being Doug Fister. Ever since coming over to Detroit last year, Fister has been masterful, and appeared to be well on that track before departing early from his first start of 2012 in Boston. One month later, he made a successful return, erasing any doubts that he’d potentially regress, and has seemingly picked up right where he left off. For the season, Fister is only 1-3, but boasts a 2.68 ERA and 1.21WHIP in seven starts, although his numbers would actually be even better than that if not for an outing that saw him give up six earned runs at Fenway Parkin late May. In fact, that is half of the total earned runs he’s allowed all season! Tonight, he draws a favorable matchup against one of the weaker offenses in the National League - in an NL park. Furthermore, we have a favorable trend working in our favor, as nine of the ten Pittsburgh Friday night games this year have all been under, including all five at PNC Park. That’s an underrated stat, as human psychology plays ac onsiderable role in my betting, since it is possible that days of the week (Ex. A person’s mindset differs from playing in a live Friday night game to open up a series, as opposed to the generic Tuesday night affair) can dictate human mindset. Shrug it off if you want but it’s a proven variable to consider in my betting. Even if you don’t agree with that, you do have to agree with the fact that this game consists of two tremendous pitchers that only need to help lead us to a simple 5-2 score for the win, although I must admit that I do fear a 6-2/7-2 outcome. Either way, I like our chances.
Other 6/22 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Christian Friedrich vs Roy Oswalt UNDER10.5 - $32 for $30 (Good to see Roy Oswalt back, let alone with my lifelong favorite team. That’s a high line for an Oswalt start, regardless of how long it’s been since he last pitched in a Major League game. It’s also a good number for anunder considering Christian Friedrich really isn’t as bad as his numbers indicate, and I think will end up with an ERA much lower when all is said and done)
Ubaldo Jimenez vs Lucas Harrell OVER 9 -$23 for $20 (My mastery of Lucas Harrell has been a theme to this 2012 season for me. I’ve always been good with Ubaldo Jimenez so hopefully that adds up to an over victory. This one is more so vibe than stat-picking, as I feel Harrell is really underrated, but this game will get to nine somehow)
Jordan Zimmerman vs Jason Hammel OVER 8.5 - $21 for $20 (VERY shady line. After all, why is it 8.5 and not 9? Other than the fact that this is at Camden Yards, this is a matchup of two very consistent pitchers with ERAs below 3! Thus, Vegas has shown their hand and obviously likes one of these guys to fold, as do I, since both are well overdue for an off outing. Would do it for more if the line was 8, I don't want to lose, yet still be right if the score is 6-2)
Nick Blackburn vs Homer Bailey OVER 9.5- $11 for $10 (Wish the line was 9 and then this would be a bigger bet. But 5-4i s very possible so proceed with caution)
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
