The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - June 23, 2012 - YTD: 188-183-18 (1,700 words of top-notch precise analysis)

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2012 MLB O/U Record: 188-183-18, -$1,362 (Been making bigger bets this year, with countless bad bullpen breaks, obviously)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104

Okay, I was due for an off day, although that 2-4 performance really should have been 3-3, as I could not have been anymore right in Blackburn vs Bailey over 9.5 (Both guys gave up four runs and five runs in only five innings of work each), and of course, with my luck, I wasn’t able to get a single run from the bullpens (I wish I could get a huge break like that in an under just once). Furthermore, I even said in my analysis that the only way we would lose that over is if the game finished 5-4… and of course, it finished 5-4, yet I somehow get a “loss” on my record for being all over that matchup. Luckily, it was my smallest bet of the evening, and that still doesn’t take away from my recent week-plus stretch that has seen me go 18-10-2, which I plan on continuing today on what has been one of my best days of the week this year. Let’s see what this wonderful June Saturday has to offer…


**Dollar Amounts For Later Games To Be Posted Leading Up To Gametime**


Toronto Blue Jays @ Miami Marlins - $96 for $85 (Best Bet)
Brett Cecil vs Josh Johnson
UNDER 8.5

I’m wasting no time today, attacking the early game with what will be my biggest over/under on today’s slate. It’s a promising matchup in a pitcher’s park with a favorable line so what else could you ask for at first glance? Dwelling deeper into this contest, the under becomes more appealing, especially with Josh Johnson - the original Josh Johnson, that is - on the mound. For those that may have forgotten about the established ace, Johnson has finally turned his season around, and in a big way. After struggling in such a fashion that no one had ever seen from him (His ERA was 6.61 in early May), the Marlins’ right-hander has produced eight consecutive starts in which he has surrendered three runs orless, even yielding two or less in six of them. As a result, his ERA has dropped considerably to a respectable 4.18 mark, while maintaining a solid 70:27 K:BB ratio through his 84 innings in 2012. Obviously, his confidence is back, which is one of the most important traits in sustaining success as a good pitcher, and his mechanics look to be restored as well. Toronto’s bats have been doing good work all season, but Johnson has been doing his best work at home (A trend that has followed him his whole career), where he’s posted a 3.71 ERA in eight starts. His opposing batting average in those outings is uncharacteristically .304, but I believe that is simply an oddity - there’s no way opponents will continue to hit at that pace off him at home, and that is definitely a number that will start coming down to earth here today.

Everyone knows of Josh Johnson’s stature as a dominant pitcher, but odds are you don’t know about Brett Cecil, so let me explain why he can be just as valuable to this under. Cecil is a guy who we’ve seen in the recent past serve as a fixture in the bottom end of the Blue Jays’rotation, and he was doing a fine job in that role, as evident in his acceptable 4.63 career ERA. In fact, he’s even a former 15-game winner, pulling off such a feat in 2010. With Cecil, we can kind of cheat a little bit, as his first start back in the majors was about a week ago, in which he succeeded tremendously in holding the Phillies to two runs and five hits over five solid innings of work, which is something he can use to springboard himself into consistent production on the mound. Getting the jitters of returning to big-league action out of the way, Cecil can immediately focus on remaining in The Show, which he’ll have an extended opportunity in doing with the Blue Jays’ rotation decimated by injuries. Mentally, that is something that can help the left-hander, having a sense of security in knowing he won’t be jolted back down to minor league purgatory anytime soon. Cecil has been here before, and with this newfound chance - something a lot of pitchers don’t get in multiple quantities - he certainly won’t be taking any start for granted any time soon. Oh, and I’m not done yet with Mr. Cecil. Over his career, Cecil actually has better numbers on the road (4.51 ERA, 1.35 WHIP) than at home (4.76 ERA, 1.46 WHIP), and is a significantly superior pitcher in daytime games (3.97 ERA in 20 starts) compared to at night (4.90 ERA in 46 starts). Plus, the Marlins are 25th in baseball against left-handed pitching with a paltry .226 average against them. So, why not take the under here? There’s tons of evidence in our favor, which justifies making this one a big bet.


SeattleMariners @ San Diego Padres
Felix Hernandez vs Jason Marquis
UNDER 6.5

Interesting combination of pitchers we have here, as while they may seem very different at first glance, their 2012 journeys have actually been very similar. Let’s start with the much more known commodity, that being the great Felix Hernandez, who luckily has seemingly put an end to one of the worst six-start stretches of his entire career, in which he allowed four or more runs in five of six. Hernandez put a stop to it, or at least for now, when he fired seven brilliant innings of one-run ball in his last start, while scattering only six hits and striking out seven. That was against San Francisco at home, and now he faces a similar San Diego offense in a similar extreme pitcher’s venue, that being Petco Park. There’s no reason to break anything down even further, as this is King Felix we’re talking about here. As long as he’s out of his slump, which his last start strongly indicates, then he should continue to run with that newfound momentum in attaining his old dominant status, as he also tries to help his Mariners escape their current losing ways (They’ve been very streaky this year and are due to back a run upwards at this point in time). Furthermore, Hernandez faced SanDiego on June 12, and while he gave up five runs in six innings that game, it was mostly the result of one bad inning later in his outing, which he made an error in (This tremendously messes with a pitcher’s dedicated psyche and focus like Felix), and that led him to uncharacteristically serving up hit-after-hit-after-hit. He was cruising up to that sixth inning and is easily capable of improving on that this time around. No one can be more determined than Felix Hernandez when he’s motivated, which he absolutely will be in tryingto right the wrong of his last start against the Padres.

When you hear the name “Jason Marquis,” the word “under” doesn’t usually cross your mind - at least that’s been the case for most of 2012 - but ever since Marquis landed in San Diego after being dropped with his horrific 8.47 ERA from Minnesota, he’s actually been quite outstanding. Look at these numbers since he became a Padre: 19.1 IP, 20 hits, 4 earned runs allowed, 8 BBs, and 20 Ks. That is much more than passable, as it appears Marquis has made necessary adjustments (The Padres announcers were discussing this in his last start, although you can never tell if Dick Enberg is correct these days at his old age), and his once-excellent sinker is doing wonders for him again. After all, he only had 12 strikeouts in his seven starts with the Twins, and he’s already exceeded that in three starts with the Friars. Call it a product of throwing in pitcher-friendly San Diego if you want, but his best start as a Padre was on the road against these same Mariners when he shut them out over six innings, and tonight’s game is the cozy confines of Petco anyway. I think he’ll continue his resurgence here tonight and keep up with The King in this Saturday night MLB Network affair.


Other 6/23 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Paul Maholm vs Ian Kennedy OVER 9
Madison Bumgarner vs Tyson Ross UNDER 7


Other Over/Under Observations:
-Why is the line for Edwin Jackson vs Wei-Yin Chen set at 8.5? Again, Vegas strongly anticipates an over from this Nationals/Orioles series, especially since they used the same line yesterday in Jordan Zimmerman vs Jason Hammel, which is UNPRECEDENTED considering both guys have an ERA less than 3, and it’s three months into the season. Jackson and Chen have low ERAs as well, albeit not as microscopic as their predecessors from last night, so I’ll be tracking this one to see if it drops to 8. I don’t want to lose with a 6-2 score when I’d be correct in getting an outcome like that, given the good pitchers set to go today.

-Very nice to see Brian Duensing back inthe Twins’ rotation after wrongfully losing that job coming into this year. I always thought he was a very underrated guy that ate up a lot of innings and brought a lot to the table. I’d bite on the under of 9, especially since it’s in a National League park against a top pitcher like Johnny Cueto, but Great AmericanBallpark is obviously a hitter’s park, and the feel for it just wasn’t there. May change my mind, though.

-I’m going to take Chris Capuano vs Ervin Santana under IF the line goes up to 8 from 7.5. This game could easilybe 5-3, airing nationally on FOX.

-Brad Lincoln is a scrub. I don’t care what anyone says. In his brief stints as a starter with the Pirates, he always came off as very hittable to me and I don’t know how much longer he’ll last there. His ERA looks low, but that’s also from bullpen duty, which he is better suited for, in my opinion. I’d take the over of 8.5 but Max Scherzer could easily churn out a lights-out start.


**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
 
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Wow WHAT a catch by Justin Ruggiano on that deep drive to center. That's the catch of the year right there, you'll all be seeing plenty of it through the rest of the day, week, and year. Not sure Willie Mayes or Jim Edmonds could have caught that ball. Wow
 
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Wow it's pathetic I had to sweat out that best bet victory, it was 1-1 in the 9th and I could not have been anymore 100-percent right! The bullpen bullshit just doesn't stop but thankfully I was able to hold on. Anyway, final 7 o'clock games...

Bumgarner vs Ross UNDER 7 - $33 for $32
 
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Well, of course, that Bumgarner vs Ross was plagued by a little unpredictable BS, as the A's committed FOUR errors (And the game's not even over yet), leading to multiple runs, although Bumgarner didn't pitch as well as I thought for San Fran so that one was really up in the air. Smaller bet nonetheless. Anyway, the two final games tonight are on my card for tonight, as I try to end it with a victorious statement...

Hernandez vs Marquis UNDER 6.5 - $46 for $40
Maholm vs Kennedy OVER 9 - $46 for $40
 
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It's the last interleague weekend so I might as well put a bit more on those games. Adding another $12 for $10 on the Hernandez vs Marquis under and another $11 for $10 on the Maholm vs Kennedy over. I expect myself to fare muchhh better than last Saturday night when I was way off on that Humber vs Billingsley under on MLB Network. These two games tonight are on MLB Network as well and I felt much more locked in when approaching them. GL to those who tail me.
 
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There it is, Cat getting in his groove with this 21-11-2 run. Looking forward to my over/under routine in a bit
 

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