Betting CFB's big games of the year
Chad Millman
ESPN INSIDER
The phrase "Games of the Year" screams, "I'm special." You know you're in for a treat, such as when Julia Dale sings the national anthem before a Miami Heat game. (By the way, she can make a note last. The total on her time to sing can't be high enough).
In Vegas, Games of the Year means a bookmaker is showing some stones. It means that, in June, someone is posting numbers on games, in this case college football, that he/she feels so good about that it doesn't matter there are three months before the season starts. Freshmen haven't been graded and inevitable injuries haven't taken place, but you can get a line on Michigan-Ohio State on Nov. 24 and Army-Navy on Dec. 3.
<offer>For the past decade, the Golden Nugget has posted its Games of the Year long before anyone else. It had become a tradition, with wiseguys lugging themselves downtown -- this is old school, Fremont Street Vegas -- where the sidewalks are thinner and so are the crowds. It's too bad, by the way, that more tourists don't take a trip into the real Las Vegas. I once stayed at the Nugget for 10 days when I was reporting "The Odds" many moons ago.
Plenty of nights, I ended up spending too much of my too little book advance on dinner at Hugo's in the Four Queens hotel with whomever I could persuade to tell me a story. One of the best meals I ever had in Vegas was toward the end of my reporting when Alan Boston treated me and Jimmy Vaccaro to Hugo's. I think they just stopped bringing out the food yesterday. It was full-on hedonism, like a mafia Don's last meal before prison.
Most years, the Nugget puts its numbers up at 10 a.m. Vegas time, and there is no warning about what the games will be. Wiseguys show up with their home-brewed formulas, notes and calculators. They grab betting sheets, do some quick math on the matchups, comparing their ratings to the lines posted, and queue up. Each guy gets three cracks once it is his turn, and then it's back to the end of the line. There is a strategy to choosing which games you tap every time your turn comes back around.
"You are looking for key numbers to play," says Vegas vet Bryan Leonard, "but you are also trying to anticipate what games other people will play because the answer will impact who you bet and when."
Leonard has an intricate home-and-away rating system for every team based on in-conference results over a three-year period.
"I don't count out-of-conference games," says Leonard. "The factors are too inconsistent."
He also makes lines for most of the games he expects the Nugget to be posting, which are generally the marquee matchups plus some UNLV games to keep the locals happy.
This year, Leonard and his fellow handicappers received a gift: The Nugget leaked the games it was posting to a couple of websites, Covers and Pregame, so bettors had a head start by the time they got to the counter.
"Almost immediately I knew I wanted to bet Ohio State plus-3 against Michigan," Leonard says. "It was a key number, and I knew this was one that would not last."
He was right. As of Thursday, the number had moved four points and was Ohio State minus-1.
Despite the games being picked over like a Hugo's steak, Leonard still sees plenty of opportunities. These lines are available in a few spots online:
Texas Longhorns minus-6.5 over West Virginia Mountaineers: "This is one that opened at 4, and I still like if you can get it at a touchdown or less. I think Texas will be one of the most improved teams. Meanwhile, schools that move up in class in a conference tend to struggle on the road. It happened to Utah last season."
Pittsburgh Panthers plus-3 versus Cincinnati Bearcats: "It opened at 5; I bet it at 4. I am not really impressed with Cincy, which has been underperforming at home the past three years. And Pitt can play well on the road. I still like it at 3, but I wouldn't play it if it went lower than that."
Arkansas Razorbacks plus-6.5 versus Alabama Crimson Tide: "I am not playing this yet. When I look at my home/road ratings, I grade Bama as a plus-team on the road, but Arkansas gets one of my highest grades as a home team. They have a huge home-field advantage. I like it at 6.5, but I think I can catch 7, so I am going to wait."
This was a common theme in our conversation: Keep an eye out for Bama games, which a lot of wiseguys felt the bookmakers overvalued.
"Alabama-Tennessee moved from 17 down to 13.5," Leonard says. "Bama opened minus-12 against Michigan. I made the game 8, and it is now down to 10."
Bama, overrated. That's what makes the Games of the Year so special.
</offer>
Chad Millman
ESPN INSIDER
The phrase "Games of the Year" screams, "I'm special." You know you're in for a treat, such as when Julia Dale sings the national anthem before a Miami Heat game. (By the way, she can make a note last. The total on her time to sing can't be high enough).
In Vegas, Games of the Year means a bookmaker is showing some stones. It means that, in June, someone is posting numbers on games, in this case college football, that he/she feels so good about that it doesn't matter there are three months before the season starts. Freshmen haven't been graded and inevitable injuries haven't taken place, but you can get a line on Michigan-Ohio State on Nov. 24 and Army-Navy on Dec. 3.
<offer>For the past decade, the Golden Nugget has posted its Games of the Year long before anyone else. It had become a tradition, with wiseguys lugging themselves downtown -- this is old school, Fremont Street Vegas -- where the sidewalks are thinner and so are the crowds. It's too bad, by the way, that more tourists don't take a trip into the real Las Vegas. I once stayed at the Nugget for 10 days when I was reporting "The Odds" many moons ago.
Plenty of nights, I ended up spending too much of my too little book advance on dinner at Hugo's in the Four Queens hotel with whomever I could persuade to tell me a story. One of the best meals I ever had in Vegas was toward the end of my reporting when Alan Boston treated me and Jimmy Vaccaro to Hugo's. I think they just stopped bringing out the food yesterday. It was full-on hedonism, like a mafia Don's last meal before prison.
Most years, the Nugget puts its numbers up at 10 a.m. Vegas time, and there is no warning about what the games will be. Wiseguys show up with their home-brewed formulas, notes and calculators. They grab betting sheets, do some quick math on the matchups, comparing their ratings to the lines posted, and queue up. Each guy gets three cracks once it is his turn, and then it's back to the end of the line. There is a strategy to choosing which games you tap every time your turn comes back around.
"You are looking for key numbers to play," says Vegas vet Bryan Leonard, "but you are also trying to anticipate what games other people will play because the answer will impact who you bet and when."
Leonard has an intricate home-and-away rating system for every team based on in-conference results over a three-year period.
"I don't count out-of-conference games," says Leonard. "The factors are too inconsistent."
He also makes lines for most of the games he expects the Nugget to be posting, which are generally the marquee matchups plus some UNLV games to keep the locals happy.
This year, Leonard and his fellow handicappers received a gift: The Nugget leaked the games it was posting to a couple of websites, Covers and Pregame, so bettors had a head start by the time they got to the counter.
"Almost immediately I knew I wanted to bet Ohio State plus-3 against Michigan," Leonard says. "It was a key number, and I knew this was one that would not last."
He was right. As of Thursday, the number had moved four points and was Ohio State minus-1.
Despite the games being picked over like a Hugo's steak, Leonard still sees plenty of opportunities. These lines are available in a few spots online:
Texas Longhorns minus-6.5 over West Virginia Mountaineers: "This is one that opened at 4, and I still like if you can get it at a touchdown or less. I think Texas will be one of the most improved teams. Meanwhile, schools that move up in class in a conference tend to struggle on the road. It happened to Utah last season."
Pittsburgh Panthers plus-3 versus Cincinnati Bearcats: "It opened at 5; I bet it at 4. I am not really impressed with Cincy, which has been underperforming at home the past three years. And Pitt can play well on the road. I still like it at 3, but I wouldn't play it if it went lower than that."
Arkansas Razorbacks plus-6.5 versus Alabama Crimson Tide: "I am not playing this yet. When I look at my home/road ratings, I grade Bama as a plus-team on the road, but Arkansas gets one of my highest grades as a home team. They have a huge home-field advantage. I like it at 6.5, but I think I can catch 7, so I am going to wait."
This was a common theme in our conversation: Keep an eye out for Bama games, which a lot of wiseguys felt the bookmakers overvalued.
"Alabama-Tennessee moved from 17 down to 13.5," Leonard says. "Bama opened minus-12 against Michigan. I made the game 8, and it is now down to 10."
Bama, overrated. That's what makes the Games of the Year so special.
</offer>
