The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - June 24, 2012 - YTD: 191-184-18

2012 MLB O/U Record: 191-184-18, -$1,210 (Been making bigger bets this year, with countless bad bullpen breaks, obviously)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104

Not slowing down whatsoever, as last night’s 3-1 performance (Including winning all three of my biggest bets) extended my current run to 21-11-2 over the past week-and-change. Actually, I am going to slow down a bit - just for today - as Sundays historically have simply been a laid-back kind of day for me. I especially need that on this very Sunday, as for those who aren’t aware, I do my over/under routine for hours literally every single night (Before doing more over/under studying the nextday for several more hours), but I got home pretty late last night, and was a combination of tipsy and tired, which significantly took away from my focus. Thus, why force several bets today when I knew I wasn’t properly 110-percent into my mindset like I usually am? When you do this stuff every day, you have to recognize the few days where you’re not as into it, and this final Sunday in June certainly qualifies as such. There’s no shame in conceding a few days to The Book Man when you do this every single day for six-plus months. As a result, only one or two games I’m taking from today’s slate (With less analysis, by the way. These type of days are the closest things I have to a day off), although that could change as the day rolls on…


David Price vs Cole Hamels UNDER 7.5 -$20 for $15
Very peculiar move on the part of the linesmakers to list this one at 7.5, as it is a delightful pitching matchup between two premier hurlers in a National League ballpark. For the most part, both studs featured in this one have been their usual excellent selves, but the most striking thing concerning each pitcher here is the fact that they both enter this contest with significant streaks being in overs. Hamels’ last five starts have all gone over, although not particularly because of him, while Price has been involved in three straight such outcomes. That said, while my “feel” wasn’t completely into this one, which is why it’s a small bet, I’ll rely on the general consensus that both pitchers are capable of dominating on any given day, as well as the vastly underrated Law of Averages, which should never be a main reason to take a bet, but I look at it as a little bit of icing on top. Plus, it’s a generous extra half-run we’re being offered. 5-2 can be very possible.


**Will Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**

Also adding...

Derek Lowe vs JA Happ UNDER 9 - $18 for $15
Can't believe the line for this one opened up at 9. In other words, Vegas is saying that the quality of this pitching matchup is the exact same as yesterday's Jeanmar Gomez vs Dallas Keuchel affair, which is pretty absurd, since it had the same line. As much as I've loved Gomez since 2010, he's not close to Derek Lowe's level, while Keuchel, despite displaying some very, very impressive potential in the early goings of his big league career, is not yet at the stature of JA Happ. And yes, I know there is seemingly a lovefest almost every five days for Happ in my articles, but he deserves it. While there is some bias involved (Remember that Happ is my third favorite pitcher in all of baseball behind Bud Norris and James McDonald), and my record with Happ last year was under .500, I think it's justified in this one. Happ has some newfound momentum, as I wrote about beforehand, coming off a successful last start on Monday in defeating the Royals, so I think that's something he builds off of and is able to put together consecutive quality starts. Meanwhile, I've been hating on Derek Lowe all year and calling for his demise since his outstanding start (It was a MIRACLE how well he was doing, given all the baserunners he was yielding the few strikeouts he was recording), and now that it's happened (ERA has soared from 2.05 in mid-May to 4.30, where it stands now), I'm going to backtrack and say he'll turn it around, at least for one start. Both guys have numbers that are well below their expectations so I believe this is a spot for each of them (Lowe better in NL parks; Happ better home at Minute Maid Park) where they'll progress in that right direction. Even at 8.5, the under is worth a bite.

Now that's the JA Happ I became attached to. Another good day today, extensive hot run continues...

Nice day Cat. Since you are on intent on varying your wager amounts....why not bet more when you are on a hot run. Two 15$ winners isnt gonna but a dent on the amount your down.

moocow said:

Nice day Cat. Since you are on intent on varying your wager amounts....why not bet more when you are on a hot run. Two 15$ winners isnt gonna but a dent on the amount your down.

Click to expand...

I'm going to start betting in higher amounts again, although compared to last year, I'm still making larger wages (Ex. I only made a handful of $100 bets all of last year. This year, I usually have a few of them per week). I think a main reason for the success I had last year was BECAUSE of making smaller bets, as I wasn't really thinking about the money.

I've still been making larger plays this year, but the problem is, with me at least (Since I put so much emphasis on mindset and mentality), is that if I lose a big bet thanks to bullshit I can't control (Ex. Losing a $170 bet on an under 7.5 that was 4-0 in the bottom of the 8th with two outs because of a Mike Nickeas grand slam that was his first HR of the year and second of his career - while he was in a 1-for-22 slump, AND MLB Network even did a piece on the homerun, showing how it would not have went out at Citi Field last year with the walls still moved back) that the effects of it can REALLY get to me mentally, and thus, it could easily snowball and make me a wreck in the days proceeding it. In other words, if I'm not having fun with this, it becomes muchhh, much harder to be successful consistently. Remember also, my only two $200+ bets this year were back in April (Matusz vs Drabek under, Hendriks vs Moore under) and were well on pace (2-1 and 1-0, each in the 6th), so I wasn't necessarily wrong on those games, but the fact that the bullpen blew each one in the fashion that it did (Ex. Kevin Gregg appearing before the 7th inning for the first time since 2007; ended up giving 7 runs in the inning. Come onnn) took its toll on me mentally.

I'm gradually getting back to that level, though. If this continues, I'll get back to making those more frequent $100-200$+ bets, as I'm becoming more comfortable again. It's a whole process, each day is its own identity. As for today, though, the reason I made such small bets was because Saturday night coming home from my night out, I wasn't fully into my precise and extensive MLB Over/Unders routine, and therefore, I did not want to risk losing a decent amount from games I didn't have my usual confidence in. But like I said, that sense of comfort has been restored, and as long as I remain on the wagon like I am right now, countless big over/unders are on the horizon. The important thing for me is just to have fun with it, continue to take everything in stride, and not think about the money (Remember, I'm only a year removed from college so it's not like I have a large bankroll). It's a mentality I recommend for all gamblers.