2012 MLB O/U Record: 193-184-18, -$1,180 (Been making bigger bets this year, with countless bad bullpen breaks, obviously)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Another nice day yesterday, going 2-0, which makes me 23-11-2 over the past week-and-change, but instead of getting caught up in that, like a lot of people unfortunately do when they’re on a run, I’m just moving along with the same mindset and mentality that sprung this in the first place, and hoping it can continue and start getting me to that special place I was in last year. That being said, let’s move on to tonight’s card…
Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds (Best Bet) - $66 for $55
Yovani Gallardo vs Mat Latos
UNDER 8.5/9 ($24 for $20 on U8.5, $42 for $35 on U9)
Okay, this is a tricky bet right here, but one I’m willing to label today’s best bet. Mat Latos, as I’ve written about before, has always been one of my favorite pitchers since 2009 - he was an unders machine in the years leading up to this one - but coming into 2012, I just did not have good vibes concerning his performance in his first year with his new team. After all, he’s a fly-ball pitcher, and the reason he was able to get away with that in San Diego is because of Petco Park’s unique pitcher-friendly dimensions, and the damage against him would usually be absolutely limited with his ability to strike out batters frequently when not serving up said fly balls. But, moving to a hitter’s park like Great American Ballpark where homeruns come in bunches, Latos was inevitably in for some sort of downfall, especially combined with the fact that he is a very mentally-oriented pitcher (Letting his emotions get the best of him more than most pitchers), and since he even admitted that he was feeling pressure from being traded to the Reds for multiple guys, not to mention being expected to be a cornerstone of their rotation and win right away, well, like I said, it was inevitable that his numbers sharply decline. That has been the exact case, as Latos has experienced unusual-Latos numbers (5.20 ERA, 1.41 WHIP), and as a result, a lot of his overs have been hitting, like last Monday night’s affair against Justin Masterson in Cleveland that won in the third or fourth inning. Interestingly, Latos has actually put up much better numbers at home (3.91 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, .253 BAA) than on the road (7.45 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, .306 BAA), so I think that’s a trend that can continue, at least for this start. I think Latos is at the point in the season where enough is enough, his decline has happened, and that should actually finally start to relieve him of some pressure he’s admittedly been experiencing all year. He still flashes his talent that was well on display in San Diego (70:26 K:BB ratio in 79 IP), so with his mindset possibly being more steady now, that could allow him to get back to what made him so successful in the first place - pitching without much concern, as he usually was doing in pressure-free San Diego.
Luckily, Yovani Gallardo does not have as many variables to worry about as the opposing Latos does, but that doesn’t mean we’re in the clear. In fact, Gallardo has been less effective on the road (4.69 ERA, 1.59 WHIP), but I believe that’s not a glowing trend that will continue to shine, as it was never evident in years’ past. Furthermore, Gallardo is in a fine groove right now, which he must especially appreciate after the disastrous start he got out to in 2012 (He was 1-2 with a 6.80 ERA entering May), as he’s surrendered three runs or less in NINE of the ten starts since, six of those being two runs or less. His strikeout numbers are also there, as he has posted an impressive 90 punch-outs in 89 innings. Perhaps most importantly, the Brewers’ ace has a good track record versus the division-rival Reds; he had one start against them already, in which he fired 6 quality innings while striking out eight and only yielding two runs and four hits. He was good against them in 2011 as well, and since that Reds lineup is so similar, it’s ap attern we can continue to follow as long as Gallardo maintains his confidence against Cincinnati.
San Digo Padres @ Houston Astros - $44 for $40
Ross Ohlendorf vs Wandy Rodriguez
UNDER 8.5
There’s just something about this Padres/Astros series in Houston that sticks out to me every year. And by “every year,” I really mean “these last two years,” as I distinctly remember sweeping this same three-game get-together at Minute Maid Park in mid-April last season. Now they’re about meet in Houston once again, and while this isn’t Dustin Moseley vs Bud Norris (Game No. 1 of their series last year, an under 8.5 that I won big on), it can still be similar with this Ross Ohlendorf vs Wandy Rodriguez matchup. Let’s begin with Ohlendorf, the Princeton grad who has returned to starting for a big-league club after somewhat sizzling out last year in Pittsburgh. This is his second start with the Friars, and while I wrote about in great detail before his first one how he deserved another chance in The Show, he didn’t exactly make me look good, lasting 4.2 IP in that outing against Oakland, giving up three runs and five hits - although he was excellent for the first three innings. Since he’s one of the smartest pitchers out there, I believe Ohlendorf will make whatever necessary adjustments to ensure he has a longer and more productive outing, especially since he’s had success at this level, and that experience should help him make the correct changes. I continue to rightfully endorse Ohlendorf’s second opportunity so hopefully he rewards us in this one.
Wandy Rodriguez often rewards people who take his unders, especially at home, where’s been more than a full run better thanon the road, a trend that has continued this year and has been prevalent throughout his lengthy career. However, let me just start with the one worrisome thing concerning Wandy Rodriguez games: His name is constantly being mentioned in trade talks. Is it on his mind? Absolutely. How do I know for sure? Well, aside from it being human nature, which no one can escape, he showed it was on his mind last year, when he had the worst month of his 2011 season in July (1-3, 4.94 ERA, 1.32 WHIP). Luckily for us as it pertains to this specificgame, it’s not July yet, and last year, Wandy actually pumped out a tremendous seven-shutout inning performance against the Rangers in his last start in June - at home in Minute Maid Park. He’s home again tonight for his last June start, let’s hope the Wandy Rodriguez home unders ship is still in station, or at least for one more start, before potentially sailing off throughout July, just like last year.
Other 6/25 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Tom Milone vs Erasmo Ramirez OVER 7 -$29 for $25 (It’s been well-documented that Milone is much better at home than on the road, which is where he’ll be tonight. The most important thing, though,is that this is a game featuring Erasmo Ramirez, who is yet to have a good start since being called up to replace the much, much, much superior Blake Beavan. I say Ramirez’ struggles continue in this one)
Nathan Eovaldi vs Barry Zito UNDER 7.5 -$23 for $20 (Nathan Eovaldi just continues to impress, just like he did in mostof his handful of starts last year so it’s NO coincidence. However, Barry Zito has the ability to ruin any under, aside from his ability to single-handedly win an under. In other words, he’s too much of a mixed bag to make this a big bet)
Stephen Strasburg vs Jeff Francis UNDER 10- $17 for $17 (Let’s just put it this way: Even if this game was in my backyard, any under with a line that high is always a good bet as long as Stephen Strasburg is apart of it. Jeff Francis, despite my notable struggles with him last year, is someone I’ve had a really good grasp on since returning to Colorado, as I’m 2-0 in his games in 2012, including that under in his last one in Philly that was my daily best bet. I think he can continue solidly with this new momentum, since he’s been successful before)
**May Add More Over/Under(s) ThroughoutDay Leading Up To Gametime**
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Another nice day yesterday, going 2-0, which makes me 23-11-2 over the past week-and-change, but instead of getting caught up in that, like a lot of people unfortunately do when they’re on a run, I’m just moving along with the same mindset and mentality that sprung this in the first place, and hoping it can continue and start getting me to that special place I was in last year. That being said, let’s move on to tonight’s card…
Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds (Best Bet) - $66 for $55
Yovani Gallardo vs Mat Latos
UNDER 8.5/9 ($24 for $20 on U8.5, $42 for $35 on U9)
Okay, this is a tricky bet right here, but one I’m willing to label today’s best bet. Mat Latos, as I’ve written about before, has always been one of my favorite pitchers since 2009 - he was an unders machine in the years leading up to this one - but coming into 2012, I just did not have good vibes concerning his performance in his first year with his new team. After all, he’s a fly-ball pitcher, and the reason he was able to get away with that in San Diego is because of Petco Park’s unique pitcher-friendly dimensions, and the damage against him would usually be absolutely limited with his ability to strike out batters frequently when not serving up said fly balls. But, moving to a hitter’s park like Great American Ballpark where homeruns come in bunches, Latos was inevitably in for some sort of downfall, especially combined with the fact that he is a very mentally-oriented pitcher (Letting his emotions get the best of him more than most pitchers), and since he even admitted that he was feeling pressure from being traded to the Reds for multiple guys, not to mention being expected to be a cornerstone of their rotation and win right away, well, like I said, it was inevitable that his numbers sharply decline. That has been the exact case, as Latos has experienced unusual-Latos numbers (5.20 ERA, 1.41 WHIP), and as a result, a lot of his overs have been hitting, like last Monday night’s affair against Justin Masterson in Cleveland that won in the third or fourth inning. Interestingly, Latos has actually put up much better numbers at home (3.91 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, .253 BAA) than on the road (7.45 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, .306 BAA), so I think that’s a trend that can continue, at least for this start. I think Latos is at the point in the season where enough is enough, his decline has happened, and that should actually finally start to relieve him of some pressure he’s admittedly been experiencing all year. He still flashes his talent that was well on display in San Diego (70:26 K:BB ratio in 79 IP), so with his mindset possibly being more steady now, that could allow him to get back to what made him so successful in the first place - pitching without much concern, as he usually was doing in pressure-free San Diego.
Luckily, Yovani Gallardo does not have as many variables to worry about as the opposing Latos does, but that doesn’t mean we’re in the clear. In fact, Gallardo has been less effective on the road (4.69 ERA, 1.59 WHIP), but I believe that’s not a glowing trend that will continue to shine, as it was never evident in years’ past. Furthermore, Gallardo is in a fine groove right now, which he must especially appreciate after the disastrous start he got out to in 2012 (He was 1-2 with a 6.80 ERA entering May), as he’s surrendered three runs or less in NINE of the ten starts since, six of those being two runs or less. His strikeout numbers are also there, as he has posted an impressive 90 punch-outs in 89 innings. Perhaps most importantly, the Brewers’ ace has a good track record versus the division-rival Reds; he had one start against them already, in which he fired 6 quality innings while striking out eight and only yielding two runs and four hits. He was good against them in 2011 as well, and since that Reds lineup is so similar, it’s ap attern we can continue to follow as long as Gallardo maintains his confidence against Cincinnati.
San Digo Padres @ Houston Astros - $44 for $40
Ross Ohlendorf vs Wandy Rodriguez
UNDER 8.5
There’s just something about this Padres/Astros series in Houston that sticks out to me every year. And by “every year,” I really mean “these last two years,” as I distinctly remember sweeping this same three-game get-together at Minute Maid Park in mid-April last season. Now they’re about meet in Houston once again, and while this isn’t Dustin Moseley vs Bud Norris (Game No. 1 of their series last year, an under 8.5 that I won big on), it can still be similar with this Ross Ohlendorf vs Wandy Rodriguez matchup. Let’s begin with Ohlendorf, the Princeton grad who has returned to starting for a big-league club after somewhat sizzling out last year in Pittsburgh. This is his second start with the Friars, and while I wrote about in great detail before his first one how he deserved another chance in The Show, he didn’t exactly make me look good, lasting 4.2 IP in that outing against Oakland, giving up three runs and five hits - although he was excellent for the first three innings. Since he’s one of the smartest pitchers out there, I believe Ohlendorf will make whatever necessary adjustments to ensure he has a longer and more productive outing, especially since he’s had success at this level, and that experience should help him make the correct changes. I continue to rightfully endorse Ohlendorf’s second opportunity so hopefully he rewards us in this one.
Wandy Rodriguez often rewards people who take his unders, especially at home, where’s been more than a full run better thanon the road, a trend that has continued this year and has been prevalent throughout his lengthy career. However, let me just start with the one worrisome thing concerning Wandy Rodriguez games: His name is constantly being mentioned in trade talks. Is it on his mind? Absolutely. How do I know for sure? Well, aside from it being human nature, which no one can escape, he showed it was on his mind last year, when he had the worst month of his 2011 season in July (1-3, 4.94 ERA, 1.32 WHIP). Luckily for us as it pertains to this specificgame, it’s not July yet, and last year, Wandy actually pumped out a tremendous seven-shutout inning performance against the Rangers in his last start in June - at home in Minute Maid Park. He’s home again tonight for his last June start, let’s hope the Wandy Rodriguez home unders ship is still in station, or at least for one more start, before potentially sailing off throughout July, just like last year.
Other 6/25 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Tom Milone vs Erasmo Ramirez OVER 7 -$29 for $25 (It’s been well-documented that Milone is much better at home than on the road, which is where he’ll be tonight. The most important thing, though,is that this is a game featuring Erasmo Ramirez, who is yet to have a good start since being called up to replace the much, much, much superior Blake Beavan. I say Ramirez’ struggles continue in this one)
Nathan Eovaldi vs Barry Zito UNDER 7.5 -$23 for $20 (Nathan Eovaldi just continues to impress, just like he did in mostof his handful of starts last year so it’s NO coincidence. However, Barry Zito has the ability to ruin any under, aside from his ability to single-handedly win an under. In other words, he’s too much of a mixed bag to make this a big bet)
Stephen Strasburg vs Jeff Francis UNDER 10- $17 for $17 (Let’s just put it this way: Even if this game was in my backyard, any under with a line that high is always a good bet as long as Stephen Strasburg is apart of it. Jeff Francis, despite my notable struggles with him last year, is someone I’ve had a really good grasp on since returning to Colorado, as I’m 2-0 in his games in 2012, including that under in his last one in Philly that was my daily best bet. I think he can continue solidly with this new momentum, since he’s been successful before)
**May Add More Over/Under(s) ThroughoutDay Leading Up To Gametime**
