Tuesday: Hot one in Texas YTD: 176-151, + 48.2 units

Monday: 5-4, + 1.8 units

All of the following 3 are not worth 2 units, but are better than one unit plays. I'm on them all for one unit on the large side.

Atlanta/ Arizona: over 8. Arizona, I think, will continue hitting. They obviously will not be smoking it like they did at home, but other than Tim Hudson's shutout against the nearly minor league team Miami, he is good for 3-4 runs and doesn't usually go far into games. The D-Backs could be the hottest hitting team in baseball, and if they hit well in Atlanta, watch out. Daniel Hudson might be still having shoulder issues. Since back from the DL he has gotten bombed by Oakland and Seattle, giving up 20 runs in 25.2 IPs. Uncharacteristically, he has also been teed up for way more HRs than usual. Arizona's BP is an adventure, and Atlanta's is only middle of the pack. Atlanta has finally gotten healthy and could start breaking out.

Texas.-1. Darvish has found his control in the last 2 games and what a difference it has made. I'm not convinced the Tigers 8 run outburst Monday means they are out of their slump. Darvish is good enough to put them back in it. In the past week, much lesser pitchers have. The guys around Cabrera and Fielder have not delivered the hits when needed, though they get hits when no one is on base. Smyly has been pretty good, but is coming off the DL and lefties are what Texas feeds off of. Even Hamilton hits them well. The Texas heat will likely get to Detroit more than the Rangers, whom have gotten used to dealing with it. Second day, a little harder for the visiting team.

St. Louis: You might want to fade this one. My bias against the Marlins is obvious. Having their bullpen blow it Monday night might have exposed one of their last strengths (according to the Marlins anyways). Zambrano was getting shelled until his decent outing in Boston. St. Louis is hitting so well, and so late in games, I don't see Zambrano stopping them now. Lohse's control and ability to keep the ball out of the seats has made him the Cards most dependable starter. Also, after the Marlins do have a good hitting game, like Monday, they usually follow it up with zippo. They also struggle more vs. righties. I also think they have the kind of players and management that doesn't handle losing well. Ozzie makes snide comments in the press(like always), making the players feel like he doesn't trust them to win. Of course, it's a self-fulfilling prophecy. Once again I'll take the surging team against the team that knows they can lose in any way possible. ML.

St. Louis TT also a possibility.

Unbelievable, but Kip Wells is back. Here was a guy who couldn't get a job in the independent league, sucked in AAA recently, and now is pitching in Houston tomorrow. TT for Astros. One unit- Hopefully 5 or less.

So 1.5 unit plays on all 3?

Thanks for a PROFITABLE night on Monday! Great way to start the week.

Rangers thread Jack. I watch a lot of Ranger baseball, and I'm not trying to talk you out of your Rangers bet, as I think if Yu is right he is dominant , and I don't know much about the slump the Detroit hitters are in, and sure don't know enough about Smyly, but I can tell you that the Rangers are in a slump of their own and going to be overvalued for a while if they stay in it. Their win streak was smoke and mirrors. They got out hit in several of those wins and overall really don't look good lately. They really aren't that great against lefties. They made Outman look like Warren Spahn. I know their record is pretty good, but seems like every lefty they've faced recently has been a scrub. Out of the guys that kill lefties (Kinsler, Andrus, Napoli, Cruz, and Young), Young and Kinsler aren't seeing the ball well now, and Napoli might as well just close his eyes as he's that terrible right now. Andrus is going strong, and Cruz has definitley come around. My guess is Gentry isn't going to be able to come back for a while (even if he does he won't be right, he was swinging with his right foot off the ground after he hurt his ankle).

So I'm interested to see who they roll out there tomorrow, but Kinsler, not hitting. Andrus is Hitting. Josh not seeing it rell well and can't hit lefties worth a crap if they have a decent breaking ball (missed a breaking ball by Outman the other day be 3 1/2 feet), Beltre hitting pretty well but not that good against lefties with a slider, Young in a slump, Cruz should rake, Napoli and Torrealba are sucking, Gentry is hurt, Leonys Martin can't hit lefties from what I've seen, Murphy can't hit lefties, and Snyder can hit, but sucks ass in right field. As for the pitchers, Harrison hurt his back (probably okay though) last outing. When Holland comes back until I see him do something great he is a no bet as he had the worst rag arm I've seen in years. If history tells us anything, Colby is probably in the middle of one of his 3 game slumps, Feldman is a gas can lately, Grimm found out that the Tigers are not the Astros, and while Oswalt did look good I wouldn't expect 8 innings and 1 run very often. His stuff was pretty good but not great, so if he regresses even a bit he'll get hit pretty hard.

So this week, the only guy I'd consider backing is Yu and unless things change he and Harrison are probably the only two I'd feel good about going forward for a while.

In the current state of affairs I'd bet them against a righty long before I would against a lefty, and looking to bet against them more than on them coming up. If the bats start clicking, then who knows, the overs will likely be the bet when Yu and Harry aren't on the bump.

Sorry for the rambling war and peace, but just don't want people to see the Rangers recent record and think they are locked in. Good luck with the bet tonight.

Thanks for the input, Yak.

It's always good to hear "expert" opinions from people close to the program. I'm still betting the Rangers tonight, but keeping it small.

Thanks from me too. I need more input like this. It's true that the Rangers, like other perennial favorites, are overvalued. They have issues in their lineup and their pitching staff. Their vs. lefty pitching stats must be mostly from early in the season.

Houston TT over 4.5. 2 units. 4.5 is a great number when Kip Wells is pitching. He won't go that far into the game, and the Padres middle relief is a bunch of guys with ERAs around 4. Luebke, Stauffer, Wieland, Moseley, Stults, and now Bass. These are all the Padres starters that went to the DL this year. With a losing club, why go to a young stud, who might get permanently scarred from playing for the Padres at this point. Kip Wells will do. He has mostly been out of baseball the past few years, and in is recent AAA stint, has regressed. In his last 15 IPs, 25 hits, 17 runs, 15 BBs, and only 7 Ks. Granted, the PCL is tough on pitchers, but 15 walks and 7 Ks, and these ugly stats can't all be the league. The Astros also have enough good bats to do some damage. Hopefully they'll load up with lefties because Kip is much worse against them. If I lose this, I'm doubling up on his next start. We'll call it the Kip Wells Chase System. Remember this game is not in Petco.

One unit on the over 5 for first 5 innings in Astros / SD games. This is a bet that says Jordan Lyles adds to the scoring. The Padres hit better away from Petco (who doesn't). Lyles is another pitcher with no real out pitch.

Varkey- More like 1.2 or 1.3 units on all three, but for simplicity, I'll keep it at one units for this thread.

Upping the STL ML to 2 units.
Also, STL over 4.5 TT for 1 unit. Under further analysis, the Marlins bullpen and defense have both been in the dumps for June. Considering that Zambrano pitches to contact lately, and will likely not go deep into the game, and the way the Cardinals are hitting, it's worth the one unit investment.

Heath Bell is God awful. If he could save games, Marlins would be right in the division hunt. He's singlehandely cost them 4 or 5 games. It's amazing how Petco can make bad/mediocre pitchers look great. Bell and Latos both were complete frauds. Excuse me for being bitter but I bought season tickets to the Marlins as an investment to sell on stubhub. Made $135 profit on opening day and it's been all downhill since then! Lol

And their set up guys- Cishek, Choate and Mujica have also been awful this past week or so.

Phillies-TT under 4. Haven't taken a TT under in a while, but need to start looking at them. This one makes sense. The Phils have been stifled by good lefties(and Jeff Francis too), and other than Bedard's crappy outing in Baltimore (he hates the attention of being focused on such as returning to his old team. That's also why he probably did poorly in Boston- Too much attention) , he has pitched consistently well. Pirates bullpen is one of the best, and I still feel the Phillies are overvalued. They got to Karstens coming off the DL, big deal. They have faced a lot of crummy pitchers in recent weeks and I think that's why they've scored more runs. Also, a stiff wind blowing in.

o fred said:

And their set up guys- Cishek, Choate and Mujica have also been awful this past week or so.

Phillies-TT under 4. Haven't taken a TT under in a while, but need to start looking at them. This one makes sense. The Phils have been stifled by good lefties(and Jeff Francis too), and other than Bedard's crappy outing in Baltimore (he hates the attention of being focused on such as returning to his old team. That's also why he probably did poorly in Boston- Too much attention) , he has pitched consistently well. Pirates bullpen is one of the best, and I still feel the Phillies are overvalued. They got to Karstens coming off the DL, big deal. They have faced a lot of crummy pitchers in recent weeks and I think that's why they've scored more runs. Also, a stiff wind blowing in.

Click to expand...

How many units on this??

One unit on Phils TT under.

Someone want to tell me why the Dodgers are favored. Kershaw I guess?

AZ/ATL total down to 7.5........interesting! I'll be on all the plays....GL Fred.

TUESDAY BREAKDOWN (as of 5:45pm EST):

Arizona/Atlanta OVER 8.....1 unit (or more)
Texas -1.....1 unit (or more)
Astros TT OVER 4.5.....2 units
1st 5 innings: Padres/Astros OVER 5.....1 unit
Cardinals ML.....2 units
Cardinals TT OVER 4.5.....1 unit
Phillies TT UNDER 4.....1 unit

varkeyboy said:

TUESDAY BREAKDOWN (as of 5:45pm EST):

Arizona/Atlanta OVER 8.....1 unit (or more)
Texas -1.....1 unit (or more)
Astros TT OVER 4.5.....2 units
1st 5 innings: Padres/Astros OVER 5.....1 unit
Cardinals ML.....2 units
Cardinals TT OVER 4.5.....1 unit
Phillies TT UNDER 4.....1 unit

Click to expand...

Thanks Varkeyboy for doing this...very kind.

That's curious about the Atlanta totals. Hopefully it's just a tout who recommended the under, driving it down.

Bol

KC/ Tampa under 9. One unit. Rays swept that DH with the Phils with only 10 hits, then get shutout yesterday. Tampa has a poor hitting history vs. Chen and does not hit lefties well in general. KC's bullpen has come on strong this year. Tampa's BP is better than average. And boy did I underestimate that Archer kid in Washington last week. After the 1st inning jitters, he was impressive. I don't expect he'll have those jitters this game, and KC has never seen his slider before. Neither lineup impresses me that much. KC is known for lots of hits, few walks, but not many runs.

A weird bet I know. I'm thinking I could win them both, but 1-1 would be fine.

SF. ML. One unit-Which pitcher in the majors ALWAYS has a quality start? Ryan Vogelsong. They guy is unbelievable. He seems to adjust to whichever team and batter he is facing, and rarely gives up a big inning. Very rarely. The Giants are also hitting much better than the slumping Dodgers. The Dodgers, I feel, are regressing to their norm. Kershaw has been spotty until his last outing which was strong. These 2 pitchers are pretty even, but I'll take the better hitting team. Also, the Giant fans hate the Dodgers, so this game will have that "good noise" factor working in the Giants favor.
SF/ LAD- under 22.5 H+R+E. one unit. What strikes me about this is that it's only 4 point away from the 26.5 that's posted for the Cubs game, in Wrigley, with Randy Wells and Gee going. Seems like a deal. Both pitchers are low hit per inning pitchers. Also think because we have 2 aces on the mound and they'll try extra hard to be good. Rivalry game- low scoring possibly.