2012 MLB O/U Record: 195-187-18, -$1,204 (Been making bigger bets this year, with countless bad bullpen breaks, obviously)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Disappointing 2-3 day yesterday, although I ended up about even thanks to another victorious best bet, but I was right on four of the six games that I had a vibe on but did not bet on from last night’s slate (I usually make picks on every game), meaning I seemingly went after the wrong set of games, but it happens. As a result, my confidence has not been dented from only my second below-.500 day in the past week-plus. Today looks like it might be a light day, although with one potential stand-out best bet…
**Dollar Amounts To Be Posted Later Leading Up To Gametime**
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies (Best Bet)
Erik Bedard vs Vance Worley
UNDER 7.5
You know what, I’m a little surprised the line for this game is 7.5 and not 7. After all, not only are both guys in a fine groove right now, but also, each individual in this specific pitching matchup has already had a wildly successful start in 2012 against their opponent for tonight. Let’s start with Erik Bedard, who had a magnificent season debut against these same Fightin’ Phils, when he fired seven terrific innings of one-run ball on Opening Day against Roy Halladay, scattering only six hits and striking out four. At this point in time, however, Bedard has displayed a consistent tendency in which he’ll have a great start, and follow it up with a, well, not-so-great start. In fact, he’s alternated such performances over his past six starts - approximately half of his season output - allowing one run in his last start, after giving up seven in the outing before, and so on. However, patterns like that usually don’t continue on for such a significant period of time, so I believe that can come to an end tonight, as he’s coming off an excellent performance in his last game. Bedard has not been good on the road this year (6.27 ERA, 1.67 WHIP), but that’s a trend that has not nearly been as vibrant throughout his career, so I think that’s something that can level off, and we’ll start seeing his road numbers asa whole come back down to earth. The former Orioles’ ace has always been a consistently good pitcher, so it’s about time he strings together consecutive quality starts for the first time since early May. It will also help that the Phillies are in the bottom third of the league against left-handed pitching, registering only a measly .236 batting average with a .294 on-base percentage. Bedard can capitalize on that.
Since coming off the disabled list at the beginning of this month, Vance Worley has been excellent, despite his 0-2 record in that time. He’s been a victim of bad defense (Five unearned runs allowed in his four starts since coming back) and wrong umpire calls (A large reason he only lasted four innings in his first start back versus Clayton Kershaw in that ESPN Monday night game June 4), but even with all of that, Worley has looked like his old potentially dominant self. That sentiment especially rang true in his last outing against the Rockies (My best bet under victory that night against Jeff Francis, remember), in which he posted seven outstanding innings, surrendering just four hits and two runs. In his very first start of the season, Worley dominated the Pirates over six frames, striking out five and giving up just one run and five hits (The under against James McDonald in Pittsburgh was my best bet on that Sunday; got screwed by bullpen BS and I received a “loss” despite being 100-percent right), leading me to believe he can produce that same kind of quality output, knowing he’s contained them before, and especially while he’s in such a good rhythm at the moment. Worley is a guy that runs on confidence; I can tell he’s one of those pitchers that more so takes pride in his work and is rolling when he’s at his best mentally. He’s had three straight starts now where he’s yielded two runs or less, and that’s something I can see continuing while he remains in his confident mindset, especially considering the Pirates struggle mightily against right-handers - they’re last in the National League with a .228 average in that department, and last in all of baseball with an ugly .278 on-base percentage. It’s very difficult to suddenly go against the grain while facing a very good pitcher like Vance Worley.
Other 6/26 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Marco Estrada vs Bronson Arroyo OVER 9
Clayton Kershaw vs Ryan Vogelsong UNDER 6
Daniel Hudson vs Tim Hudson UNDER 8 (Wow, Vegas. Talk about showing no respect to the great Daniel Hudson. I don't care what that ERA says. If you truly know baseball, you know this guy's a gem)
**May Add More Over/Under(s) ThroughoutDay Leading Up To Gametime**
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Disappointing 2-3 day yesterday, although I ended up about even thanks to another victorious best bet, but I was right on four of the six games that I had a vibe on but did not bet on from last night’s slate (I usually make picks on every game), meaning I seemingly went after the wrong set of games, but it happens. As a result, my confidence has not been dented from only my second below-.500 day in the past week-plus. Today looks like it might be a light day, although with one potential stand-out best bet…
**Dollar Amounts To Be Posted Later Leading Up To Gametime**
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies (Best Bet)
Erik Bedard vs Vance Worley
UNDER 7.5
You know what, I’m a little surprised the line for this game is 7.5 and not 7. After all, not only are both guys in a fine groove right now, but also, each individual in this specific pitching matchup has already had a wildly successful start in 2012 against their opponent for tonight. Let’s start with Erik Bedard, who had a magnificent season debut against these same Fightin’ Phils, when he fired seven terrific innings of one-run ball on Opening Day against Roy Halladay, scattering only six hits and striking out four. At this point in time, however, Bedard has displayed a consistent tendency in which he’ll have a great start, and follow it up with a, well, not-so-great start. In fact, he’s alternated such performances over his past six starts - approximately half of his season output - allowing one run in his last start, after giving up seven in the outing before, and so on. However, patterns like that usually don’t continue on for such a significant period of time, so I believe that can come to an end tonight, as he’s coming off an excellent performance in his last game. Bedard has not been good on the road this year (6.27 ERA, 1.67 WHIP), but that’s a trend that has not nearly been as vibrant throughout his career, so I think that’s something that can level off, and we’ll start seeing his road numbers asa whole come back down to earth. The former Orioles’ ace has always been a consistently good pitcher, so it’s about time he strings together consecutive quality starts for the first time since early May. It will also help that the Phillies are in the bottom third of the league against left-handed pitching, registering only a measly .236 batting average with a .294 on-base percentage. Bedard can capitalize on that.
Since coming off the disabled list at the beginning of this month, Vance Worley has been excellent, despite his 0-2 record in that time. He’s been a victim of bad defense (Five unearned runs allowed in his four starts since coming back) and wrong umpire calls (A large reason he only lasted four innings in his first start back versus Clayton Kershaw in that ESPN Monday night game June 4), but even with all of that, Worley has looked like his old potentially dominant self. That sentiment especially rang true in his last outing against the Rockies (My best bet under victory that night against Jeff Francis, remember), in which he posted seven outstanding innings, surrendering just four hits and two runs. In his very first start of the season, Worley dominated the Pirates over six frames, striking out five and giving up just one run and five hits (The under against James McDonald in Pittsburgh was my best bet on that Sunday; got screwed by bullpen BS and I received a “loss” despite being 100-percent right), leading me to believe he can produce that same kind of quality output, knowing he’s contained them before, and especially while he’s in such a good rhythm at the moment. Worley is a guy that runs on confidence; I can tell he’s one of those pitchers that more so takes pride in his work and is rolling when he’s at his best mentally. He’s had three straight starts now where he’s yielded two runs or less, and that’s something I can see continuing while he remains in his confident mindset, especially considering the Pirates struggle mightily against right-handers - they’re last in the National League with a .228 average in that department, and last in all of baseball with an ugly .278 on-base percentage. It’s very difficult to suddenly go against the grain while facing a very good pitcher like Vance Worley.
Other 6/26 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Marco Estrada vs Bronson Arroyo OVER 9
Clayton Kershaw vs Ryan Vogelsong UNDER 6
Daniel Hudson vs Tim Hudson UNDER 8 (Wow, Vegas. Talk about showing no respect to the great Daniel Hudson. I don't care what that ERA says. If you truly know baseball, you know this guy's a gem)
**May Add More Over/Under(s) ThroughoutDay Leading Up To Gametime**