Thursday: Rockies mess revealed YTD: 190-156 + 59.8 units

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Washington -1. 2 units. If Strasburg or Gio were pitching, this would be 3.
The state of the Rockies couldn't be worse right now. They have no starters worth a damn so Wednesday they brought up a kid who clearly was over his head in a park known for scoring. They would have been better off pitching Guthrie or Alex White or even trading for Kip Wells. Now, because their GM is a clown, they have scarred another young prospect on Coors Field.

Basically, the Rockies bullpen is over worked due to the starting pitching and Jim Tracy's ridiculous 4 man rotation(75 pitch limit). It's 100 degrees in Denver and those guys are asked to rescue the worst starting staff in the majors. They do have 3 decent relievers- Roenicke(whom has been getting hit hard the past 2 weeks), and Belisle and Betancourt(with 6 blown saves between them). The rest of the relievers are crap. Tracy is hoping to cobble together a decent start for 4-6 innings by one of his starters, like Francis did Monday, and then get his 3 passable relievers in there to keep the lead protected. Or the Rockies might just score a bunch of runs and win 10-9 or 9-8. The Nats are the worst team for them to play because they have one of the best staffs in the league, including a good BP. So it's unlikely the Rox will outscore this team. How bad is the Rockies staff? The Nats just scored double digits back to back. The last time they did that was………… last year maybe. Suddenly all the Nat hitters are out of their slumps!

The Rockies also have possibly the worst defense in the majors. Cuddyer is a butcher, Pacheco and Nelson are also fairly bad, and even Carlos Gonzalez is playing CF half-assed. That's 3/4 of your infield with a terrible pitcher on the mound, every day! Then there's bland, predictable Jim Tracy. How is this bump on the log going to break them out of it? Davey Johnson, the Nats mgr, provides leadership, spirit and knowledge to keep the Nats winning. Finally, there's the Rockies pitching coach, Bob Apodaca, who jumped ship this week. He resigned- what else could he do? He can't fix this mess. So they brought up the Colorado Springs pitching coach to take over. He's just happy to escape the fires, but with the Rockies staff, he's going from the fire to the frying pan. And his AAA team was below average in team pitching stats down in the minors. Anyways, this is only a 2 because Edwin Jackson could get hit in Coors(not likely), the Rox can still hit, and maybe Josh Outman has the game of his life. After all, the Nats, before this series weren't exactly ripping the ball.
 

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Yankees: 2 units -1
Yankees: 1 unit RL
Yankees: -1/2 first 5 innings. I hope the White Sox enjoyed their slugfest against Nick Blackburn and the other bums the Twins sent in for relief. The Sox were in a bad slump prior to that game, so much so for Konerko, he sat it out. I don't think it's over and if you look at their lineup, they have a number of flaws. Dunn is a strikeout king, Beckham can't live up to his draft stays, and from 3B and catcher they're getting no hitting. Only Rios seems to be hitting now. Nova has been outstanding in his last 4 starts, with a good walk: SO ratio. Now let's talk about the main resin for this bet. Dylan Axelrod barely hits 85 on the gun with his fastball, but sometimes slower. He is basically a slider, fastball pitcher as far as his quality pitches go. A decent AAA pitcher, but dead meat against a lefty leaning lineup that's killing everybody. Axelrod will hang a slider or 2 or 3, misplace his low 80s fastball and we'll see some shots. He also won't last that long so you'll see the so-so Sox middle relief. I also like the Yanks BP, the fact that their home, and won a close game to finish the Indians series. Right now the -1 is about -135, but it might get much worse by tomorrow.
 

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Houston/ SD -under 8.5. One unit. Whoever set this line must not be watching these 2 cream-puffers the last two games. Without Altuve at the top of the lineup, the Astros seem to be stuck in low gear. Both Clayton Richard and Lucas Harrell had their best lines of the year tonight-13 Ks and 8 total hits. The Padres are in one of their hitting funks again. Add the expansive Minute Maid Park to the mix. Keuchel has pitched very well, and had a complete game win vs. Cleveland. The Padres will pitch by relief pitcher, and since Clayton Richards didn't need much tonight, the whole BP is available tomorrow. I also doubt that many of these hitters have seen many of the pitchers, will see tomorrow, before.
 

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Id check that colorado bet. Maybe the over is the best thing here?









ABH2B3BHRRBIBBSOAVGOBPSLGOPS





Tyler Colvin5 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 .200 .167 .200 .367 Michael Cuddyer9 5 0 1 1 6 3 2 .556 .643 1.111 1.754 Dexter Fowler2 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 1.000 1.000 1.000 2.000 Jason Giambi16 5 1 0 1 5 4 2 .313 .450 .563 1.013 Carlos Gonzalez5 3 2 1 0 4 0 0 .600 .600 1.400 2.000 Todd Helton12 5 2 0 0 4 3 1 .417 .533 .583 1.117 Ramon Hernandez7 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 .286 .286 .286 .571 Wil Nieves4 1 1 0 0 1 0 2 .250 .250 .500 .750 Marco Scutaro20 6 0 0 2 5 0 2 .300 .300 .600 .900 Troy Tulowitzki5 4 1 0 0 1 0 0 .800 .800 1.000 1.800 Eric Young Jr.5 1 0 0 0 2 1 1 .200 .333 .200 .533 Totals9035724301112.389.452.6441.09630 rbis in two games, he gets rocked by Colorado. Colorados pitchers are worn out and nats have score 11 and 12 runs last two. Over 11 seems solid here. Colorado is top 5 in every offensive category so see a huge game. No telling who wins this offensive battle but see 14 runs here easy
 

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I considered the over bet. It's a good play anytime in Coors Field. But Tulowtzki won't be playing, Helton and Cuddyer are in slumps, and most of the hitting last night for the Rockies was in garbage time. In a close game the Nats won't be pitching Wang in relief. It's possible that Jackson will be on his game and that Outman will be a little better than usual. He doesn't usually give up bunches of runs until the 4th or 5th inning. Anyways, I'll still consider it more.

Angels/ Toronto: over 9 (-130) one unit for now. Really like this one. Something is really wrong with Dan Haren. In his last 3-5 starts, he has gotten hit hard. Higher pct. of walk and strikeouts, and 27 hits in his last 16.2 IPs. His last stellar start was May 24 against Seattle (in Safeco the Mariners can't hit of course). His velocity is way down from a few years ago and I guess hitters are laying off the cutter or he's hanging it. The Angels meanwhile have been absolutely ripping the ball. 33 hits the last 2 nights, and hitting well before that. They gave Vogelsong and Hammel their worst lines of the year. They also got 3 runs on Cain in 5 IPs (a bad day for him), hit Billingsley and Zito hard, and those games were in pitcher's parks. Brett Cecil has come off the DL and pitched fairly well, but I'm not buying it. One of those games was against Miami (enough said) and the other was vs. Philly before they started hitting. Cecil has given up 2 HRs already and that's his problem. Last year he gave up one HR every 5.6 IPs. His control is so-so, and strikeouts about average. The Angels have hit him throughout his career. Toronto's BP might add to the damage.
 

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Cecil's fastball is now in the mid-high 80s, as compared to previously in the low-mid 90s. I am making this a 2 unit pick.
 

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fred what book do you primarily use that has the -1 lines available?
 

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Fred I think the first five under in that SD/Houston game might be a better way to play that. Cashner isn't stretched out enough to go deep.
 

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Should have listened to Mad Picker. The over is looking good.
Bees- I use 5 Dimes, which has the -1 in the morning. But if you want to put it in the night before, you can combine aRL and ML of equal amounts to get it about the same. This is a good idea if you're worried the line will be worse for your play in the AM.
Maris9- I have a small bet for that one, but I figure the SD bullpen can also keep the score down well enough.
 

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yea i tried to tell you. I found some amazing stats about him at Colorado with nats and arizona. They light him up. Was just trying to share some knowledge on the play and every other play i see something wrong with. I am huge ATL fan so i watch alot of the nl where as you watch alot of the al. Bol on your others and keep up the good work maynne
 

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Nice call MP...Coors Field is simply unreal for overs, especially in hot weather.

Now, Washington is still in this game and can score in bunches if their pitching can get back on track!
 

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yea they have a chance to win still. 3 run game in a scoring field. They were dumb not to take him out after the 2-0 lead with 3 runners on, actually they were dumb to pitch him in the game. I dont get why teams dont hire "betters" lol bc we know so much shit about a game its unreal. I could of shown them these stats and they could of pushed him back one game to pitch against ATL where he has a good shot at a 4-3 type of game, but no let him give up 7 in 3 innings.. good luck on the comeback man
 

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Detroit. ML. one unit. Max Scherzer has settled down in the past month or longer. He's not exactly dependable, but many of the Rays have hit poorly against him. The Rays have been getting a lot from a little all year, but maybe their lack of talent is finally catching up to them. They are going through a tough stretch and that sweep in KC was totally unlike them. In fact, KC rarely wins at home. Shields has not hardly any of those great outings he was known for last year. His placement of his fastball has been off and has given up the long ball (nothing new). Also, many of the Tigers have hit well off of him. I like the top 4 guys in the Tiger lineup much more than the top 4 in the Rays lineup. They have no one like Fielder and Cabrera. The Tiger BP has also come on and is very steady now. The Rays bullpen is regressing, and they might need it as Shields is not going as deep into games this year.
 

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Correction: The Rays middle relievers have pitched poorly, not their back end guys.
 

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Detroit: TT over 3.5 for one unit. Seems like a good number. Considering how mediocre Shields has pitched and that Cabrera has killed him over the years, and other Tigers also hit him well. Considering that Fielder is a lefty vs. righty Shields. I guess this is a hedge bet in case Scherzer blows up and the Tigers lose a higher scoring game.
 

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I'm kicking myself over not jumping on the A's last night when they were a huge + underdog. Now the money has been coming on them all day and the + number is way down. I'm on the A's small, but not a unit.
 

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Final play(probably): Mets. ML for one unit. Everyone is thinking Capuano will win this one against his old team that wouldn't sign him. He probably will pitch well. But the Dodgers hitting now is approaching ridiculous. The whole team has lost confidence. Chris Young seems to always keep his team in the game by keeping the ball down. Not a strike out pitcher, but gets a lot of ground balls. I just also think right now the Mets have a far better hitting attack than the Dodgers. Even the Padres are hitting better than the Dodgers.
 

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I'm kicking myself over not jumping on the A's last night when they were a huge + underdog. Now the money has been coming on them all day and the + number is way down. I'm on the A's small, but not a unit.

Still found +175 on it...enough for a quarter unit "mental health bet". (If it wins and you don't have a dollar on it you could go crazy...lol).

Really unusual that such a public team like TX laying -200 or more on the open and then come down all day to the -160's. You don't see this too often.
 

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Win or lose the Rockies/ Nats game, both bullpens have been great- except for the 9th inning HR to Harper by Betancourt. I have to give the Rockies credit for hanging in there, and the Nats credit for not giving up being down by 7.
 

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Win or lose the Rockies/ Nats game, both bullpens have been great- except for the 9th inning HR to Harper by Betancourt. I have to give the Rockies credit for hanging in there, and the Nats credit for not giving up being down by 7.

Good news for those who got U 57.5 HREs....you won!
 

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