The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - June 28, 2012 - YTD: 197-191-18

2012 MLB O/U Record: 197-191-18, -$1,291 (Been making bigger bets this year, with countless bad bullpen breaks, obviously)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104

Nice 2-1 day yesterday in winning both of my top over/unders, including my continued dominance of the highly underrated Lucas Harrell. Just have to keep on keepin’ on in this Thursday slate...


PittsburghPirates @ Philadelphia Phillies - $39 for $35
AJ Burnett vs Kyle Kendrick
UNDER 8.5

To be honest, I wasn’t expecting a line this high, and surprisingly, it may even go higher right before gametime, as there’s a lot of extra juice on the over. However, I just don’t see it. First, you have AJ Burnett set to deal in today’s afternoon contest, and he’s been featured in unders as much as any pitcher in baseball over the past month-and-change. After all, he’s given up two runs or less in an amazing eight of his past nine outings, and the one where he didn’t, he surrendered just three runs. That being known, it’s obvious Burnett is in a real groove right now, as he continues to live up to my prediction from before the season when I said he would retain some of his old success before he came to New York, where the moronic overreacting fans (Not all of them, some of the smartest fans, too) single-handedly ruined him (Living in NY, I can say that), at least only temporarily. You just can’t teach the talent Burnett has displayed for most of his career and it’s showing again. When he’s mentally locked in, his stuff just takes over opposing batting orders and enables him to cruise in most starts. The only thing I’m worried about, at least concerning Burnett, is that this can be viewed as a higher-pressure situation, which the veteran right-hander obviously does not succeed as much in, as his Pirates are right in the mix for first-place, and in a big finale of a four-gamer with the Phillies in Philadelphia, which is always a tough city to pitch in. Overall, though, I think he’ll be fine. This is vintage AJ Burnett we’ve been witnessing all year long.

Opposing him is the mercurial Kyle Kendrick, who sometimes contributes a solid performance, but a lot of times, he’s on the other end of the spectrum. Lately, especially, Kendrick has been on that wrong end, having given up at least five runs in three of his past four outings. Overall, he sports an ERA in the mid-5’s and a WHIP of 1.58, which does not bode well for any under, let alone in a pitcher’s park like Citizens Bank Park, but while I usually do not have a good vibe for a Kyle Kendrick under, I really feel this one will be different. It’s not like he’s facing a nall-world lineup here today, and when Kendrick is at a point close to rockbottom, he’s shown an ability to turn it around. While he’s not really good, I don’t think he’s as bad as his numbers indicate, as sometimes, a bad slump can kind of take on a life of its own. Kendrick can realize that, and with a somewhat favorable matchup, begin to turn things around, having the luxury of pitching in the National League. I’m going with vibe in that regard, as well as an extra bit of help from the Law of Averages. All three games in this series have seen the over hit so with the aforementioned law, which works more than you think, we could see both offenses come back down to earth, in producing some sort of 6-2/5-1 score on this Thursday afternoon.


Other 6/28 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Dan Haren vs Brett Cecil OVER 9/9.5 (WHY in the world did Vegas set this line at 9.5? There’s no logical explanation, given both quality pitchers involved, other than the fact that Vegas obviously sharest he same view that I do that this one is inexplicably going well over. They just want to protect themselves and/or bait people into the wrong under bet)

Andrew Cashner vs Dallas Keuchel UNDER 8.5 (This one will have a write-up later on today. LOTS of potential in this one with a line that high)

Trevor Bauer vs Jair Jurrjens UNDER 8.5


**Will Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**

**Dollar Amounts for Later Games to Be Posted Leading Up To Gametime**

Just have to keep on keepin’ on in this Thursday slate...

Lol, Life's a garden, dig it

Well, that was a tough loss to swallow in the early afternoon game, as both guys went seven innings, which was especially daring to get out of Kyle Kendrick, but he was absolutely magnificent after that five-run first inning, giving up zero in the proceeding six. It's too bad he had to start it out like that, though. Burnett, as expected, pumped out yet another quality start as he continues his own personal crusade of the National League, but in the end, all it turns out to be is yet another "loss" by a half-run, something that I undoubtedly must lead the entire country in (Seriously, how many over/unders have I lost this year by a half-run? Or even just one run? Certainly the ones I've won by that margin are very miniscule, as most of my wins have been clearly a lot more decisive).

Anyway, here's my action from the 7 o'clock games:

Bauer vs Jurrjens UNDER 8.5 - $33 for $30 (Trevor Bauer is a top prospect, there's no denying that. In fact, he has soared through the minor leagues so quickly with incredible domination of opposing hitters that he's the first high-profile pitcher from the 2011 draft to make his debut. Meanwhile, Jair Jurrjens had a wonderful return start off the DL/minor league stint, and most impressive of all was how he did it in Boston, which is obviously one of the toughest parks to pitch in, let alone with the mental unstability that Jurrjens definitely had after his early season struggles. 8.5 is a fine number to play with for these two pitchers, and in a National League stadium like Turner Field that has a reputation of being more of a pitcher's park)

Haren vs Cecil OVER 9.5 - $26 for $23 (Very few over/unders over the past few years have boggled my mind, which is saying something considering I study this stuff 24/7, every single day during the baseball season, for the past few years. However, this is one of the rare exceptions. Has a linesmaker come out publically and explained why the line is this high for a matchup of this caliber? Do they not think Brett Cecil is a good pitcher at all? Do they not realize Dan Haren is still an upper-tier pitcher? Yes, a lot of runs are scored in Toronto, but there have been far more inferior pitching matchups (Ex. Ones with Jo-Jo Reyes in them last year) that had LOWER lines than this one. It's a real head-scratcher, and a real disappointment, as I had a strong over vibe when I first broke down this matchup - then I saw the line of 9.5 and was angered by this, as I could still be 100-percent right on the starting pitching matchup, yet somehow curiously lose with a 5-4/6-3 outcome. Still worth a bet, though, as my vibe was just too considerable to ignore)

Cashner vs Keuchel UNDER 8.5 will be $46 for $40

Didn't get a chance to do a write-up, although it's my biggest bet of the night, but let me just add some brief insight. Andrew Cashner failed in his first stint as a starter with the Cubs prior to 2012, but after a successful run as the Padres' set-up man, they chose to re-stretch him out as a starter, and he was absolutely dialed in three starts in Triple-A, while still maintaining his high strikeout numbers. I've always liked his assortment of pitches, he throws gas and as a hard slider and changeup to go along with it. I really do believe he'll turn it around this time around in a starting role, which is saying something because I detested him as a Cub and thought his future, if he had one at the time, would be best served in a bullpen role (Which he thrived in).

As for Dallas Keuchel, I'm going to be honest: I don't know much about the guy. All I can base my judgment off of is his first two Major League starts, in which he displayed incredible, incredible poise - even in a road start in Arlington. He's looked good in those starts, so drawing a favorable matchup at home with the Friars, where is the evidence to suggest that his wheels start coming off? Keuchel should continue this run and contribute to a low-scoring affair.

Good first inning, by the way. Both guys look strong.

Cecil vs Haren over 9.5 hits in the FIFTH, which is no surprise to me at all. That would've been a $100 bet if the line was 9, like it should have been given who was pitching, but a win's a win. In any case, I mention all this because, as you guys have seen my write about before, I can notice when Vegas tips their hand in instances such as these. Compared to other matchups in Toronto, this, as I also said, had a higher line than other inferior pitching matchups over the past couple of years, so they were 100-percent anticipating the over like I was.

Cashner no hitter alert through 5. Could this be the FIFTH no-hitter/perfect game I had the under on this YEAR? That has to be close to the official Vegas record, if such a feat exists

Anddd it's only appropriate that my favorite player in all of baseball, Carlos Lee, breaks up the no-hit bid. Let me tell you something, this is probably the last time we'll see an Andrew Cashner over/under listed above 8 all year

Is this real life? When is this bullshit going to stop happening to me? Had an easy best bet victory locked up, let's review the once-in-a-lifetime BS that just took place...

-First of all, I was 100-percent right on this Cashner vs Keuchel UNDER 8.5. I don't care what the final score says. Cashner had a no-htter into the 7th and was brilliant, Keuchel was very good as well. If you took the over, you were way off the mark and deserved nothing even close to a "win."

-It's 3-1 Astros entering the ninth inning, Brett Myers, one of the best closers in the league this year, on to close it out, against a team that had lost 119 straight games when losing going into the ninth inning. Let me repeat that: THE PADRES HAD 119 STRAIGHT LOSSES WHEN ENTERING THE NINTH INNING WHILE LOSING.

-It becomes 3-3 on a hit batsmen with the bases loaded (Who does that?), but still a much stronger chance of finishing under 8.5.

-Alexei Amarista, the 5-foot-7 .215-hitting second baseman comes up with two outs and the bases loaded... and uncorks a grand slam for his first career home run?

ARE YOU FUCKING KIDDING ME? Just yet another example this year where I could not have been anymore right... yet somehow end up with one of the most bizarre fluke losses in gambling history. The bullshit does not stop in 2012...

There was an error in that 9th also. Amorista wouldn't even have come to the plate if they had just fielded their poisition.

Larry Large said:

There was an error in that 9th also. Amorista wouldn't even have come to the plate if they had just fielded their poisition.

Click to expand...

YES! I forgot about that also! While it wasn't the easiest play in the world, it was still a ground ball hit to third baseman Chris Johnson that actually could have been a game-ending double play ball (He didn't even record an out from it), but since that was a few plays before the grand slam, when another out was recorded, yes, the game would have been over 3-1 or 3-2.

Unbelievable.

Truly unbelievable. I bet the linesmakers are having a good laugh over this one, since they realized they made a horrific mistake making the line as high as it was (Foolishly underrating the potential of Andrew Cashner)

About to begin my hours-long over/under routine for tomorrow's games. I can only hope this Padres/Astros game does not get in my head, as that's a loss that can scar someone for days, if not beyond a week, or even more. To be successful in this industry, you have to be in the right state of mind and having fun with it, so you're not pressing or going through the motions - that's a clear-cut recipe for disaster.

You will not hear of a worse beat than what I experienced in that game tonight. Oh boy, have to put this one behind me, although it's just so ridiculous how this stuff is constantly happening to me this year, and I've done this every day for the past few years and have never seen anything closely like this in any other year.

Truly unbelievable.

you know Brett Myers gave up 5 runs in the 9th just 10 days ago against KC and cost you a best bet too. He was only credited with 1 er tonight...lol. His ERA is gonna look better than it should be. But he has been slumping so be careful with Houston. FYI, Imagina how NYY fans feel tonight, 9th innings have produced TONS of runs this year. its funny, the 1st and the 9th innings seem to be scoring a lot this year. Dont know all the reasons why

skyla316 said:

you know Brett Myers gave up 5 runs in the 9th just 10 days ago against KC and cost you a best bet too. He was only credited with 1 er tonight...lol. His ERA is gonna look better than it should be. But he has been slumping so be careful with Houston. FYI, Imagina how NYY fans feel tonight, 9th innings have produced TONS of runs this year. its funny, the 1st and the 9th innings seem to be scoring a lot this year. Dont know all the reasons why

Click to expand...

Lol there's no possible way to justify what happened in that Padres/Astros game. Whoever took the over legitimately got one of the luckiest breaks in the history of gambling. And that earlier Brett Myers appearance you refer to was a non-save situation vs KC when he was "just getting work in," although closers seemingly always struggle in those specific situations.

Here he just had to close out a game against one of the worst offenses in baseball that had lost 112 straight games when trailing entering the ninth inning, only to give up a two-out grand slam - the first career home run, that is - to 5-foot-7, .210-hitting Alexei Amarista, which in all honesty will probably end up being Amarista's only home run this year, and beyond. And it only got to this point because of an error at third base, which no one can predict.

Oh, and I never mentioned he came into the game as a pinch RUNNER, and only stayed in the lineup because Bud Black had no one else on his bench. Still can't believe what went down here ughhh