Friday: Last Inning Blues YTD: 195-160, + +59.2 units

ofred · Jun 29, 2012

Thursday: 5-4, -. 6 units

Lost all 4 games in the final frame. I don't mind the Rockies one as I felt lucky to be that close, but the Houston game- the Padres score 6 in an inning in the funk they're in!!! Oh well, I didn't get killed in any one game. Then I would know I don't know what the hell I'm doing.

Mets: I'm jumping on this -1 tonight for 4 units. It's about -105 right now. The best pitcher in the past month vs. the top slumping team in the NL (now that the Padres scored 6 runs in one inning). Tonight the Dodgers couldn't even score on the Mets bullpen. Dickey probably won't need the bullpen. Furthermore, many of the Mets hit well off of Harang. 7 runs in 10 IPs last year included, no games this year. And face it, the Mets have an offense and the Dodgers have 9 guys who have flogged and whiffed against much lesser pitchers. Forget Dickey's last game vs. the Yankees. they are the best team in the majors at this moment (well, maybe not after losing Petitte and CC- but before). They had one good inning off of him and the Yankees are the perfect patient team to wait on his knuckled. They walked and waited, and got a HBP- then boom, a HR to win the game.

ofred · Jun 29, 2012

Arizona TT over 4 or 4.5. 2 units if 4. 1 unit(large) if 4.5. D-Backs are a different hitting team at home. But i like the way they won for their rookie phenom tonight, hung in there Wednesday to make it close. Milwaukee Friday will be a lot like Arizona. Dry weather and short fences. Randy Wolf has also struggled against many of these Arizona hitters. Arizona is hitting .276 against lefties this year. After seeing the Braves good pitching, Wolf and the Brewer BP will be a relief.

Colorado -1/2 first 5 innings. One unit. The Rockies are such a better hitting team than SD. They proved that against great Washington pitching. Francis is giving them 5 good IPs. But their BP must be exhausted. Marquis has pitched well for SD, but we'll see in the light air of Coors vs. a real slugging team- not Seattle. Besides, bad pitchers like Marquis eventually regress to their norm- I'm betting this will be it.
Colorado TT. One unit

ofred · Jun 29, 2012

Texas/ Oakland: under 10.5. one unit. Both of these pitchers are on their game. AJ Griffin is really good at keeping the ball low, with good command. He pitched very well in the PCL, which is brutal on pitchers and his first start vs. SF. Texas sometimes struggles against pitchers they haven't seen before. Harrison has been the ace of the Texas staff. Will be hot Friday so neither pitcher will go deep, but all relievers should be available for both teams. And they're Bps are pretty good. Both Oakland and Texas have had lower scoring games when facing better pitching.

ofred · Jun 29, 2012

St. Louis - 1/2 first 5 innings. One unit
St. Louis. -1 one unit. The Pirates are coming off a tough series with their rival Phillies. They might need a game under their belt to get going again. Correia isn't bad, but the Cardinals have hit him well. It will be very hot and the Cards have rested up with a day off. Wainwright has almost completely regained his stuff from elbow surgery if not all his velocity. St. Louis is hitting well. Pirates have BP advantage, but not a big one.

bronaab · Jun 29, 2012

Love Dickey tomorrow for all the reasons you state. He's still not getting respect as a top 3 pitcher. We get the better pitcher and better O for -140 ML?? Only risk is BP, but the game should be in hand by that time. Feels like a trap line but I'll bite. BTW, watched all of the D-backs game today...Juirjens was very very lucky getting base runners thrown out at home and caught stealing. In most cases, he would have given up 4 or 5 runs. Look to fade him going forward. Glad we got the W in that one today. Lucky off Kimbrel

yakmerchant · Jun 29, 2012

o fred said:
Texas/ Oakland: under 10.5. one unit. Both of these pitchers are on their game. AJ Griffin is really good at keeping the ball low, with good command. He pitched very well in the PCL, which is brutal on pitchers and his first start vs. SF. Texas sometimes struggles against pitchers they haven't seen before. Harrison has been the ace of the Texas staff. Will be hot Friday so neither pitcher will go deep, but all relievers should be available for both teams. And they're Bps are pretty good. Both Oakland and Texas have had lower scoring games when facing better pitching.

Something doesn't smell right. Your analysis is pretty much spot on (other than the back end of the Rangers' bully needs a rest), but why is the total that high in the first place? Why did it get bet from 10 to 10.5? Griffin has a 0.67 WHIP in first start and Harrison has been lights out in last 7 starts? You are also correct the Rangers like to make kids they've never seen look like Cy Young, but right now Rangers unders are a scary thing and with Gerry Davis back their who knows. I'll be very interested to see what happens.. I'm may be interested in backing Milone on Saturday however.

Catchn_Flops · Jun 29, 2012

yak merchant said:
Something doesn't smell right. Your analysis is pretty much spot on (other than the back end of the Rangers' bully needs a rest), but why is the total that high in the first place? Why did it get bet from 10 to 10.5? Griffin has a 0.67 WHIP in first start and Harrison has been lights out in last 7 starts? You are also correct the Rangers like to make kids they've never seen look like Cy Young, but right now Rangers unders are a scary thing and with Gerry Davis back their who knows. I'll be very interested to see what happens.. I'm may be interested in backing Milone on Saturday however.

If anything the 10.5 line with plus juice is holding....am I too greedy to wait for a possible 11 to show up?

How do you like the Col total line today with the Pads? Some books have gone to a 12!! The only time I remember that for awhile are Cubs games with the wind blowing out.

Bobbflo · Jun 29, 2012

Big O- checking yesterday posts, I got you at 4-5..what did I miss or mess up on? thanks Keep picking winners bro Thanks

edit- never mind Fred got it - missed the NYYFFI .5-4 it is bro thanks

yakmerchant · Jun 29, 2012

Catchn_Flops said:
If anything the 10.5 line with plus juice is holding....am I too greedy to wait for a possible 11 to show up?

How do you like the Col total line today with the Pads? Some books have gone to a 12!! The only time I remember that for awhile are Cubs games with the wind blowing out.

Yes but the opener was 10. My point was it was pushed to 10.5 by over bettors.
12 is about right at "Coors Canaveral". The 2012 average runs scored at Coors field is just over 12 which is up from the last couple of years. Pre-humidor days the totals in Colorado were 13.5+ just about every day.

stander · Jun 29, 2012

Last game v NYY, it looked like Dickey didn't have the control he enjoyed in previous games. Any concerns he could hang a few up to make a weak-hitting Doyers side look good?

Humidity at %50 gametime and getting better (higher) as the game goes on http://www.wunderground.com/sports/MLB/hometeam/Los_Angeles:Dodgers.html?st=1341007800

Maris9 · Jun 29, 2012

Just a heads in that Oak/Tex game. Both Nathan and Adams have been used 3 days in a row. I doubt either of them throws tonight. Could be sketchy if Texas is up late.

ofred · Jun 29, 2012

Thanks for all the input the last few days. Should have listened to a couple of you guys and would have won more.

Arizona TT over 4.5 is one unit to the large side.
Colorado TT over is one unit to large side.
Colorado -1/2 first 5 innings. one unit to the large side. I might have more money later on the Rockies. Considering they earned a split against the very tough Nats, and how they hit some great pitching, SD could be in for a tough weekend. They are also not used to the heat.

ofred · Jun 29, 2012

As for the Texas over, Harrison has just been so unbelievably good, even at home, and this new kid also likely to be tough- I guess under first 5 might be a good bet too. It's at under 6 for the first 5, which is very generous. I think I'll bet off half of my under for the game, and take the under 6 for first 5 IP. With this heat, these starters will likely give up their runs in the 5th -7th.

Catchn_Flops · Jun 29, 2012

o fred said:
As for the Texas over, Harrison has just been so unbelievably good, even at home, and this new kid also likely to be tough- I guess under first 5 might be a good bet too. It's at under 6 for the first 5, which is very generous. I think I'll bet off half of my under for the game, and take the under 6 for first 5 IP. With this heat, these starters will likely give up their runs in the 5th -7th.

I layed a little more juice and took under 11...obv a key total number. Will pick up a half a unit on the first 5 as well.

BOL...looks like a great day.

ofred · Jun 29, 2012

As for the Mets game, I guess there might be some reasons the -1 is so reasonable a number. The Dodgers have probably not been this much an underdog at home for a long time, and win when they do. I'm also thinking there is some crazy formula that you see on web sites- such as: Home teams, coming off a loss to an East Coast team, playing night games, with a right-hander pitching have been 43-5 over the last 10 years. Or maybe folks don't respect the Mets or think Dickey is the real deal. Let's put this in perspective: Before the Yankee game, which for some pitchers would have been a quality start, he pitched 48. 2 innings(pretty large sample), 21 hits, 1 ER and 63 Ks. I honestly can't remember the last time a pitcher went on a 6 game run like that. Now he is facing a severely slumping team, with a pitcher the Mets can hit. I might lose this, but I still say it's a bargain.
Adding Mets - 1/2 first 5 IPS. One unit

ofred · Jun 29, 2012

The over on the Rockies game is still looking good even at 12. The Rockies BP will be needed with Francis and the heat. But Marquis will also need BP help. And the Rockies are likely to get 6-10 runs themselves.

stander · Jun 29, 2012

On Dickey's Performance v NYY, this makes sense: (from Pops thread)

Dazed&Confused said:
That was against NYY. Most of those Yanks had seen Wakefield a few times. I think that gave them an edge.

ofred · Jun 29, 2012

LAA: 2 units
LAA: TT over 4.5 one unit. The Angels once again gave a pitcher his worst line of the season when they tattered Brett Cecil last night. They are NOW the hottest hitting team in the majors. They are hitting HRs, walking (being patient) and making great contact. Then there's the Blue Jays bullpen, which is lousy. The Blue Jays defense is pretty poor too, while the Angels' is decent. Villaneuva will be on a pitch count, and so we'll see the Jays' BP for sure- a lot of it. Villaneuva is a better reliever than starter, worse at home than on the road, and worse at night than in the day time. Santana is heating up as he usually does in the middle of the summer. And forget about the Jays hitting Haren last night. Haren looks to be really bad right now. Oh, almost forget. The Angels steal bases and get pitchers out of their game by being aggressive on the base paths. Villaneuva being a righty will be easier to do that with.

Bee40 · Jun 29, 2012

Nice picks today fred. I been riding the Angels for a week now and whoever is playing against the Dodgers.

The Mets offense looked a little wimpy last night, but D. Wright always kills the Dodgers - he'll probably get another few hits tonight vs. Harang. Mets BP sucks but at least their stand-in closer throws hard, and without Ethier I don't know who is gonna get a big late inning hit. Dee Gordon? I laugh every time I see this kid, has no business being on a major league roster. I've had bowel movements that weigh more than him. Dodgers only have 6 HR's this month, there's a handful of players on teams who have more than that by themselves - so that gives me extra confidence against a knuckleballer. GL today

CatsOverUnders · Jun 29, 2012

o fred said:
but the Houston game- the Padres score 6 in an inning in the funk they're in!!! Oh well, I didn't get killed in any one game. Then I would know I don't know what the hell I'm doing.

The under in this game was my best bet. We both got screwed, as it was arguably the worst bad beat of any ALL season this year... the Padres had lost 119 STRAIGHT GAMES when trailing entering the ninth inning, while Alexei Amarista, who's a 5-foot-7, 145-pound, .210-hitting second baseman (No exaggeration on the height and weight), hit the grand slam with two outs in the ninth and it was his first career home run... wouldn't be surprised if it's the only home run of his Major League career. It was also the first time in Major League history where something like that occured (Go ahead ninth inning grand slam being someone's first ever Major League homerun)

Oh, and there was an error in the inning, leading to five of those six runs being unearned. Without that, Amarista doesn't even get up and the Astros win 3-1 or 3-2. UGH

So, yeah, that was definitely the worst bad break in baseball this season. You have a solid record, though, so just keep doing what you're doing and you'll stay in nice shape.

Friday: Last Inning Blues YTD: 195-160, + +59.2 units

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