The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - June 29, 2012 - YTD: 199-193-18

2012 MLB O/U Record: 199-193-18, -$1,323 (Been making bigger bets this year, with countless bad breaks, obviously)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104

Well, probably one of the most disheartening 2-2 performances someone can experience, as I had last night when I obviously should have been 3-1. Unfortunately, one of the worst bad beats in history occurred in that Cashner vs Keuchel under 8.5, as I could not have been anymore right in that pitching matchup, especially considering Andrew Cashner had a no-hitter going into the 7th. Overall, both starters were excellent and helped lead this to become a 3-1 game entering the ninth. Of course, all Brett Myers had to do was close it out for the Astros against one of the worst offenses in all of baseball, a team, to be more specific, that had lost 112 STRAIGHT GAMES WHEN TRAILING ENTERING THE 9TH INNING. And of course, after an error in the inning, as well a hit batsman on an 0-2 pitch with the bases loaded to tie the game, Myers served up the most unlikely two-out grand slam you will EVER see (Trust me), giving it up to Alexei Amarista… yes,THAT Alexei Amarista who is 5-foot-7, 145-pounds, not to mention hitting .210 coming into that at-bat, and belted his first career home run that may very well legitimately end up being the only home run of his career. In fact, he’s such a useless hitter that he was ONLY in the game, as the announcers pointed out, to pinch-run, but had to stay in because Bud Black used up his entire bench trying to generate a comeback in this pitcher’s duel. Absolutely unbelievable. As a result, today is going to be a light betting day, as the taste of that “loss” really got into my head when looking at this Friday slate of games, so I can’t let it snowball.


**Dollar Amount To Be Posted Leading Up To Gametime**


Houston Astros @ Chicago Cubs
Bud Norris vs Paul Maholm
UNDER [Line Not Up Yet? I expect 9]

It’s the only afternoon game on this final Friday in June but I personally could not ask for a more delightful pitching matchup. In other words, if you are a regular reader of mine, you know how much these two pitchers mean to me. First, there is Bud Norris, who is my No. 1 favorite pitcher in all of baseball, and as crazy as that sounds, it’s no exaggeration whatsoever, since I’ve been reminding all of you that all year. He immediately caught my eye when I watched him make his Major League debut in a rare relief appearance … on this very day, actually… and also at Wrigley Field. Yes, it was June 29, 2009 when Norris got his very first taste of big-league action, so that’s actually a variable to consider coming into this start, as this is something that he is undoubtedly aware of, especially since 2009 still feels like yesterday. Aside from that, Norris has a good track record against them, posting a 1.89 ERA with 35 strikeouts in 33 innings against the Cubs in six career games (Five starts), and considering Chicago’s NL ballclub has sported as imilar lineup over these past few years, that’s a relevant trend to consider. The only thing keeping me from making this a bigger bet is that this is Norris’ first start back from the disabled list, which is always a huge variable no matter if it’s Justin Verlander or Nick Blackburn. In other words, it’s incredibly hard to predict how a pitcher is going to perform in his first start back from injury (How are they feeling mentally after a lengthy time out? Arethey physically back to normal?), but considering I know Bud Norris as well as anybody in the country, scouts included, then that’s a pretty safe feeling to bet on, and I believe Norris will get himself back on track right away. The time off may have done him some good, as he started inexplicably struggling after an incredible month of May (Other than that final start in Colorado that single-handedly prevented him from winning Pitcher of the Month), and I know for a fact that his final numbers will be much better than where they are now. The effort to turn said numbers around begins today.

When he was a Pirate, Paul Maholm was an underrated unders machine, especially against the Astros. In fact, Maholm is 11-6 for his career against Houston over 20 starts, boasting a very nice 3.31ERA in the process. However, it’s a new chapter in the career of Mr. Maholm, who is certainly in my Top Ten of favorite Major League pitchers, and unfortunately, he has not been as dependable in a Cubs uniform as he was while wearing the black-and-gold of Pittsburgh. Even so, Maholm has still displayed mostly good stuff, and according to his 2012 split stats, we’re catching him at the best possible time. He’s muuuuch better, surprisingly, home at Wrigley(3.92 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, .237 BAA) than on the road (7.15 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, .328 BAA…yikes), and he’s also been a superior pitcher during the day (4.33 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, .241 BAA) compared to at night (6.30 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, .313 BAA). At the end of the day, Maholm is in a similar situation to his opposing hurler here today, in that his numbers are off base from his usual production, and like Norris as well, there are definitely numbers that shall be improved on considerably as this season progresses. Maholm is much better than his 5.38 ERA, so much so that he’s only had one season in the past four years with a mark north of 5. He’s had a couple of rough performances in tough spots (Ex. His last start in hitters’ haven Arizona, where he was clocked for seven runs in 3.1 IP. I had the over of that game, remember), but if he is to turn his season around, which I think he’ll do, it has to begin at some point, and given his track record versus these Astros, as well as the fact that he’s been significantly better at home and during the day this year, well, this seems like the right spot for him to make that push in the right direction. It’s two guys I know very well, and have had success with in recent years, including 2012, so it’s a good gamble investing in both of these underrated pitchers.


**Will Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**

Cat, you obviously do your homework on your plays, and I respect that. But, how much consideration do you give the bullpens when you cap? These are two of the worst pens in all of baseball, and neither of these pitchers have gone more than 6 innings in quite a while.

i'm with ya here tar heel...i don't follow this guy religiously, but when i do, i take the first halfs only...i bet u this kid is hittin 70 to 75 percent for me on these first halfs when i follow. when he lists his picks he only lists the starting pitchers, never refers to the team they pitch for. Actually has some great insight the majority of the time, but he is just playing the pitchers or funky vegas lines (which i like his angle on this) ie: last nite's laa/tor over...line was too high , so go over...that type of stuff makes sense to me. anyways, seems to me with his style of betting, first halfs are the way to go...and cat thanks for the time and effort

My book has the line cut at 8 even. Those bastards. Would you take Chicago with Maholm and his numbers in the day and at home over Norris coming back from injury maybe for a First Five?

Final amount for this matchup with two of my top favorite five or six pitchers, Norris vs Maholm, will be $50 for $40, and I got it at UNDER 8.5. I was expecting 9, as Norris was struggling a bit before his injury, while Maholm is coming off a rough outing of his own, but apparently Vegas likes a lower-scoring affair like I do. It certainly isn't based on any action from the public, as Norris and Maholm are unfortunately two relatively lesser-known pitchers, so if anything, I'd assume most of the consensus is on the over, with Vegas sucking people into that such bet.

It's also possible that I could be wrong, obviously. While I'm infatuated with both of these pitchers, and have been ever since I got into this in 2009, sometimes your personal affection towards pitchers can cloud your better judgment so bet cautiously. I believe my main vibe was more towards a 5-2/4-2 kind of game.

john boland said:

My book has the line cut at 8 even. Those bastards. Would you take Chicago with Maholm and his numbers in the day and at home over Norris coming back from injury maybe for a First Five?

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Ehhhh, it's tough lol. Moneylines are not my department, but when a pitcher is coming off injury, it's such a tough variable when analyzing who will win and who will lose. I read a lot of quotes from Bud Norris - as a matter of fact, I've read so much stuff he's said over these past few years that I feel like I know him pretty well - and he says he feels 100-percent, so as long as he's telling the truth, which I think he is because I KNOW he's a gamer, and with a fresh mindset from his time off on the DL, he can potentially dominate the Cubs today.

Maholm also in a good mindset. I like that he didn't lose confidence or anything from his last start in Arizona, which is good because he was actually cruising through the first few innings. Listen to this... he attributed his decline in that game to HITTING A HOMERUN (!), which he did in the second or third, and he said he became content with that, which is acceptable because it's such a rare and impressive feat for a non-slugging pitcher like Maholm, that he'll be that much more motivated to attone for his overall bad performance in that aforementioned start.

Lol so yeah, like I said, it's hard to pick a winner when I love both guys. But the under sticks out to me most.

tar_heel_in_sc said:

Cat, you obviously do your homework on your plays, and I respect that. But, how much consideration do you give the bullpens when you cap? These are two of the worst pens in all of baseball, and neither of these pitchers have gone more than 6 innings in quite a while.

Click to expand...

creelox said:

i'm with ya here tar heel...i don't follow this guy religiously, but when i do, i take the first halfs only...i bet u this kid is hittin 70 to 75 percent for me on these first halfs when i follow. when he lists his picks he only lists the starting pitchers, never refers to the team they pitch for. Actually has some great insight the majority of the time, but he is just playing the pitchers or funky vegas lines (which i like his angle on this) ie: last nite's laa/tor over...line was too high , so go over...that type of stuff makes sense to me. anyways, seems to me with his style of betting, first halfs are the way to go...and cat thanks for the time and effort

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Thanks for the feedback guys. Let me start with your questions concerning the work I put into bullpens... all I'll say is, the consideration I give them is miniscule. Why? Bullpens are a collective unit - as long as you grasp what they normally do collectively as a unit in getting to their closer, that's really all you need to know, UNLESS there is some sort of significant trend that needs to be considered. Furthermore, bullpens are wayyyyy too inconsistent, especially this year by far more than any other in the recent past, to give them any more attention. For example, the Royals have a top five bullpen, but of course, there are some games they will randomly blow in the eighth or ninth innings. You can't predict that, just as I found out when Louis Coleman, who had a low 3's ERA, got rocked and blew an under of mine last week. There are times when you want to rely on a closer to seal off an under when he's on a streak of double-digit converted opportunities, but even that can be random, like when I lost an under this year after Rafael Betancourt's impressive streak throughout the first month-plus was snapped in my game.

Simply put, if you pay too much attention to bullpens, you're suddenly entering a completely different mindset. You have to then map out every different routine a starter takes in getting to certain pitchers, which is also tough because then you have to take into account if they're winning, losing, tied, etc.... that's wayyy too much to consider. All you need is a solid grasp on the unit as a whole, and that's it. You can question it if you want, that's perfectly fine, especially with the countless numbers of unders that have inexplicably been blown this year despite being well on track in the final two innings. But, I continue to do this because it's the saaaaame exact consideration I gave them last year when I went 366-270-42. Then again, it's been such a significant downfall for bullpens this year (I'm still proceeding to dig up some sort of stat that officially proclaims that bullpens are at their worst in 2012 - perhaps in baseball history), that maybe I SHOULD make an adjustment or tink to my routine, but like I've said, I'm a creature of habit, and I'm not going to suddenly change something that worked so well for me after just three months of mixed results, espcially since a lot of these bullpen breakdowns are absolute flukes (Ex. Mike Nickeas two-out grand slam off then-hot closer Dale Thayer; Brett Myers grand slam to Alexei Amarista; Yan Gomes' meaningless two-out, two-run homer in bottom of 9th to single-handed ruin the under off SEAN BURNETT, one of the best setup men in all of baseball AND had a less-than-1 ERA at the time; Carlos Gomez' pinch-hit, ninth-inning two-run homer against the Dodgers to cost me an under).

You just can't predict a lot of these things that have been happening concerning the bullpen this year, so I just continue to do my incredible, incredible amount of homework, and more, on the starting pitchers, in hopes of them doing what you want them to do and putting you in a position to win. That's always been a main objective of mine, at least in unders: The starting pitchers will hold your hand through the first 5-8 innings, and as long as they put you in a position to win (Vice versa for overs, also), then I, as an over/unders gambler, have done my job. You play by the percentages, and you hope that the 80-90% chance you have of winning after the starters did a miraculous job throughout most of the game, comes through in the end. Unfortunately, though, the 95+% chance I had of winning last night's best bet Cashner vs Keuchel under 8.5 (Since, you know, the Padres had 112 straight losses when trailing while entering the 9th inning, and they were facing one of the better closers in baseball this year AND their lineup is not even explosive at all) did not come through, but that's supposed to be a rarity. Unfortunately, rarities in other years are become farrrr too frequent in this very, very, very bizarre 2012 season.

tar_heel_in_sc said:

Cat, you obviously do your homework on your plays, and I respect that. But, how much consideration do you give the bullpens when you cap? These are two of the worst pens in all of baseball, and neither of these pitchers have gone more than 6 innings in quite a while.

Click to expand...

Also forgot to address your concern about their potential durability in this game so let me discuss that:

Bud Norris hasn't gone more than six innings in only four starts. That can happen to any pitcher, especially when you're including such a streak where he was apparently pitching HURT for most of it. Prior to that, he went at least six innings in eight of his nine starts for the entire SEASON. One of the great things about Bud, and I know this from watching him so many damn times over the years (Since he is my No. 1 favorite pitcher and all) is that he ALWAYS wants to go deep into games. His facial expressions, his attitude, his body language... everything about him always makes it obvious that he wants to make every pitch in the ballgame. You can never question his toughness; the only thing we CAN question, coming into this start, is if he's fully healthy from his injury. And based on what he said, I believe he is.

As for Paul Maholm, that's a reasonable flag to bring up. However, I counter with this: He's a veteran who has pitched deep into ballgames countless times throughout his lengthy eight year career. Once you've done it as many times as he has, you can do it again on any given day. Yes, he has NOT been as consistent this year with his new team as he was with the Pirates, but he has shown shades of his old self in bunches, and I've pinpointed most of those occasions before they took place (Ex. Go back to my article from 4/27. He outdueled ROY HALLADAY that night in my best bet under when Halladay was still in top form, something I alluded to that he could easily pull off). I've always been good with Maholm, and this is a spot where I feel like he'll handle himself well against a team he has always been good against, especially entering this game with the mindset that he wants to bounce back immediately from one of his worst performances of the season in his last start.

Nice victory there. As I always remind everyone, no one knows Paul Maholm or Bud Norris better than I do. There's just certain go-to pitchers we have as everyday bettors, and as I've been saying all year, those are two of my top five favorite pitchers in all of baseball so it just comes naturally. Would've been a huge bet if this wasn't Norris' first start off the DL, but he handled himself okay, given that it was his first start back, in surviving six innings at Wrigley Field that only saw him make a couple of mistakes leading to gopher balls, which arguably were aided a bit by the wind. Meanwhile, I couldn't have been anymore right on Maholm with his brilliant eight-plus inning performance. The crafty lefty clearly still has it, even if he doesn't show it every five days.

Not sure if I'm going to bite on any of these 7 o'clock games, which is a shame because I hate wasting a Jose Quintana start when I'm one of the few people that discovered him when he was a completely unknown long reliever for the White Sox and even said he had the make-up and stuff to be a successful starter... a couple of months later, could I have been anymore right? But he's facing this kid Adam Warren that I've never even heard of, nor have I really read up on him, so that's a game I have to avoid.

I'll probably have at least one more game on tonight's slate, which I'll post when I have fully gathered that wager.

Cat,

Wondering, if you have the time, and only if you have the time, to go back and see what your record would be playing 1st 5 innings.

I know you say you don't want to change whats worked in the past, but this year is DIFFERENT than last year in many ways, as you've seen. If you're a consistent winner over 1st 5 then maybe you should adjust to that.

Other than Pops thread yours is one of the few that I normally look at / for. Other than the constant claiming about freak losses I tend to like your stuff + reasoning, though your money management has a bit of work, but that doesn't really affect the bottom line - which is plays.

Anyway, thanks for your hard work and I'm looking forward to seeing the 1st 5 inning results if you have time.

GL tonight what-ever way you go.

Only adding one more over/under, Dickey vs Harang over 6.5, for the minimum, that being a measly $13 for $10.

In fact, for those looking for a lot of action on all three games tonight, I recommend betting the over of all three 10 o'clock games. Not only did I have a vibe for them in variation, but the Law of Averages indicates it is more likely that there will be more overs than unders tonight, so there's a potential profit in that strategy

billyjoejim said:

Cat,

Wondering, if you have the time, and only if you have the time, to go back and see what your record would be playing 1st 5 innings.

I know you say you don't want to change whats worked in the past, but this year is DIFFERENT than last year in many ways, as you've seen. If you're a consistent winner over 1st 5 then maybe you should adjust to that.

Other than Pops thread yours is one of the few that I normally look at / for. Other than the constant claiming about freak losses I tend to like your stuff + reasoning, though your money management has a bit of work, but that doesn't really affect the bottom line - which is plays.

Anyway, thanks for your hard work and I'm looking forward to seeing the 1st 5 inning results if you have time.

GL tonight what-ever way you go.

Click to expand...

Thank you for the kind words, it's always appreciated. You know something, I really, really do want to know what my record would be with five-inning over/unders this season, as a few others have also alluded to how much better my record would be in 2012 if I exclusively just focused on that. I think at some point this year, I would like to attempt to find that out, but I feel like it would require so much work going through each game's boxscore/linescore, not to mention digging up the five-inning line for each of those games... and that could be tough to do with the almost 400 over/unders I've bet on so far this year At the top of this thread, creelox said he's been winning 70-to-75 percent of my games in the five-inning form, and while I know my percentage as a whole wouldn't be that high, if it's hovering around 60, then that would definitely be something I want to explore.

You're absolutely right, though, in saying how much this year has been different from last, or any of these past few recent years for that matter. Unfortunately, the problem with being a stubborn creature of habit such as myself is that it's very difficult to stray away from what I'm used to, which is my baby, that being the full-game, nine-inning over/unders. I plan on sticking with them no matter what, as I really want to see how I finish up and find out if what I did last year was just a "career year" that I can never match again, or if it really was an indication that I could do this professionally and consistently over a long period of time. But who knows, maybe I'll start getting into five-inning bets at some point after the all-star break. We'll see how the next few weeks go.

Okay, 2-0 day. Not much money from it but it's the record that means more to me, especially following that horrendous bad break from Thursday night that I was very afraid would snowball after how that played out - I'd be lieing if I said that didn't creep into my concentration when reviewing all of Friday's slate. Luckily it only took one day to put behind me and as a result, I should be at my best when I begin my over/under routine for Saturday's games. Very important performance to me today.