2012 MLB O/U Record: 199-193-18, -$1,323 (Been making bigger bets this year, with countless bad breaks, obviously)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Well, probably one of the most disheartening 2-2 performances someone can experience, as I had last night when I obviously should have been 3-1. Unfortunately, one of the worst bad beats in history occurred in that Cashner vs Keuchel under 8.5, as I could not have been anymore right in that pitching matchup, especially considering Andrew Cashner had a no-hitter going into the 7th. Overall, both starters were excellent and helped lead this to become a 3-1 game entering the ninth. Of course, all Brett Myers had to do was close it out for the Astros against one of the worst offenses in all of baseball, a team, to be more specific, that had lost 112 STRAIGHT GAMES WHEN TRAILING ENTERING THE 9TH INNING. And of course, after an error in the inning, as well a hit batsman on an 0-2 pitch with the bases loaded to tie the game, Myers served up the most unlikely two-out grand slam you will EVER see (Trust me), giving it up to Alexei Amarista… yes,THAT Alexei Amarista who is 5-foot-7, 145-pounds, not to mention hitting .210 coming into that at-bat, and belted his first career home run that may very well legitimately end up being the only home run of his career. In fact, he’s such a useless hitter that he was ONLY in the game, as the announcers pointed out, to pinch-run, but had to stay in because Bud Black used up his entire bench trying to generate a comeback in this pitcher’s duel. Absolutely unbelievable. As a result, today is going to be a light betting day, as the taste of that “loss” really got into my head when looking at this Friday slate of games, so I can’t let it snowball.
**Dollar Amount To Be Posted Leading Up To Gametime**
Houston Astros @ Chicago Cubs
Bud Norris vs Paul Maholm
UNDER [Line Not Up Yet? I expect 9]
It’s the only afternoon game on this final Friday in June but I personally could not ask for a more delightful pitching matchup. In other words, if you are a regular reader of mine, you know how much these two pitchers mean to me. First, there is Bud Norris, who is my No. 1 favorite pitcher in all of baseball, and as crazy as that sounds, it’s no exaggeration whatsoever, since I’ve been reminding all of you that all year. He immediately caught my eye when I watched him make his Major League debut in a rare relief appearance … on this very day, actually… and also at Wrigley Field. Yes, it was June 29, 2009 when Norris got his very first taste of big-league action, so that’s actually a variable to consider coming into this start, as this is something that he is undoubtedly aware of, especially since 2009 still feels like yesterday. Aside from that, Norris has a good track record against them, posting a 1.89 ERA with 35 strikeouts in 33 innings against the Cubs in six career games (Five starts), and considering Chicago’s NL ballclub has sported as imilar lineup over these past few years, that’s a relevant trend to consider. The only thing keeping me from making this a bigger bet is that this is Norris’ first start back from the disabled list, which is always a huge variable no matter if it’s Justin Verlander or Nick Blackburn. In other words, it’s incredibly hard to predict how a pitcher is going to perform in his first start back from injury (How are they feeling mentally after a lengthy time out? Arethey physically back to normal?), but considering I know Bud Norris as well as anybody in the country, scouts included, then that’s a pretty safe feeling to bet on, and I believe Norris will get himself back on track right away. The time off may have done him some good, as he started inexplicably struggling after an incredible month of May (Other than that final start in Colorado that single-handedly prevented him from winning Pitcher of the Month), and I know for a fact that his final numbers will be much better than where they are now. The effort to turn said numbers around begins today.
When he was a Pirate, Paul Maholm was an underrated unders machine, especially against the Astros. In fact, Maholm is 11-6 for his career against Houston over 20 starts, boasting a very nice 3.31ERA in the process. However, it’s a new chapter in the career of Mr. Maholm, who is certainly in my Top Ten of favorite Major League pitchers, and unfortunately, he has not been as dependable in a Cubs uniform as he was while wearing the black-and-gold of Pittsburgh. Even so, Maholm has still displayed mostly good stuff, and according to his 2012 split stats, we’re catching him at the best possible time. He’s muuuuch better, surprisingly, home at Wrigley(3.92 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, .237 BAA) than on the road (7.15 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, .328 BAA…yikes), and he’s also been a superior pitcher during the day (4.33 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, .241 BAA) compared to at night (6.30 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, .313 BAA). At the end of the day, Maholm is in a similar situation to his opposing hurler here today, in that his numbers are off base from his usual production, and like Norris as well, there are definitely numbers that shall be improved on considerably as this season progresses. Maholm is much better than his 5.38 ERA, so much so that he’s only had one season in the past four years with a mark north of 5. He’s had a couple of rough performances in tough spots (Ex. His last start in hitters’ haven Arizona, where he was clocked for seven runs in 3.1 IP. I had the over of that game, remember), but if he is to turn his season around, which I think he’ll do, it has to begin at some point, and given his track record versus these Astros, as well as the fact that he’s been significantly better at home and during the day this year, well, this seems like the right spot for him to make that push in the right direction. It’s two guys I know very well, and have had success with in recent years, including 2012, so it’s a good gamble investing in both of these underrated pitchers.
**Will Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Well, probably one of the most disheartening 2-2 performances someone can experience, as I had last night when I obviously should have been 3-1. Unfortunately, one of the worst bad beats in history occurred in that Cashner vs Keuchel under 8.5, as I could not have been anymore right in that pitching matchup, especially considering Andrew Cashner had a no-hitter going into the 7th. Overall, both starters were excellent and helped lead this to become a 3-1 game entering the ninth. Of course, all Brett Myers had to do was close it out for the Astros against one of the worst offenses in all of baseball, a team, to be more specific, that had lost 112 STRAIGHT GAMES WHEN TRAILING ENTERING THE 9TH INNING. And of course, after an error in the inning, as well a hit batsman on an 0-2 pitch with the bases loaded to tie the game, Myers served up the most unlikely two-out grand slam you will EVER see (Trust me), giving it up to Alexei Amarista… yes,THAT Alexei Amarista who is 5-foot-7, 145-pounds, not to mention hitting .210 coming into that at-bat, and belted his first career home run that may very well legitimately end up being the only home run of his career. In fact, he’s such a useless hitter that he was ONLY in the game, as the announcers pointed out, to pinch-run, but had to stay in because Bud Black used up his entire bench trying to generate a comeback in this pitcher’s duel. Absolutely unbelievable. As a result, today is going to be a light betting day, as the taste of that “loss” really got into my head when looking at this Friday slate of games, so I can’t let it snowball.
**Dollar Amount To Be Posted Leading Up To Gametime**
Houston Astros @ Chicago Cubs
Bud Norris vs Paul Maholm
UNDER [Line Not Up Yet? I expect 9]
It’s the only afternoon game on this final Friday in June but I personally could not ask for a more delightful pitching matchup. In other words, if you are a regular reader of mine, you know how much these two pitchers mean to me. First, there is Bud Norris, who is my No. 1 favorite pitcher in all of baseball, and as crazy as that sounds, it’s no exaggeration whatsoever, since I’ve been reminding all of you that all year. He immediately caught my eye when I watched him make his Major League debut in a rare relief appearance … on this very day, actually… and also at Wrigley Field. Yes, it was June 29, 2009 when Norris got his very first taste of big-league action, so that’s actually a variable to consider coming into this start, as this is something that he is undoubtedly aware of, especially since 2009 still feels like yesterday. Aside from that, Norris has a good track record against them, posting a 1.89 ERA with 35 strikeouts in 33 innings against the Cubs in six career games (Five starts), and considering Chicago’s NL ballclub has sported as imilar lineup over these past few years, that’s a relevant trend to consider. The only thing keeping me from making this a bigger bet is that this is Norris’ first start back from the disabled list, which is always a huge variable no matter if it’s Justin Verlander or Nick Blackburn. In other words, it’s incredibly hard to predict how a pitcher is going to perform in his first start back from injury (How are they feeling mentally after a lengthy time out? Arethey physically back to normal?), but considering I know Bud Norris as well as anybody in the country, scouts included, then that’s a pretty safe feeling to bet on, and I believe Norris will get himself back on track right away. The time off may have done him some good, as he started inexplicably struggling after an incredible month of May (Other than that final start in Colorado that single-handedly prevented him from winning Pitcher of the Month), and I know for a fact that his final numbers will be much better than where they are now. The effort to turn said numbers around begins today.
When he was a Pirate, Paul Maholm was an underrated unders machine, especially against the Astros. In fact, Maholm is 11-6 for his career against Houston over 20 starts, boasting a very nice 3.31ERA in the process. However, it’s a new chapter in the career of Mr. Maholm, who is certainly in my Top Ten of favorite Major League pitchers, and unfortunately, he has not been as dependable in a Cubs uniform as he was while wearing the black-and-gold of Pittsburgh. Even so, Maholm has still displayed mostly good stuff, and according to his 2012 split stats, we’re catching him at the best possible time. He’s muuuuch better, surprisingly, home at Wrigley(3.92 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, .237 BAA) than on the road (7.15 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, .328 BAA…yikes), and he’s also been a superior pitcher during the day (4.33 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, .241 BAA) compared to at night (6.30 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, .313 BAA). At the end of the day, Maholm is in a similar situation to his opposing hurler here today, in that his numbers are off base from his usual production, and like Norris as well, there are definitely numbers that shall be improved on considerably as this season progresses. Maholm is much better than his 5.38 ERA, so much so that he’s only had one season in the past four years with a mark north of 5. He’s had a couple of rough performances in tough spots (Ex. His last start in hitters’ haven Arizona, where he was clocked for seven runs in 3.1 IP. I had the over of that game, remember), but if he is to turn his season around, which I think he’ll do, it has to begin at some point, and given his track record versus these Astros, as well as the fact that he’s been significantly better at home and during the day this year, well, this seems like the right spot for him to make that push in the right direction. It’s two guys I know very well, and have had success with in recent years, including 2012, so it’s a good gamble investing in both of these underrated pitchers.
**Will Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**