NFL timing will chase up bets
Chad Millman
ESPN INSIDER
Ten minutes is a long time. Earthquakes come and go. Games are won and lost. Fortunes are earned and, just as quickly, they vanish. A lifetime's worth of experiences and emotions can happen in 600 seconds. Which is why the NFL's announcement yesterday that it was pushing back the late Sunday game start times 10 minutes, from a 4:15 est kickoff to 4:25, is such a gift for fans -- and a freaking boon for bettors and bookmakers.
In fact, if you ask bookmakers, which I did, they are -- shocker -- convinced that this is one more example of the NFL catering to the gambling community that it outwardly despises and would like to see permanently destroyed (at least until it can figure out how to monetize the whole thing). As one big-time sports book boss told me, "You think they are pushing back the start times because people really wanted to see more kickoffs? Ev
eryone knows that is the most exciting part of the game."
His point is that, of all NFL fans, it is the subset of those who like to get a little money down and those who like to accept that money who will benefit most from the later starts. "For years, sportsbook directors have been saying this was necessary," longtime Vegas reporter Dave Tuley told me last night. Added Lucky's Jimmy Vaccaro, "The 4:15 start had been getting tight. Now I don't think we will ever shut anyone out."
We talk a lot about wiseguys and their formulas and how they are the ones making lines move every football weekend. But they are not the ones creating more than $2 billion in sports wagering handle for Nevada and god knows how much nationwide. The sports betting economy is driven by the mid-level wiseguy wannabes running spread sheets while keeping an eye on their Bloomberg terminals. It is driven by penny players who bet on their favorite teams no matter what the spread. Mostly, these bettors are betting one game at a time for smaller stakes -- $20, $50, $100. And they don't make a decision about betting late games until they know how they did in the early games. Will they roll it over? Or will they chase? Funny how, if they win, the answer is never, "I'm going to call it a day, cash out and take the family to Chipotle for dinner."
One day, casual bettors will treat Sundays more logically. They will think about their gambling habits as entertainment, no different than buying a ticket to Disney, and plan to spend a certain amount on games, win or lose. They will walk up to a betting counter or sit down in front of their computer or tap their Ipads and know what their plan is for the day, not just for that moment. Gambling as part of the monthly budget, not an impulse buy. But chances are "bankroll" will not get a line item on Mint.com. That mentality is why there has always been a mad money scramble between games on NFL Sundays. But the problem is that -- especially in Vegas -- even when the timing is right, getting to the window after early games end, cashing a ticket and then getting money on a late game can be a down-to-the-wire experience.
According to the NFL, 44 games overlapped last season. But how many times did early games end five minutes before late games? Or seven minutes? Those ticks on the clock impact handle, too. In Vegas, one bookmaker told me he expects his handle to rise $3,000 per late game because of those ten extra minutes, roughly $21,000 per week. Another told me he thinks his could be as high as $10,000 a game, for a $70K increase in weekly handle. Before you discount these numbers, multiply them by a 17-week season. Then multiply them by the 184 sports books in Nevada. Even thinking conservatively, those turn into significant numbers. "It will help, there is no doubt. And since they are doing it, I'd like to see the league stagger the schedule even more," says Lucky's Jimmy Vaccaro. "Let's start some games at 10 am Vegas time and others at 11 am. And let's turn Monday Night's into a doubleheader every week."
Now, let's consider the online market. How many bets can be made in 600 seconds? How quickly and how many times can people flush with an extra $50 press a button? How many people chasing their last bad bet will put another $20 in play? Dave Mason, from Betonline, told me they expect a 20-25 percent increase in volume for the late games. But, truthfully, we will never know. Because all that money disappears into the unregulated, untaxed, ether.
But we do know this: Ten minutes is plenty of time to make something big happen.
Chad Millman
ESPN INSIDER
Ten minutes is a long time. Earthquakes come and go. Games are won and lost. Fortunes are earned and, just as quickly, they vanish. A lifetime's worth of experiences and emotions can happen in 600 seconds. Which is why the NFL's announcement yesterday that it was pushing back the late Sunday game start times 10 minutes, from a 4:15 est kickoff to 4:25, is such a gift for fans -- and a freaking boon for bettors and bookmakers.
In fact, if you ask bookmakers, which I did, they are -- shocker -- convinced that this is one more example of the NFL catering to the gambling community that it outwardly despises and would like to see permanently destroyed (at least until it can figure out how to monetize the whole thing). As one big-time sports book boss told me, "You think they are pushing back the start times because people really wanted to see more kickoffs? Ev
eryone knows that is the most exciting part of the game."
His point is that, of all NFL fans, it is the subset of those who like to get a little money down and those who like to accept that money who will benefit most from the later starts. "For years, sportsbook directors have been saying this was necessary," longtime Vegas reporter Dave Tuley told me last night. Added Lucky's Jimmy Vaccaro, "The 4:15 start had been getting tight. Now I don't think we will ever shut anyone out."
We talk a lot about wiseguys and their formulas and how they are the ones making lines move every football weekend. But they are not the ones creating more than $2 billion in sports wagering handle for Nevada and god knows how much nationwide. The sports betting economy is driven by the mid-level wiseguy wannabes running spread sheets while keeping an eye on their Bloomberg terminals. It is driven by penny players who bet on their favorite teams no matter what the spread. Mostly, these bettors are betting one game at a time for smaller stakes -- $20, $50, $100. And they don't make a decision about betting late games until they know how they did in the early games. Will they roll it over? Or will they chase? Funny how, if they win, the answer is never, "I'm going to call it a day, cash out and take the family to Chipotle for dinner."
One day, casual bettors will treat Sundays more logically. They will think about their gambling habits as entertainment, no different than buying a ticket to Disney, and plan to spend a certain amount on games, win or lose. They will walk up to a betting counter or sit down in front of their computer or tap their Ipads and know what their plan is for the day, not just for that moment. Gambling as part of the monthly budget, not an impulse buy. But chances are "bankroll" will not get a line item on Mint.com. That mentality is why there has always been a mad money scramble between games on NFL Sundays. But the problem is that -- especially in Vegas -- even when the timing is right, getting to the window after early games end, cashing a ticket and then getting money on a late game can be a down-to-the-wire experience.
According to the NFL, 44 games overlapped last season. But how many times did early games end five minutes before late games? Or seven minutes? Those ticks on the clock impact handle, too. In Vegas, one bookmaker told me he expects his handle to rise $3,000 per late game because of those ten extra minutes, roughly $21,000 per week. Another told me he thinks his could be as high as $10,000 a game, for a $70K increase in weekly handle. Before you discount these numbers, multiply them by a 17-week season. Then multiply them by the 184 sports books in Nevada. Even thinking conservatively, those turn into significant numbers. "It will help, there is no doubt. And since they are doing it, I'd like to see the league stagger the schedule even more," says Lucky's Jimmy Vaccaro. "Let's start some games at 10 am Vegas time and others at 11 am. And let's turn Monday Night's into a doubleheader every week."
Now, let's consider the online market. How many bets can be made in 600 seconds? How quickly and how many times can people flush with an extra $50 press a button? How many people chasing their last bad bet will put another $20 in play? Dave Mason, from Betonline, told me they expect a 20-25 percent increase in volume for the late games. But, truthfully, we will never know. Because all that money disappears into the unregulated, untaxed, ether.
But we do know this: Ten minutes is plenty of time to make something big happen.
