2012 MLB O/U Record: 201-193-18, -$1,273 (Been making bigger bets this year, with countless bad fluke bullpen breaks, obviously)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Wow, is it really the last day of June already? What a quick season this has been - Opening Day still feels like yesterday. The last day in June also virtually signifies that we’re at the halfway point of this very, very bizarre six-month-long 2012 Major League Baseball season, which is just incredibly hard to believe to me. In any case, it’s a very good and rewarding feel knowing I made it this far, from a WRITING perspective (Betting-wise, I took zero days off last year as well, and did this just about every day in 2010; most days in 2009, too, when I first started), as I’ve given all of you 1,000-word-plus articles each day throughout the whole year. There were times when I thought that would be a very difficult task to accomplish (Especially given the awful freak bad breaks I’ve had to deal withall year, while receiving almost NONE my way!), but now that I know I made it officially halfway, it should be that much easier to continue doing this every single day, and hey, I even have an all-star break to look forward to! In other words, I actually have a couple of days off coming up (Most likely, I will not be providing analysis concerning any all-star stuff lol; in my opinion, that has no business being on a gambler’s season record anyway. SAME with playoff games; it's a separate entity).
June was a fine month for me, considering how the first two months went after spoiling myself with the success I had a year ago, as I’m 64-56-8 entering this final day, which is a positive stepf orward and that’s all you look for when you’ve had such an up-and-down season - taking steps forward and putting yourself in position mentally to make that one huge incredible run over a significantly long period of time. At this point in time, I feel I’m close to it; I’ve certainly showed it in bunches, and having been good for most of this month (Other than a little rough patch in the middle), it definitely puts me in a good frame of mind, which is most important of all. Anyway, time to put June 2012 to rest with this Saturday slate, which actually features my third biggest bet of the year…
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim @ Toronto Blue Jays (Best Bet) - $209 for $200
Garrett Richards vs Henderson Alvarez
UNDER 10/10.5 ($156 for $150 on U10, $53 for $50 on U10.5)
Oh man do I love this pitching matchup on a Saturday afternoon in Toronto. Let me be the first to admit, though, that weekend afternoon games in Toronto have not treated me too kindly this year (Ex. Drabek vs Matusz under 9.5, one of my biggest bets of 2012, screwed by the bullpens despite being 2-1 in the 6th, specifically the horrendous Kevin Gregg, who was actually used incorrectly, pitching before the 7th inning for the first time since 2007, so I basically lost because of a great manager's terrible decision! Also, my Doubront vs Drabek under 10 a few Saturdays ago was screwed by terrible defense, which no one can predict, not to mention being on the receiving end of a dagger in the form of a ridiculous NICK PUNTO homerun in the NINTH… It’s still his only homerun of the year, and will probably be his only one, considering he’s had exactly one longball in each of the past four seasons! Come on, man!), but that was in the past and this is the present, where I’ve slowly been reverting back to form in June. I’m banking on this being the exclamation of my monthly performance, and now let me explain why.
First, let me begin with Garrett Richards, who made his first start of the year in the beginning of this month, which was my successful best bet under that I won a lot on, while also detailing how he was on the verge of becoming a successfully consistent starting pitcher. Four starts later and a microscopic 1.63 ERA, I think it’s safe to say I was 100-percent right on him. Richards has been nothing short of excellent, pumping out four quality outings in those starts, while the Angels have won each time he was on the mound. Richards was always talked highly of by the franchise, which, as we know, is one of the most intelligent organizations in the game, so that’s certainly a valuable opinion that helped encouraged my correct vibe towards the young right-hander. When Jered Weaver went on the DL, Richards finally received his long-awaited extended opportunity in the big leagues, and he’s completely run with it. In fact, when their rotation is fully healthy again, I’m not sure they can even send down Mr. Richards, who’s potential far, far exceeds that of the injured Jerome Williams. As long as Richards continues to be focused on the task at hand, as he has done in each of his starts thus far, he’ll put us in good shape, especially with a line that high.
The more difficult factor in all of this, as most would believe, involves the other pitcher in this matchup, that being the mercurial Henderson Alvarez. Let me tell you something about this kid, he caught my eye immediately towards the end of 2011 when he first arrived on the Major League scene, and I’m genuinely surprised by the slump he’s entered. As I watched him a couple of times after being called up last August, it became obvious who he reminded me of - Felix Hernandez. Ironically, shortly after that, he faced Hernandez’ Mariners, and it was in that game when Toronto’s announcers (I LOVE Buck Martinez, by the way) mentioned that Alvarez had idolized the aforementioned King. So, from that point on, as Alvarez continued to progress into a solid Major League starter, I began to pay attention to his development, since I was so fascinated by how he mimics his talented idol, and would say he made a very nice positive stride heading into the offseason. He’s a mature kid who seemingly knows what he’s doing in effort of trying to be a successful pitcher - after all, he displays the poise and body language of Felix Hernandez, who is as good a pitcher to copy as anybody - so that’s a large reason why I have confidence Alvarez can begin to turn it around. Yes, he has given up four runs or more in five of his past seven outings, but it’s not like this is a trend that has been going on all year. In fact, in his previous eight starts before this slump he’s currently in, Alvarez gave up more than three runs just once, and six of those starts saw him allow two runs or less. That’s impressive, and I believe that is more of the real Henderson Alvarez we’ll see, not just throughout the rest of this year, but for the bulk of his career. This is a talented kid, and while it is alarming that his strikeout numbers have dropped from last year (He’s only had more than three strikeouts in a start just once this year), I know he’s much better than his overall performance from these past seven outings, and today will mark when he begins to steer things back in the right direction. Both offenses have been hot in this series (Had the over on Thursday, remember), but that's a lot of runs to play with with two talented young pitchers going to work.
Other 6/30 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Jake Peavy vs Hiroki Kuroda UNDER 10 - $28 for $25
Johan Santana vs Nathan Eovaldi UNDER 7- $24 for $20
Josh Beckett vs Erasmo Ramirez OVER 7/7.5 (WAIT for the line to drop to 7, as this could be 5-2. I’m confident it will drop to 7)
Also: If you can get Jonathan Sanchez vs Scott Diamond over 9, rather than the unfortunately listed 9.5, go for it. Royals and Twins usually have higher scoring matchups, which could easily happen again with that pitching matchup. Sanchez clearly isn’t the same pitcher that he used to be, while as much as I correctly talked up Diamond before he entered the rotation, I think he’s on the way down from the glass ceiling he collided with. I won’t be taking this, though, with the line at 9.5.
**Will Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Wow, is it really the last day of June already? What a quick season this has been - Opening Day still feels like yesterday. The last day in June also virtually signifies that we’re at the halfway point of this very, very bizarre six-month-long 2012 Major League Baseball season, which is just incredibly hard to believe to me. In any case, it’s a very good and rewarding feel knowing I made it this far, from a WRITING perspective (Betting-wise, I took zero days off last year as well, and did this just about every day in 2010; most days in 2009, too, when I first started), as I’ve given all of you 1,000-word-plus articles each day throughout the whole year. There were times when I thought that would be a very difficult task to accomplish (Especially given the awful freak bad breaks I’ve had to deal withall year, while receiving almost NONE my way!), but now that I know I made it officially halfway, it should be that much easier to continue doing this every single day, and hey, I even have an all-star break to look forward to! In other words, I actually have a couple of days off coming up (Most likely, I will not be providing analysis concerning any all-star stuff lol; in my opinion, that has no business being on a gambler’s season record anyway. SAME with playoff games; it's a separate entity).
June was a fine month for me, considering how the first two months went after spoiling myself with the success I had a year ago, as I’m 64-56-8 entering this final day, which is a positive stepf orward and that’s all you look for when you’ve had such an up-and-down season - taking steps forward and putting yourself in position mentally to make that one huge incredible run over a significantly long period of time. At this point in time, I feel I’m close to it; I’ve certainly showed it in bunches, and having been good for most of this month (Other than a little rough patch in the middle), it definitely puts me in a good frame of mind, which is most important of all. Anyway, time to put June 2012 to rest with this Saturday slate, which actually features my third biggest bet of the year…
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim @ Toronto Blue Jays (Best Bet) - $209 for $200
Garrett Richards vs Henderson Alvarez
UNDER 10/10.5 ($156 for $150 on U10, $53 for $50 on U10.5)
Oh man do I love this pitching matchup on a Saturday afternoon in Toronto. Let me be the first to admit, though, that weekend afternoon games in Toronto have not treated me too kindly this year (Ex. Drabek vs Matusz under 9.5, one of my biggest bets of 2012, screwed by the bullpens despite being 2-1 in the 6th, specifically the horrendous Kevin Gregg, who was actually used incorrectly, pitching before the 7th inning for the first time since 2007, so I basically lost because of a great manager's terrible decision! Also, my Doubront vs Drabek under 10 a few Saturdays ago was screwed by terrible defense, which no one can predict, not to mention being on the receiving end of a dagger in the form of a ridiculous NICK PUNTO homerun in the NINTH… It’s still his only homerun of the year, and will probably be his only one, considering he’s had exactly one longball in each of the past four seasons! Come on, man!), but that was in the past and this is the present, where I’ve slowly been reverting back to form in June. I’m banking on this being the exclamation of my monthly performance, and now let me explain why.
First, let me begin with Garrett Richards, who made his first start of the year in the beginning of this month, which was my successful best bet under that I won a lot on, while also detailing how he was on the verge of becoming a successfully consistent starting pitcher. Four starts later and a microscopic 1.63 ERA, I think it’s safe to say I was 100-percent right on him. Richards has been nothing short of excellent, pumping out four quality outings in those starts, while the Angels have won each time he was on the mound. Richards was always talked highly of by the franchise, which, as we know, is one of the most intelligent organizations in the game, so that’s certainly a valuable opinion that helped encouraged my correct vibe towards the young right-hander. When Jered Weaver went on the DL, Richards finally received his long-awaited extended opportunity in the big leagues, and he’s completely run with it. In fact, when their rotation is fully healthy again, I’m not sure they can even send down Mr. Richards, who’s potential far, far exceeds that of the injured Jerome Williams. As long as Richards continues to be focused on the task at hand, as he has done in each of his starts thus far, he’ll put us in good shape, especially with a line that high.
The more difficult factor in all of this, as most would believe, involves the other pitcher in this matchup, that being the mercurial Henderson Alvarez. Let me tell you something about this kid, he caught my eye immediately towards the end of 2011 when he first arrived on the Major League scene, and I’m genuinely surprised by the slump he’s entered. As I watched him a couple of times after being called up last August, it became obvious who he reminded me of - Felix Hernandez. Ironically, shortly after that, he faced Hernandez’ Mariners, and it was in that game when Toronto’s announcers (I LOVE Buck Martinez, by the way) mentioned that Alvarez had idolized the aforementioned King. So, from that point on, as Alvarez continued to progress into a solid Major League starter, I began to pay attention to his development, since I was so fascinated by how he mimics his talented idol, and would say he made a very nice positive stride heading into the offseason. He’s a mature kid who seemingly knows what he’s doing in effort of trying to be a successful pitcher - after all, he displays the poise and body language of Felix Hernandez, who is as good a pitcher to copy as anybody - so that’s a large reason why I have confidence Alvarez can begin to turn it around. Yes, he has given up four runs or more in five of his past seven outings, but it’s not like this is a trend that has been going on all year. In fact, in his previous eight starts before this slump he’s currently in, Alvarez gave up more than three runs just once, and six of those starts saw him allow two runs or less. That’s impressive, and I believe that is more of the real Henderson Alvarez we’ll see, not just throughout the rest of this year, but for the bulk of his career. This is a talented kid, and while it is alarming that his strikeout numbers have dropped from last year (He’s only had more than three strikeouts in a start just once this year), I know he’s much better than his overall performance from these past seven outings, and today will mark when he begins to steer things back in the right direction. Both offenses have been hot in this series (Had the over on Thursday, remember), but that's a lot of runs to play with with two talented young pitchers going to work.
Other 6/30 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Jake Peavy vs Hiroki Kuroda UNDER 10 - $28 for $25
Johan Santana vs Nathan Eovaldi UNDER 7- $24 for $20
Josh Beckett vs Erasmo Ramirez OVER 7/7.5 (WAIT for the line to drop to 7, as this could be 5-2. I’m confident it will drop to 7)
Also: If you can get Jonathan Sanchez vs Scott Diamond over 9, rather than the unfortunately listed 9.5, go for it. Royals and Twins usually have higher scoring matchups, which could easily happen again with that pitching matchup. Sanchez clearly isn’t the same pitcher that he used to be, while as much as I correctly talked up Diamond before he entered the rotation, I think he’s on the way down from the glass ceiling he collided with. I won’t be taking this, though, with the line at 9.5.
**Will Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
