2012 MLB O/U Record: 203-198-18, -$1,552 (Been making bigger bets this year, with countless bad breaks, obviously)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Well, certainly a discouraging 2-5 day yesterday to wrap up June, especially since I really wasn’t given a fair opportunity in my best bet, which is always the case when you have a young pitcher on the mound making only his fifth or sixth start, only to see his top-ranked defense, which is supposed to be one of the best ones statistically AND coached, constantly let him down. I mean, without those five unearned runs in the second inning, it would’ve been a completely different game, especially with Henderson Alvarez giving me a very nice outing like I had called for. But, that’s the unfair risk you take with young pitchers, like I did with Garrett Richards, in being vulnerable to their mindset when things beyond their control don’t work out at all when they’re SUPPOSED to, such as the Peter Bourjos error (First of the year) when he dropped the linedrive hit right to him, which would’ve ended the inning and saved five runs! Enough dwelling on it, time to move on to the first day of July…
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Milwaukee Brewers (Best Bet) - $73 for $60
Josh Collmenter vs Yovani Gallardo
UNDER 9
I have mixed emotions when I see that Josh Collmenter is back as a fixture in the Arizona pitching rotation. There are some good feelings, as I loved tracking Collmenter’s unlikely emergence into becoming a very relevant pitcher in the National League - one that would even go on to have success in the playoffs on a national stage. There are bad feelings, too, as his return to the starting staff is only because of Daniel Hudson’s unfortunate injury that will require Tommy John surgery, which is a real shame because I always like Hudson and envisioned him as a future ace for many years after watching him dominate on a regular basis in each of the past two years. He was going to be a big name for awhile, but now, who knows what will happen with his career, as a lot of pitchers are never the same after under going such a procedure.
It is nice to see Collmenter back,though, as I always thought it was a crime when he was wrongfully pulled from his starting role. Yes, his ERA was over 9 when he began in the rotation throughout all of April, but that was only four starts; small slumps happen, especially in the beginning of the season when you’re getting the rust out of your system or dealing with unfavorable April weather. After all, this guy had extensive success as a rookie in 2011, posting a respectable 10 wins with a 3.38 ERA and 1.07 WHIP - and that’s in Arizona, where it’s much tougher when half of your starts occur in the hitter’s haven known as Chase Field. Collmenter looked really good in his two recent long appearances, including one start in which he filled in well for Joe Saunders with four solid six-strikeout innings against the Cubs, and now that he’s back in the rotation permanently, he’s in a good place mentally and I think he can come close to re-living his excellent freshman campaign, or at least in the beginning of this newfound opportunity, as he’s at least facing a team he’sv ery familiar with. In 2011, Collmenter was 2-0 in three starts against the Brew Crew with a 0.43 ERA (One run allowed in 21 innings!), 0.52 WHIP, and 16 Ks. Uh, that’s pretty good, and it includes his dominant NLDS Game 3 outing (7 IP, 2 hits, 2 walks, 1 run, 6 Ks). Good to see you back where you belong, Collmenter.
While Josh Collmenter has a terrific history stifling his opponent for today, Yovani Gallardo may have an evenb etter history against the team he’s set to pitch against on this Sunday. In fact, in six career starts versus the Diamondbacks, Gallardo is a perfect 6-0 (!) with a 1.21 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 37 Ks in 37 IP. In addition, his batting average allowed against them is a miniscule .192. The Brewers’ right-hander has continued that dominant tendency into this season, in which he has already poisoned the Snakes’ bats with a smooth seven-plus inning performance, striking out five and only yielding one run. Even better is the fact that Gallardo has gotten back into his groove ever since a troublesome April, as he’s allowed three runs or less in all but one of his past 11 starts. So, in other words, you have a guy who’s pitching at his best against a team he has completely owned historically throughout his entire career, facing another guy who also does his best work against today’s opponent, and has to be thrilled mentally and physically now that he’s back into the rotation after rousing success and confidence from 2011. Yeah, with nine runs to play with, the under is clearly the right play for this Sunday matchup.
Other 7/1 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Justin Masterson vs Brian Matusz UNDER 10 - $37 for $35 (I’ll bite on this one. I’ve been very good in tracking Masterson this year after I thought he was overrated from his great 2011 season, as I’ve been successful in picking spots for his good outings, which have shortened in 2012. Matusz, meanwhile, is someone I’ve always liked, and he’s shown he can be a good pitcher, albeit in flashes. Based on quotes I’ve read about him over the years, he’s very persistent, and when you’re regularly getting hit as he once was, that shows strong character. I like that he’s maintained his confidence no matter what and has contributed streaks of nice pitching. You can’t knock this kid down.)
Bronson Arroyo vs Ryan Vogelsong OVER 7- $23 for $20 (This matchup, to me at least, is all about dues getting paid. By that, I mean both pitchers are highly overdue for an off performance. Not only that, both teams are well overdue to get their offenses going in this series, as the first three games of this four-game set have seen the under hit easily in most cases. Trying to call for a 6-2 outcome in this one.)
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Well, certainly a discouraging 2-5 day yesterday to wrap up June, especially since I really wasn’t given a fair opportunity in my best bet, which is always the case when you have a young pitcher on the mound making only his fifth or sixth start, only to see his top-ranked defense, which is supposed to be one of the best ones statistically AND coached, constantly let him down. I mean, without those five unearned runs in the second inning, it would’ve been a completely different game, especially with Henderson Alvarez giving me a very nice outing like I had called for. But, that’s the unfair risk you take with young pitchers, like I did with Garrett Richards, in being vulnerable to their mindset when things beyond their control don’t work out at all when they’re SUPPOSED to, such as the Peter Bourjos error (First of the year) when he dropped the linedrive hit right to him, which would’ve ended the inning and saved five runs! Enough dwelling on it, time to move on to the first day of July…
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Milwaukee Brewers (Best Bet) - $73 for $60
Josh Collmenter vs Yovani Gallardo
UNDER 9
I have mixed emotions when I see that Josh Collmenter is back as a fixture in the Arizona pitching rotation. There are some good feelings, as I loved tracking Collmenter’s unlikely emergence into becoming a very relevant pitcher in the National League - one that would even go on to have success in the playoffs on a national stage. There are bad feelings, too, as his return to the starting staff is only because of Daniel Hudson’s unfortunate injury that will require Tommy John surgery, which is a real shame because I always like Hudson and envisioned him as a future ace for many years after watching him dominate on a regular basis in each of the past two years. He was going to be a big name for awhile, but now, who knows what will happen with his career, as a lot of pitchers are never the same after under going such a procedure.
It is nice to see Collmenter back,though, as I always thought it was a crime when he was wrongfully pulled from his starting role. Yes, his ERA was over 9 when he began in the rotation throughout all of April, but that was only four starts; small slumps happen, especially in the beginning of the season when you’re getting the rust out of your system or dealing with unfavorable April weather. After all, this guy had extensive success as a rookie in 2011, posting a respectable 10 wins with a 3.38 ERA and 1.07 WHIP - and that’s in Arizona, where it’s much tougher when half of your starts occur in the hitter’s haven known as Chase Field. Collmenter looked really good in his two recent long appearances, including one start in which he filled in well for Joe Saunders with four solid six-strikeout innings against the Cubs, and now that he’s back in the rotation permanently, he’s in a good place mentally and I think he can come close to re-living his excellent freshman campaign, or at least in the beginning of this newfound opportunity, as he’s at least facing a team he’sv ery familiar with. In 2011, Collmenter was 2-0 in three starts against the Brew Crew with a 0.43 ERA (One run allowed in 21 innings!), 0.52 WHIP, and 16 Ks. Uh, that’s pretty good, and it includes his dominant NLDS Game 3 outing (7 IP, 2 hits, 2 walks, 1 run, 6 Ks). Good to see you back where you belong, Collmenter.
While Josh Collmenter has a terrific history stifling his opponent for today, Yovani Gallardo may have an evenb etter history against the team he’s set to pitch against on this Sunday. In fact, in six career starts versus the Diamondbacks, Gallardo is a perfect 6-0 (!) with a 1.21 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 37 Ks in 37 IP. In addition, his batting average allowed against them is a miniscule .192. The Brewers’ right-hander has continued that dominant tendency into this season, in which he has already poisoned the Snakes’ bats with a smooth seven-plus inning performance, striking out five and only yielding one run. Even better is the fact that Gallardo has gotten back into his groove ever since a troublesome April, as he’s allowed three runs or less in all but one of his past 11 starts. So, in other words, you have a guy who’s pitching at his best against a team he has completely owned historically throughout his entire career, facing another guy who also does his best work against today’s opponent, and has to be thrilled mentally and physically now that he’s back into the rotation after rousing success and confidence from 2011. Yeah, with nine runs to play with, the under is clearly the right play for this Sunday matchup.
Other 7/1 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Justin Masterson vs Brian Matusz UNDER 10 - $37 for $35 (I’ll bite on this one. I’ve been very good in tracking Masterson this year after I thought he was overrated from his great 2011 season, as I’ve been successful in picking spots for his good outings, which have shortened in 2012. Matusz, meanwhile, is someone I’ve always liked, and he’s shown he can be a good pitcher, albeit in flashes. Based on quotes I’ve read about him over the years, he’s very persistent, and when you’re regularly getting hit as he once was, that shows strong character. I like that he’s maintained his confidence no matter what and has contributed streaks of nice pitching. You can’t knock this kid down.)
Bronson Arroyo vs Ryan Vogelsong OVER 7- $23 for $20 (This matchup, to me at least, is all about dues getting paid. By that, I mean both pitchers are highly overdue for an off performance. Not only that, both teams are well overdue to get their offenses going in this series, as the first three games of this four-game set have seen the under hit easily in most cases. Trying to call for a 6-2 outcome in this one.)
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
