2012 MLB O/U Record: 205-198-19, -$1,457 (Been making bigger bets this year, with countless bad breaks, obviously)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Okay, nice 2-0-1 day yesterday to help me bounce back from a frustrating Saturday (As in, frustrating that I wasn’t given a fair opportunity in my best bet Richards vs Alvarez under, since you can’t predict a defense will directly cause five unearned runs early with two outs. Luckily I recognized it was zero-percent my fault and put it behind me quickly). But, obviously, that means nothing if it’s only just one day, so here’s to this first Monday in July as I try to move forward in putting together an extensive run…
Houston Astros @ Pittsburgh Pirates (Best Bet) -$77 for $70
Jordan Lyles vs James McDonald
UNDER 7.5
If you’ve noticed that a lot of my best bets throughout the season have revolved around the Astros and/or Pirates, you have made a good observation, as that is no coincidence. The fact is, these are probably the two teams I know best (Arguably other than my own personal favorite team, the Rangers, who I’ve also always done very well with), each sporting a pitching staff full of guys that I have followed extremely closely in the recent past. One of such pitchers is obviously James McDonald, who, as I’ve been saying all year, is my second favorite player in baseball, especially after he has met my bold prediction when I said he’d develop into a top-tier pitcher years ago (And reminded all of you this in the beginning of the year, for those who newer readers who might doubt my longtime obsession with Mr.McDonald). Unfortunately, Tony La Russa apparently does not agree with that sentiment that he is indeed an upper echelon pitcher, as McDonald was curiously left off the all-star team, nor was he included in the “Final Vote.” I mean, what else was he supposed to do this year to qualify as an all-star? Turn a baseball into gold while performing on the mound? Apparently, leading a rotation completely unexpectedly into serious contention (And if you don’t believe the Pirates are serious contenders, despite their flameout last year, it’s time to start paying attention, my friend), while posting a marvelous 7-3 record with a 2.44 ERA, 0.98 WHIP (!), and an 86:26 K:BB ratio in 96 IP isn’t enough. Ugh, it pisses me off because this kid worked so hard into becoming what he is today - he’s ALWAYS had the stuff, even before he became to Pittsburgh - it was just a matter of putting it all together, throwing less pitches, and voila, McDonald was allowed to pitch deeper into ballgames (He only had one start last year where he went 7 IP), where he could make a much bigger impression, boosting his confidence in the process. Bottom line: JamesMcDonald is an ELITE pitcher, and that should continue here on this Monday night at home, especially facing a team he has done very well against over his career (6 starts, 37 IP, 2.68 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, .231 BAA, 36:15 K:BB ratio),including this year when he had that eight-inning, one-run start against my other top favorite pitcher, Bud Norris, in my absolute favorite matchup of 2012. The only thing I’m worried about is the potentially huuuuuuge variable ofbeing snubbed from an all-star team - it’s a unique trend that I want to gather up more info on as it pertains to pitchers like McDonald (How they perform in a start after the news of being snubbed), but I know J-Mac pretty well from following him over the years, and I think this won’t rattle him. He’ll come to work tonight just like it’s any other ballgame.
Then there is Jordan Lyles, who I admittedly did not know much about coming into this season, but over his past couple of starts in which I’ve profited off him, I’ve gotten to know him better as well. The main thing I’ve noticed about Lyles is this: He succeeds best when he’s rolling with confidence. Obviously, you can attach that to a lot ofpitchers, but it’s more so true with Lyles, as the most damage against him is when he’s pitching from the stretch, as he has an awful percentage of runners scoring when reaching base. When Lyles is able to limit that, he can be unhittable, as we saw this past month in a couple of starts against Kansas City (7 IP, 3H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 4 Ks) and Cincinnati (7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 3 Ks). At this point in time, I feel like Lyles has really hit his stride and is working in the best groove of his career, so it’d be wise to invest in that before the ship sails on him being dependable. It’ll be tricky getting a quality start out of him on the road, as most of his best work has come at home at Minute Maid Park, but I think it’s time for the 21-year old to bring his potentially good show with him on the road. PNC is a fine pitcher’s park, too. Only losing outcome I'm worried about is 5-3.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim @ Cleveland Indians - $77 for $65
Jered Weaver vs Ubaldo Jimenez
UNDER 8.5
It’s getting closer to gametime so onlya smaller write-up on this one. I’ll start with this one fact of life: If you have the chance to get an over/under with Jered Weaver in it at 8.5 or higher, it’s always a good bet, no matter even where the game is being held. I mean,this guy could be pitching my backyard and hold a team to two runs over seven innings. He’s just that remarkably consistent, and I’m surprised Vegas chose tohave the line up there, although it wasn’t for the whole day (I see it returned to 8). Still, even at 8, you put yourself in a very good chance to win or push with an amazingly dependable ace like Weaver. After all, in all but four of his 13 starts this year, the Angels’ bonafide ace has surrendered ONE RUN OR LESS, while two of the other four saw him give up three runs or less. Afraid he’s not the same since going on the DL? Well, his two starts since returning would prove completely otherwise, as he’s only given up one run in his 12.2 IP of work over those outings. I mean, the line being that high obviously has more to do with Ubaldo Jimenez, due to his wildness and inconsistency, but I think he’s still being underrated by Vegas. As I’ve written about, I used to think Ubaldo was highly overrated - his technique wouldn’t allow him to come close to continuing the tremendous pace he was on in 2010 - but I think he’s starting to become more of a constant again, especially over the past month with superb efforts that have dropped his ERA more than a full run. While he can be dominant, we don’t necessarily need that from him; we just need him to somewhat keep up with the great Jered Weaver, which should not be that difficult for him at all.
Other 7/2 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Homer Bailey vs Chad Billingsley OVER 7- $33 for $30
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Okay, nice 2-0-1 day yesterday to help me bounce back from a frustrating Saturday (As in, frustrating that I wasn’t given a fair opportunity in my best bet Richards vs Alvarez under, since you can’t predict a defense will directly cause five unearned runs early with two outs. Luckily I recognized it was zero-percent my fault and put it behind me quickly). But, obviously, that means nothing if it’s only just one day, so here’s to this first Monday in July as I try to move forward in putting together an extensive run…
Houston Astros @ Pittsburgh Pirates (Best Bet) -$77 for $70
Jordan Lyles vs James McDonald
UNDER 7.5
If you’ve noticed that a lot of my best bets throughout the season have revolved around the Astros and/or Pirates, you have made a good observation, as that is no coincidence. The fact is, these are probably the two teams I know best (Arguably other than my own personal favorite team, the Rangers, who I’ve also always done very well with), each sporting a pitching staff full of guys that I have followed extremely closely in the recent past. One of such pitchers is obviously James McDonald, who, as I’ve been saying all year, is my second favorite player in baseball, especially after he has met my bold prediction when I said he’d develop into a top-tier pitcher years ago (And reminded all of you this in the beginning of the year, for those who newer readers who might doubt my longtime obsession with Mr.McDonald). Unfortunately, Tony La Russa apparently does not agree with that sentiment that he is indeed an upper echelon pitcher, as McDonald was curiously left off the all-star team, nor was he included in the “Final Vote.” I mean, what else was he supposed to do this year to qualify as an all-star? Turn a baseball into gold while performing on the mound? Apparently, leading a rotation completely unexpectedly into serious contention (And if you don’t believe the Pirates are serious contenders, despite their flameout last year, it’s time to start paying attention, my friend), while posting a marvelous 7-3 record with a 2.44 ERA, 0.98 WHIP (!), and an 86:26 K:BB ratio in 96 IP isn’t enough. Ugh, it pisses me off because this kid worked so hard into becoming what he is today - he’s ALWAYS had the stuff, even before he became to Pittsburgh - it was just a matter of putting it all together, throwing less pitches, and voila, McDonald was allowed to pitch deeper into ballgames (He only had one start last year where he went 7 IP), where he could make a much bigger impression, boosting his confidence in the process. Bottom line: JamesMcDonald is an ELITE pitcher, and that should continue here on this Monday night at home, especially facing a team he has done very well against over his career (6 starts, 37 IP, 2.68 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, .231 BAA, 36:15 K:BB ratio),including this year when he had that eight-inning, one-run start against my other top favorite pitcher, Bud Norris, in my absolute favorite matchup of 2012. The only thing I’m worried about is the potentially huuuuuuge variable ofbeing snubbed from an all-star team - it’s a unique trend that I want to gather up more info on as it pertains to pitchers like McDonald (How they perform in a start after the news of being snubbed), but I know J-Mac pretty well from following him over the years, and I think this won’t rattle him. He’ll come to work tonight just like it’s any other ballgame.
Then there is Jordan Lyles, who I admittedly did not know much about coming into this season, but over his past couple of starts in which I’ve profited off him, I’ve gotten to know him better as well. The main thing I’ve noticed about Lyles is this: He succeeds best when he’s rolling with confidence. Obviously, you can attach that to a lot ofpitchers, but it’s more so true with Lyles, as the most damage against him is when he’s pitching from the stretch, as he has an awful percentage of runners scoring when reaching base. When Lyles is able to limit that, he can be unhittable, as we saw this past month in a couple of starts against Kansas City (7 IP, 3H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 4 Ks) and Cincinnati (7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 3 Ks). At this point in time, I feel like Lyles has really hit his stride and is working in the best groove of his career, so it’d be wise to invest in that before the ship sails on him being dependable. It’ll be tricky getting a quality start out of him on the road, as most of his best work has come at home at Minute Maid Park, but I think it’s time for the 21-year old to bring his potentially good show with him on the road. PNC is a fine pitcher’s park, too. Only losing outcome I'm worried about is 5-3.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim @ Cleveland Indians - $77 for $65
Jered Weaver vs Ubaldo Jimenez
UNDER 8.5
It’s getting closer to gametime so onlya smaller write-up on this one. I’ll start with this one fact of life: If you have the chance to get an over/under with Jered Weaver in it at 8.5 or higher, it’s always a good bet, no matter even where the game is being held. I mean,this guy could be pitching my backyard and hold a team to two runs over seven innings. He’s just that remarkably consistent, and I’m surprised Vegas chose tohave the line up there, although it wasn’t for the whole day (I see it returned to 8). Still, even at 8, you put yourself in a very good chance to win or push with an amazingly dependable ace like Weaver. After all, in all but four of his 13 starts this year, the Angels’ bonafide ace has surrendered ONE RUN OR LESS, while two of the other four saw him give up three runs or less. Afraid he’s not the same since going on the DL? Well, his two starts since returning would prove completely otherwise, as he’s only given up one run in his 12.2 IP of work over those outings. I mean, the line being that high obviously has more to do with Ubaldo Jimenez, due to his wildness and inconsistency, but I think he’s still being underrated by Vegas. As I’ve written about, I used to think Ubaldo was highly overrated - his technique wouldn’t allow him to come close to continuing the tremendous pace he was on in 2010 - but I think he’s starting to become more of a constant again, especially over the past month with superb efforts that have dropped his ERA more than a full run. While he can be dominant, we don’t necessarily need that from him; we just need him to somewhat keep up with the great Jered Weaver, which should not be that difficult for him at all.
Other 7/2 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Homer Bailey vs Chad Billingsley OVER 7- $33 for $30
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
