Tuesday: A Tough Card Today YTD: 218-179, + 66.5 units

ofred · Jul 3, 2012

Monday: 9-3, +8.2 units. This wipes out my weekend losses. Can't find much today to get excited about. Maybe I'll get inspired later in the day.

Pirates: -1 for one unit(on large side). Still going back to the Pirates, though this game doesn't have all the intangibles of Monday's game. But it gets down to one team that is struggling to score(Astros) vs. a team that is hitting everything. The Pirates just took Lyles apart in the 4th and 5th innings. And he was pitching pretty well in his last 2 starts. Now they face Lucas Harrell, who has pitched even better than Lyles in his last 2 starts. Granted, one game was against SD, but you have to be impressed with his lines. Harrell has been a very poor road pitcher. And the Bucs have been hitting everyone even quality pitchers- with power. Burnett has been incredible at home and 9-2. He shouldn't have too much trouble with this lineup. Pirates have BP advantage.

ofred · Jul 3, 2012

Cinn/ LAD- under 6.5 for one unit. I am not at all convinced that the Dodger are out of their hitting funk. Eventually a team "HAS" to score a few runs- like the proverbial blind squirrel will eventually find a nut. Now they face a very tough pitcher, Cueto, and I think the Dodgers might be lucky to get one run. Also, the Reds might be missing Votto again- Rolen and Cozart might also be out. Capuano has been every bit as good as Cueto and seems to love pitching in Dodger Stadium. Both of these starters are consistently good and give their teams 6-7 good innings almost every game. The Reds as a team also have not had one of their hitting explosions for some time. Both teams have good BPs.

Vallon · Jul 3, 2012

Cueto has been mouthing off about the All Star snub as well. This could bring additional motivation to show why he should be on the All Star.

varkeyboy · Jul 3, 2012

Fred,

Nice work yesterday and thank u for all the winners.

ofred · Jul 3, 2012

Cleveland: TT over 4.One unit. Not sure what McAllister will do, but Haren is absolutely not same pitcher. All those forkballs have taken their toll. His fastball is now about 87-89, and hitters are laying off his off speed stuff more- waiting on the fastball. Other than a great start against Seattle, Haren has been consistently getting hit. Strikeouts way down. 8 HRs in last 4 starts too. That means he is elevating his pitches or the forkball is hanging. 4 just seems like a good number. Indians have a up and down hitting attack, but very capable of putting 4-8 on the board.

Maris9 · Jul 3, 2012

Fred no Stanton or Hanley today for Miami. Looking at the team total under before the line adjusts.

moocow · Jul 3, 2012

Thanks for heads up Maris. I put in a marlins 1h bet earlier...baseballpress was still listing hanley and stanton in the lineup. Bought it back before move

Bee40 · Jul 3, 2012

o fred said:
Cinn/ LAD- under 6.5 for one unit. I am not at all convinced that the Dodger are out of their hitting funk. Eventually a team "HAS" to score a few runs.

Yeah, they aren't hitting yet. I've been taking LAD under TT ever since the Oakland series, gone like 12-2 so far. When they scored 8 runs the other day, 6 were unearned, so probably should have won that too. GL on the picks today.

winningBRASiL · Jul 3, 2012

In 5 career starts at Progressive Field (35 IP), Dan Haren is 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA, allowing 7 earned runs while striking out 34. In his lone start there this season, he went 8 innings in a win, striking out 7 and allowing just 1 run.

winningBRASiL · Jul 3, 2012

I like that TT o4, just wondering if i should chase.

ofred · Jul 3, 2012

winningBRASiL said:
In 5 career starts at Progressive Field (35 IP), Dan Haren is 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA, allowing 7 earned runs while striking out 34. In his lone start there this season, he went 8 innings in a win, striking out 7 and allowing just 1 run.

Dan Haren has been a No. 1 or 2 starter for most of his career, but going back over his last 10 starts, he is putting up numbers that defy his former pitching prowess. In his last 4 starts he's given up 20 ERs in 22 IPs. That's not like him. Something seems wrong and it could be physical. His career stats at Progressive are for when he was a much more effective pitcher(at least that's the premise of my play). You should see Jamie Moyer's stats in Seattle and other AL parks- but now he'd be a play against if he ever makes it back to the majors.

Sorry I missed the Brewers game. Hope you hit it.

ofred · Jul 3, 2012

Washington: ML. one unit. Zimmerman has been definitely tested. He pitched in Coors, in Fenway, vs. NYY in 3 out of last 4 starts. He rarely gives up a big inning, unlike Lincecum. Lincecum has given up a lot of big innings, and I am not that impressed with his recent start vs. the LA Pee Wees. He also has more quality starts at home, and very few on the road. Lincecum also has problems out of the stretch with base runners that often lead to his big innings. Nats have played a very tough schedule in the past month, while the Giants have not. Giants BP has been getting hit lately, while Nats remains steady. It's hot in DC and that is also something the Nats are used to.

NYY: Why didn't I take this last night when it was + money? Duh. The Rays won last night with an outstanding young pitcher, their future ace. The Yankees nearly won with freaking Freddy Garcia. The Rays only left 3 on base, and benefitted from Texeira's fielding mistake. Tonight, with the Yanks having the pitching edge, they should win. Shields has been serving up middle of there plate meatballs this year, as he did 2 years ago. In his last 37.2 IPs, 51 hits and 20 runs. Nova just wins. Also, the Rays are slumping- I'd be surprised to see them blast out tonight.

Ttratter · Jul 3, 2012

Haren loves to face the Indians and he loves pitching in Cleveland as well, as he has posted a 4-2 record with a respectable 3.31 ERA against the Indians lifetime, including a nice outing against them already this season, allowing only 1 R, 4 H and 2 BB in 8 innings of work, as he won 2-1 at Jacobs Field in his last start in April. He too has been dominant at Jacobs Field in his career, posting a perfect 3-0 record with a miniscule 1.80 ERA through 5 starts there lifetime.

Catchn_Flops · Jul 3, 2012

Damn, couldn't catch the Nat play posted just before the game went off. Oh well, I will still be rooting for you and anyone who caught it.

I am playing the NYY game as 1 unit ML. That is usually what you do when the play is a small fav.

BOL tonight to you and all.

Thanks again Fred...happy holiday all.

ofred · Jul 3, 2012

I can see that there's some disagreement about how well Haren will do tonight. Someone will have bragging rights.

NYY (one unit)

STL. TT over 5. One unit. Fade if you want. I am going against the notion that Jeff Francis is going to have his 4th consecutive good start. Over his last 3 years in the mlb, batters have hit over .300 against him. That's a big sample. The Cards are hitting .278 vs. lefties, and lead the majors in OPS and slugging vs. lefties. Combine that with a mediocre Rockies BP, and I'll take my chances. Cards had a lull in their hitting before this series, but it's very possible they'll get going again against Colorado's pitching.

Catchn_Flops · Jul 3, 2012

"STL. TT over 5. One unit. Fade if you want."

It will be a cold day in hell when I decide to fade you.

we$$$we$$$

ofred · Jul 3, 2012

KC. TT over 4.5. one unit. If Mazzaro wasn't pitching, this would be a good underdog play. With him, you never know what you'll get. The Royals are a good road team as evidenced from last night. They have won 5 of 7 and are hitting well up and down their lineup. They will try to stack as many righties as they can against lefty Cecil. Cecil, by the way, is up because of the dire shortage of starters for the Blue Jays. he didn't pitch very well in the minors, his fastball is now 86-88 and has had HR issues- 5 HRs in his last 16 innings. Sorry for the late post.

PatsFanatic · Jul 3, 2012

sportsforumVIP · Jul 3, 2012

Maris9 said:
Fred no Stanton or Hanley today for Miami. Looking at the team total under before the line adjusts.

No disrespect but this is a mistake that most novice gamblers make. 2 of their power hitters were out but teams do have other pro's that fill in just fine. Never use the reason you stated solely to make a play. BOL to you.

PatsFanatic · Jul 3, 2012

Good luck tonight fred. Your killing it.

Tuesday: A Tough Card Today YTD: 218-179, + 66.5 units

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