The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - July 3, 2012 - YTD: 207-200-19

2012 MLB O/U Record: 207-200-19, -$1,458 (Been making bigger bets this year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104

Nothing really of note yesterday, as I went 2-2 and split both best bets while finishing up even. As a result, I was anticipating doing some damage on this Tuesday evening, but surprisingly, there’s not much potential on the card as it pertains to over/unders. Let’s see what I have on tap…


Houston Astros @ Pittsburgh Pirates (Best Bet) - $55 for $50
Lucas Harrell vs AJ Burnett
UNDER 7.5

Yes, I’m staying in Pittsburgh, just as I did last night, for tonight’s best bet, and while I lost that one from anight ago, I was still 100-percent right with the pitcher that I continue to produce with and know well (James McDonald), while losing because of the newer guy on the scene who apparently is not all that dependable yet (Jordan Lyles). Tonight, however, should be a different story, as this Astros/Pirates series features a much more reliable pitching matchup.

Let me start with the much more unknown factor, at least unfortunately to the general consensus, that being Lucas Harrell, who is actually doing quite well for himself in his first full season starting. For those newer readers of mine who happen to catch this write-up, I’ve been praising Harrell all year, as he’s actually become one of my favorite pitchers in 2012. There’s a lot of reasoning behind it, as this is someone who is still being mostly underrated by Vegas, yet continues to contribute solid pitching for the Astros. In fact, Harrell pumped out his first career shutout in his last start in a best bet under of mine against Clayton Richard - following a brilliant seven-inning, one-run, two-hit, nine-strikeout outing versus the Indians - leading me to believe that thef ormer White Sox farmhand has entered the best groove of his entire career. That says something, because as I’ve been pointing out all season, this is someone who was once a top prospect. It’s clear he’s been in the process of finally putting it all together, which shouldn’t be all that surprising because this is someone who had great minor league numbers once upon a time. Finally, he’s received an extended look in the big leagues, and at this point in time, he’s running with that opportunity. The only unfortunate factor, at least as it pertains to Mr. Harrell, is that he’s been much better at home than on the road this year, but I think that’s a trend that will begin to average off. When you’repitching as well as he’s been lately, it doesn’t matter where his assignment is set to take place; he’s in a top rhythm right now and can continue that against the Pirates for six or possibly seven innings.

Opposing him will be the much more consistent and reliable AJ Burnett, who just continues to wow the baseball world. Like Harrell, though, it really shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone (I,for one, predicted his emergence in 2012, getting away from the mostly moronic fans of New York that completely buried him throughout his Yankees’ tenure), as Burnett has always had terrific stuff, and pitching in pressure-free Pittsburgh (Although the pressure will be building as they continue to contend legitimately) has done wonders for putting him back on the map of relevancy. Burnett is such in a rhythm right now that he’s gone ten straight starts while giving up three runs or less, and eight of those have only seen him yield two runs or less. His strikeout numbers also remain high, while limiting the long balls hit against him, and it’s all added up to a very dominant game-plan from the right-hander. Burnett has already owned the Astros once this year at home - when he gave up only two runs and six hits over eight innings back on May 13 -and since he hasn’t let up since then, you’ve got to believe he gives us something similar to that in effort of securing an under. It’s a matchup of two guys in their groove right now, so hopefully one doesn’t let up and they put us in a good position to win at PNC Park on this Tuesday night in early July.


Other 7/3 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Dan Haren vs Zach McAllister OVER 9 -$22 for $20


**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**

Added another $11 for $10 on Haren vs McAllister over 9

Adding Cashner vs Bauer under 9, $18 for $15

STRONG Law of Averages alert...

Every game so far has seen the over hit tonight (Except for Rockies/Cardinals, but that can still hit). THEREFORE, it is much more likely that the majority of the four games left will see the UNDER hit; it's about as close to a guarantee as you can get. The odds of EVERY over hitting in one night are just as slim as winning a $166 million lottery (It's NEVER happened before), so if you'd like to borrow my Law of Averages strategy, go for it and you are pretty much assured of making money.

The probability of it happening are long.
The odds are the same as always.
There is no law of averages after the first games are over....the odds remain the same.

Coaster said:

The probability of it happening are long.
The odds are the same as always.
There is no law of averages after the first games are over....the odds remain the same.

Click to expand...

this is true from a mathematical perspective. the odds dont variate based off games played elsewhere...but you kinda have to think its not gonna happen, lol, however I dont think Tor game went over

Coaster said:

The probability of it happening are long.
The odds are the same as always.
There is no law of averages after the first games are over....the odds remain the same.

Click to expand...

To an extent, I agree. The odds are "the same as always," since in actuality, a game(s) that happens across the country has absolutely no bearing on a game that occurs thousands of miles away from it. BUT, this is a trend I've NOTICED CONSIDERABLY to turn out true plenty of times. Here's an example:

There was an instance in 2010 where one day, every single game had NO run in the first inning. The odds of that are astronomical (It wasn't a full 15-game slate, but for that to happen in the 10-12 games that day is still unbelievtable)... but, there was one night game left - the Nationals at Colorado. As a result, I bet a lot that there WOULD be a run in the first inning (It was a game with John Lannan pitching; I forget who started for Colorado), and I won rather easily, as a run was almost scored right away.

There have been countless instances, similar to tonight, where a large portion of the night featured a very, very sharp majority of overs or unders that hit. Thus, it is much more likely (Not guaranteed, but still very good in your favor) that the opposite will occur the majority of the time, if not exactly the same. I ASSURE you this is a fact. How do I know? I'm probably one of the few people that pays attention to silly things like this. And I continue to pay attention to it because there's a sharp percentage of it working. If you tracked it, in the rare times it occurs, you'll be surprised. Because it continues to mostly work. Odds and percentages in the Law of Averages is just something we can't escape in human nature.

And as you see, most of the unders are well on pace to hit here tonight. Of course, the games aren't over yet and there's still plenty of time, but I'd guarantee at least two or three of the four unders hits. AT LEAST two or three.

If I can add to my Law of Averages theory, let me point out it doesn't only apply to over/unders and first-inning run bets. Take a look at the first 11 games tonight, prior to these late games, and note how many home teams won today - 9 of 11 won.

Now, with four games remaining on the evening, the road team is winning all four affairs as of this writing. The Law of Averages obviously doesn't indicate that every road team will win the rest of the slate, but it does strongly suggest that it is significantly more likely that at least two or three out of the four road teams will secure a road victory, meaning you'd at least gain a wash at the very least, if not making a solid amount of money, which is more likely in said scenario.

To those who doubt the Law of Averages, because of the odds "always remaining the same" no matter what," that's perfectly acceptable. I don't blame you whatsoever. My own personal friends will make fun of it as well. But if you pay attention to the results it churns out, I guarantee you'd be quite surprised. And once again, it's working in every aspect possible. I, of course, am not surprised at all. It's a more powerful Law than you think that human nature cannot escape.