Wednesday: Independence Day 3 Unit Play YTD: 221-184, +64.4 units

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Tuesday: 3-5, -2.1 units. It was a tough card on Tuesday. Should have quit after my first 4 or 5 plays. Most foolish was the Arizona/ SD under. Bauer did not have enough mlb experience to really assess what he would do in that game. To put one unit on that = to some of the solid one unit plays was stupid.

Angels. ML (-111). 3 units. This price won't last. Santana had one bad inning against good hitting Toronto or that might have been a quality start. Looking back over the years, once he gets into his summer groove, he almost never has 2 bad outings in a row. In fact, in his last 31 IPs against Cleveland, he has only given up 7 runs (including a no hitter last year). Contrast that with Derek Lowe, who has been getting creamed in his last 37 innings(good sized sample). 36 runs and almost an equal amount of walks and Ks. He was looking washed up in the NL last year, and now we can see it happening in the much tougher AL. Velocity down, sinker not fooling anyone. Also, I've noticed the Indians in the last many weeks: When facing a mediocre pitcher, they can hit in bunches, but when facing a tough pitcher, they can completely shut down. With their lineup, they are lucky to be hitting around .500. How much longer can they go with Johnny Damon, Kotchman, Cunningham, Duncan….. Even their best hitters are not true 3-4-5 guys. The Angels will get Trout back and have a dynamic lineup that hit very well on this East Coast swing. Both BPs about equal. I also want to put a plug in for Angel manager Mike Scioscia, who has his players running aggressively and playing smart.
 

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Angels. -1/2 first 5 innings. one unit. Manny Acta does not get the same respect from his players, and seems kind of lethargic out there.
 

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Pirates: TT over 4.5 or 5? 3 units. The Pirates have so many hot hitters. I'm not sure anyone can get McCutcheon out these days. They got to Harrell after struggling a bit, destroyed Lyles, and going back to their Phillies series have been hotter than the Yankees, Cards, Angels or anyone else I can think of. They are enjoying this home stand and don't want to lose their momentum. Pirate fans are getting into it and I expect a good crowd Wednesday. Their manager Clint Hurdle had enough of Tabata's laziness and sent him packing to AAA, improving team morale. Dallas Keuchel has been surprisingly good since his call up. He was pretty mediocre in AAA and he didn't have any big run of good starts there. Now he faces the hottest hitting team in the majors. Keuchel has to be very fine with keeping the ball low, and now that he has a body of work, and the Pirates have some scouting reports, I expect some serious scoring Wednesday. I would take the Pirates -1 but Correia is getting by on fumes and bailing wire. If he pitches poorly, the over could be a great play.
 

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O Fred, someone mentioned you to me recently so i'm going to jump on for the ride starting today. I apologize in advance for any mush i may cause.

I just got some angels at -109 and I really like this pirates tt bet you have going...they are hot right now

GL buddy!
 

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Wish I had the confidence to bet 3 units on LAA today, but I do like them to win, mainly because they haven't lost a series in a month. If Santana is shaky, hopefully they provide enough offense to overcome. I like NYM tomorrow too for + money at home, against a guy who hasn't won a game in his last 13 starts. This line seems purely based on Cliff Lee's reputation. Mets -1/2 1H might be good too, Chris Young has one of the lowest BAA in the league in the first 5 innings.
 

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Based upon your Bucs write up Fred, if Pitt is going to score and Correia has a good shot at being knocked out early, maybe the game over play has merit. Especially while it is still 8.5 (albeit juicing higher...prob close at 9). Picking up a key number like O 9 could be valuable? Just a thought.

BOL everyone.
 

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Great job this season. Love the write-ups and your knowledge of the sport.
 

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What do u mean get Trout back? Was he out or something? He did play last night.
 

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Tuesday: 3-5, -2.1 units. It was a tough card on Tuesday. Should have quit after my first 4 or 5 plays. Most foolish was the Arizona/ SD under. Bauer did not have enough mlb experience to really assess what he would do in that game. To put one unit on that = to some of the solid one unit plays was stupid.

Angels. ML (-111). 3 units. This price won't last. Santana had one bad inning against good hitting Toronto or that might have been a quality start. Looking back over the years, once he gets into his summer groove, he almost never has 2 bad outings in a row. In fact, in his last 31 IPs against Cleveland, he has only given up 7 runs (including a no hitter last year). Contrast that with Derek Lowe, who has been getting creamed in his last 37 innings(good sized sample). 36 runs and almost an equal amount of walks and Ks. He was looking washed up in the NL last year, and now we can see it happening in the much tougher AL. Velocity down, sinker not fooling anyone. Also, I've noticed the Indians in the last many weeks: When facing a mediocre pitcher, they can hit in bunches, but when facing a tough pitcher, they can completely shut down. With their lineup, they are lucky to be hitting around .500. How much longer can they go with Johnny Damon, Kotchman, Cunningham, Duncan….. Even their best hitters are not true 3-4-5 guys. The Angels will get Trout back and have a dynamic lineup that hit very well on this East Coast swing. Both BPs about equal. I also want to put a plug in for Angel manager Mike Scioscia, who has his players running aggressively and playing smart.

Not pointing fingers, but why do people always say "This Price Won't last". Actually the price has gotten better. Not picking o fred just saying.
 

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Angels. -1/2 first 5 innings. one unit. Manny Acta does not get the same respect from his players, and seems kind of lethargic out there.

Take this one at the ML if you haven't already bet it.
 

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Not pointing fingers, but why do people always say "This Price Won't last". Actually the price has gotten better. Not picking o fred just saying.

Having followed Fred for most of the season so far, I can say that the lines of the majority of his plays get worse from the opening number and throughout the day. I have lost many opening number if I wait until the morning or later. LAA is a bit weird as I've noticed that other respected cappers have picked it too. I think these things are best judged in the aggregate rather than one at a time.

GL
 

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