The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - July 4, 2012 - YTD: 208-202-19

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2012 MLB O/U Record: 208-202-19, -$1,501 (Been making bigger bets this year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104

Happy 4th of July, everyone. I’m coming off a 1-2 day yesterday so I’m in no holiday mood just yet. That being said, let’s move on to today’s card, which can be very tricky, being that this is one of the few national holidays that take place annually during the Major League Baseball season. If you don’t think that’s a variable, you really need to refine your betting technique on days such as this, as players are regular people just like us who potentially feel emotions when approaching holidays of this caliber. As a result, it’s best to lay low a bit, unless you feel really strongly about a game. Let’s see what there is today…


(Posting this early because I have the 11 AM game. Detailed write-ups and additional analysis will be posted as the day rolls on)


Madison Bumgarner vs Edwin Jackson UNDER 7.5 - $20 for $20
This one is intriguing. The pitching matchup looks academic - two good pitchers who are usually consistent - but the thing that strikes me the most is the unusual start time for this affair, that being 11 AM (EST). I don’t think most bettors realize the significance of that… there hasn’t been a game that has started this early in the morning in many years (The Red Sox play an 11:35 AM game once a year), let alone on the fourth of July, and it’s especially unique when it involves a west coast team like the Giants, who are essentially set to go up at bat at 8 in the morning (Pacific time), AND this comes after a routine night game, so it’s not like they got any more than the average amount of sleep. I can’t see this Giants lineup being in top form, at least early on, and I believe that is something a veteran like Edwin Jackson can capitalize on as long as he throws strikes, which he usually does. As for Madison Bumgarner, as I alluded to, he’s been mostly consistent this year, let alone his whole career thus far, so hopefully he gives us one of his usual efforts.


Will be back in a bit. I’ve got my eye on that Keuchel vs Correia matchup from the 1 o’clock pickings.
 

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Just a suggestion my friend......u have to start playing more OVERs! I'm on the OVER 7 (-135) in Giants/Nats. Already a push for me and they're just about to start the 4th inning.

As the weather gets warmer and warmer all across the country, the bats get hotter and balls fly deeper.

This is an OVER type of MLB season......
 
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This is an OVER type of MLB season......

You are absolutely right. As you know, I started doing this in 2009, and every season since has easily been an under's type season, especially the past couple of years ("The Year of the Pitcher"), so perhaps I've gotten too comfortable with relying on unders
 

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Just a suggestion my friend......u have to start playing more OVERs! I'm on the OVER 7 (-135) in Giants/Nats. Already a push for me and they're just about to start the 4th inning.

As the weather gets warmer and warmer all across the country, the bats get hotter and balls fly deeper.

This is an OVER type of MLB season......

It turned into a HR Derby in Washington
 
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Just a suggestion my friend......u have to start playing more OVERs! I'm on the OVER 7 (-135) in Giants/Nats. Already a push for me and they're just about to start the 4th inning.

As the weather gets warmer and warmer all across the country, the bats get hotter and balls fly deeper.

This is an OVER type of MLB season......

You are absolutely right. As you know, I started doing this in 2009, and every season since has easily been an under's type season, especially the past couple of years ("The Year of the Pitcher"), so perhaps I've gotten too comfortable with relying on unders
Their are plenty of unders to choose from each day. Today I am ON the ChiC/ATL under. You have to trust your handicapping and pick the correct spots the best you can without forcing action.
 
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Their are plenty of unders to choose from each day. Today I am ON the ChiC/ATL under. You have to trust your handicapping and pick the correct spots the best you can without forcing action.

Oh believe me, I know this as well as anyone, which is why I'm not altering my method whatsoever. This goes for EVERY form of betting.

After all, in my opinion, the golden rule No. 1 of betting is Never Force A Bet. I've been preaching that since I got into this. Mentality is everything, it really is.
 
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This one might end up being my biggest bet of the day, not sure of my gameplan for the rest of this 4th of July but here it is...


Dallas Keuchel vs Kevin Correia UNDER 8.5 - $40 for $42
Keuchel really has been very solid since making his Major League debut and I think he can continue that against a team that isn't all that good against southpaws (Other than Andrew McCutchen, of course), nor have they seen him yet. Keuchel comes off as one of those guys who can overachieve early on in his career before teams get more film on him. Correia, meanwhile, can be a mixed bag, but I've been good with him during his tenure as a Pirate these past couple of years, and considering I usually have an over vibe on one of his starts, I'll trust me instinct here concerning him being involved in this potential under.
 
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off the board already though

Yeah, my apologies on only posting it two minutes before first pitch. 4th of July festivities :)

I'll have more, though, as the day rolls on, and hopefully this one hits to restore my confidence throughout the rest of this evening after that 11 AM clunker
 

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LOL, no worries Cat. Gl on the rest of your day and I hope you have a GREAT holiday :)
 
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Darn, I wish you better luck in the future bud. Get on my 2 picks for today and maybe I can help you get back on track and get your cash back from your first 2 picks.

BOL
 

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