The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - July 5, 2012 - YTD: 208-205-19

2012 MLB O/U Record: 208-205-19, -$1,583 (Been making bigger bets this year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104

Well, it’s clear I’ve entered some sort of mini slump, but the important thing is recognizing it, because it happens to everyone when you bet literally every single day of the entire six-month season. That's 180 straight days of betting (Not even including playoffs)! Luckily, when I went over the matchups for today for hours last night, just as I have done every single night this entire season (Plus the several hours I spend on these same matchups the day of them), I actually felt really good vibes from the slate, so that’s a very good sign, meaning I wasn't thinking about my recent struggles. Hopefully this Thursday gets me back on track…


(Posting this now because I have work early, so just getting this up, as I have one of the early games. I’ll actually have much bigger bets in the later action with more detailed analysis, of course)


Mark Buehrle vs Michael Fiers UNDER 9 -$20 for $21
There’s a lot to like about this one. On one side, you have the usually dependable Mark Buehrle, who is once again having a nice season, posting a 7-8 record with a 3.48 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. The thing I’ve always admired about Buehrle, even though I’m personally not a fano f him, is that he makes you beat him. After all, his walks are always miniscule, and the same applies this year when he’s walked just 15. It also helps that he eats up a lot of innings so when it pertains to an under, you mostly know what you’re getting in a Mark Buehrle start, without having to worry about a potential bullpen blunder (Which has been the absolute theme of this 2012 season, as you should all know by now). On the other side is the surprisingly bright young right-hander Michael Fiers, who is out to an outstanding start in his Major League career. Fiers has made six starts thus far, and four of them have seen him surrender only one run or less! Over his last two starts, he’s given up one run in 13 innings, while striking out a remarkable 17 batters (And walking just four in the process). Yes, the Law of Averages dictates that Fiers will not continue that, but being in a game with a line as high as 9, there is margin for error,so if he gives up three or four, which would match his career high, as long as Buehrle churns out his usual solid effort, we’ll be in a very good position to win this under.


**Will Add More Over/Unders Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
(Best Bet looks like it’s going to be Bud Norris vs Jeff Karstens under 8.5/9. I will be THRILLED if that line goes to 9, which means Vegas is highly underrating both quality starters - ignore their current stats. Also hoping Mat Latos vs Edinson Volquez under goes up to 7)

I also may take Harrison vs Quintana OVER 10. Although I would rank both of these guys in my top 20 favorite pitchers, as I've mentioned in great detail before how I like both of these hurlers, even I will admit that both are pitching welllll above their talent level and are due to get hit. We saw Quintana get hit pretty hard at Yankee Stadium, so most likely, that was the sound of him hitting his glass ceiling and is on the way down a bit. Meanwhile, Harrison historically has gone on extended streaks of excellent pitching (Such as through April before crashing back down), before he started getting hit hard for a little while. That's the book on Matt Harrison. Therefore, it seems like a very likely spot for both starters to have an off start. I'll let you guys know if I take any action on it but I do recommend it.

Okay, good start to this Thursday with that Buehrle vs Fiers under, and thankfully laying off Harrison vs Quintana. Here's the rest of tonight's card...


Houston Astros @ Pittsburgh Pirates (Best Bet) - $130 for $120
Bud Norris vs Jeff Karstens
UNDER 8.5/9 ($20 for $20 on U8.5, $110 for $100 onU9)

Well, I didn’t expect it, but I’ll take it. Of course, I’m referring to the line somewhat surprisingly moving up to nine for what could easily be a fabulous pitching matchup on this Thursday evening. I’ll start with - who else? - my favorite pitcher in all of baseball, not to mention the guy I know better than anybody and that I am constantly right about, that of course being the woefully underrated Bud Norris. Yes, his stats are far from the greatest at this point in time (5-5, 4.90 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 82 Ks in 79 IP), but if you actually know baseball, you know he’s a lot better than that, with a ceiling higher than most. Plus, his stats are a little skewed in the wrong direction after a disastrous start in Colorado (1.2 IP, 9 runs) on the final day in May, which can happen to anyone (Even Clayton Kershaw had an outing where he yielded five runs at Coors). That being said, do not, and I repeat, do not confuse Bud Norris for some scrub pitcher because boy, he is farrr from it. I know I obviously have a little bias towards Mr. Norris, as there is seemingly a lovefest for him in my articles almost every five days, but that’s because he’s really good - just as he even showed against these same Pirates in one of his finest starts of 2012, when he fired six shutout innings of three-hit ball, while striking out eight. And that was at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, the site of tonight’s ballgame. It doesn’t stop there, though, as Norris has a very good track record against the Buccos, registering a 3.60 ERAin nine career starts versus them, while striking out an impressive 65 in just 55 innings. The *only* thing I’m worried about concerning Bud Norris heading into this start is his unusual low number of strikeouts in his last start (Only 1 in 6 innings at Wrigley; That’s not normal at all for him), but overall, he was mostly good, only making a couple of mistakes that led to three home runs being allowed, but that happens at Wrigley. Without those legendary swirling winds, which he won’t have to deal with in more of a pitcher’s park like PNC tonight, he churns out an excellent start, which is what I expect out of him tonight. Bud Norris will continue to showcase his tremendous pitching.

Opposing him is probably the more difficult factor we have to deal with, Jeff Karstens, but that is not to take away from his ability at all. You see, Karstens has always been an underrated pitcher - ever since his days as a Yankee farmhand. Even last year, when the righty went 9-9 with a more-than-respectable 3.38 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, nobody really has talked up Karstens as being a potential fixture on this strong contending Pirates’ pitching staff. This year, it’s easy to think that, as Karstens was sidelined for awhile via injury, and is only 1-2 with a 5.25 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. However, I assure you he is better than that, as he showed only a season ago, and as he also put on display in his last start, when he went INTO St. Louis (!) and held them to two runs and four hits over seven terrific innings, while striking out seven in the process. That’s an impressive feat that proves Karstens has something left in the tank, and I do not see how he gains a major momentum boost from that, in effort of returning to his old Major League form, something he’s only showed in bits and pieces this year while dealing with his injury in the first month of the season. Most importantly, Karstens was actually my *best* pitcher in all of baseball to bet on last year, when I was an improbable 10-0 with him in 2011 in over/unders, which I didn’t even realize until the very end of the season (A lot of times, your best tendencies as a bettor are the ones you don't even notice. Thinking about a personal trend will get into your head and mess you up) when I calculated my record with each pitcher and team. While I lost that undefeated run with him earlier this season (I’m 1-1 with him in 2012), I was actually still right about him in that over 7 against the Dodgers on April 12 (5 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 1 BB) that I "lost," as it was a brilliant outing from Chris Capuano (Before his renaissance season this year became well known) that cost me my perfect record in regards to Karstens. After his last start, I believe Karstens can roll with his newfound confidence, as he seeks to prove that he belongs in the Pirates rotation, while making a considerable effort in helping them continue to contend in this 2012 season. Yes, the first three games of this four-game series have seen the over hit, but not only does the Law of Average dictate that the fourth will not as well, it’s just common baseball knowledge. These are two teams that aren’t two of the more superior offenses in the National League, especially over these past few years when they’ve contributed A LOT more unders than overs, so that is also something to examine when analyzing this matchup. In other words, it’s more unlikely that these two produce an entire four-game series of just overs, let alone in a pitcher's park. Maybe it’s me living in the past (Which is possible, as I continue to have 2011 on my mind), which I admit I can do often, but at the end of the day, it’s the Pirates and the Astros. Four straight games of overs? That’ll be tough to pull off at PNC Park, specifically in this one with two good solid pitchers and a line that high. Under it is.


Other7/5 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Mat Latos vs Edinson Volquez UNDER 6.5 -$41 for $35 (May add a write-up for this one. Fascinating matchup of two guys facing their longtime old teams. Love Latos returning to SD)
Jake Arrieta vs Garrett Richards OVER 8.5 - $19 for $15
Cole Hamels vs RA Dickey UNDER 7 - $18 for $15


**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**

Good first inning for Karstens after the lead off single (And steal) by Altuve. That reminds, I forgot to bring up a VERY important stat... want to know Karstens numbers against the Astros last year? Three starts, 3-0 record, 22 IP, 15 hits, 0 walks (!), 0.40 ERA, 0.66 WHIP, .190 BAA. That's basically as good as it gets.

Nice best bet victory, only wish I had more on it. That's definitely my biggest weakness as a bettor, as some of you have rightfully mentioned, is my money management. Bud Norris has been my favorite baseball pitcher since 2009 and I know him more than anyone (Mentally, physically, tendencies, etc.), while Jeff Karstens was my best pitcher (Record-wise, that is. Knowledge-wise I'm only solid with him) in 2011, so by that logic, this should've at least been one of my top three biggest bets of the year, as I would have an incredible chance of nailing it with those parameters.

Anyway, pissed I didn't get in Eovaldi vs Miley over in time. Had a pretty strong over vibe for it, as Eovaldi has dropped off, while Miley is more than due to get hit around a bit. I will add some analysis to my Latos vs Volquez under 6.5 for those on the verge of taking it so here it is...

Mat Latos, before this year, was one of my top ten favorite pitchers. Loved his dominating and powerful style, always had a good record with him (And still do this year, as regular readers may notice), as he can be a very predictable pitcher (Mentally, as well), which is why I correctly predicted his decline in the beginning of the year because he ADMITTED to feeling significant pressure about being traded to the Reds for a bunch of players AND being expected to be the cornerstone of the rotation (His words, not mine). That, combined with his tendency to give up flyballs, means he would not bode as well as he did in his former home of Petco Park. Interestingly, Latos has better numbers at Great American Ballpark this year, but I think that's something that will even out sooner than later, which is why this is the perfect spot for another quality Latos start - his road numbers inevitably will improve, and he's obviously always excelled at Petco Park. There is that huge, huge, huge mental variable to consider, that being Latos' long-awaited and hyped return to Petco, but I think that's something we can worry about less, now that he's overcome his early-season struggles and is in a real groove right now (Bringing his ERA significantly down in the process). That's always been a signature in the statline of Latos every year; he puts together long streaks of great pitching, and that's what he's in now. He's in a great state of mind, which should make him feel comfortable in his return to San Diego. As long as he escapes the first couple of innings with limited damage, that means he'll be on track for a terrific start.

Oh, and Edinson Volquez. Before one of his first two starts, I correctly predicted that Volquez would have a renaissance year with San Diego, going to an extreme pitcher's park with a lot of momentum, after ending 2011 strong. He's had some off outings, but facing against his old team, he'll be extra motivated and I think he'll give us another quality start here in 2012. I'm not as in tune with him as I am with Latos, but I've obviously been good with Volquez all year, so if I have any kind of vibe with him that he's about to give us some effective pitching, it's a vibe worth going with, especially matched up with one of my best guys in Latos.

DO NOT GET UPSET if we lose by a 5-2 score. That's also a main vision I had, and while it's a shame if we lose the under by a half-run, that's the unfortunate business of over/unders, especially this year where I've had so, so, sooo many close losses (I arguably lead the country in losses by a half-run or full-run. I'm not even exaggerating and regular readers will vouch for me). But if that's probably the worst case scenario, that means we have a very good chance of winning, and if you have a very good chance of winning, it's always a quality bet no matter what.

Shaping into a good night Cat. Def should work on a less varying mm system during the break. $120 on pitt but just $15 on what looks to be an easy winner in anaheim. If pitt didnt cash your night is toast. By the amounts you have been using maybe make $50 your smallest bet. If not willing to that much pass..just an idea but depends on your roll. GL manana and thanks.

moocow said:

Shaping into a good night Cat. Def should work on a less varying mm system during the break. $120 on pitt but just $15 on what looks to be an easy winner in anaheim. If pitt didnt cash your night is toast. By the amounts you have been using maybe make $50 your smallest bet. If not willing to that much pass..just an idea but depends on your roll. GL manana and thanks.

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Lol you're right ughhh it's so frustrating. Sometimes I wish I had a Mental Coach that can kind of read my brain and tell me which games I should be most aggressive on. There have been countless times where I had a real good feel for a game, but didn't put as much a dollar amount on it as, say, another game from another night that I didn't feel as good on, based on the other action on that given night. However, my reasoning for smaller bets tonight was that I was coming off a rare 0-for-3 last night on the fourth of July, so I was playing a little bit of defense in not letting it snowball, but at least I was able to make a relatively big bet on Norris vs Karstens. Wish I had more on this Latos one as well (If it was under 7 instead of 6.5, I DEFINITELY would have put over 100 on it, but still), but Latos, Norris, and Karstens have been three of my top guys since starting this in 09 (Well, Karstens really only in 2011) so I need to manage my $$ better.

The important thing, at least, is that if this Latos vs Volquez under holds (1-0 in the 7th but how many times have bullpens blew unders for me this year in this saaame exact scenario? Yeesh), I'll be 4-1 today with a decent profit. The record is more important to me because a lot of these games came off clear vibe, which is my most important tool. Studying this stuff every day, you look for patterns and rhythms, and when your vibes make games stick out, that's when it becomes easiest and allows you to patch together extended runs. I've done some great work over the weekend this year, today restored confidence in my vibes and senses, so this SHOULD set me up for a productive weekend of over/unders. I'm looking forward to my routine for tomorrow's games, which is a good sign. I'll be doing that once this Padres game ends.

Nice Day. Great bounce back!!

Thank you skyla. Yes a much-needed 4-1 performance today, needed that momentum