Friday: Weekend Winners Begin Today YTD: 226-195, + 58.4 units

ofred · Jul 6, 2012

Thursday: 4-5, -0.8 units. Some big disappointments with Arizona, but ninth inning win by Mets evened things out. It's obvious the D-Backs are not back to their home hitting ways. Last home stand, they would have hit Eovaldi for at least 4 or 5 runs. And Miley has now struggled at the beginning of his last 2 games. He's young. It's hard to lay off of them when comparing their lineup to the Dodgers, but the Dodgers are making the most of their opportunities.

Oakland: 3 units. -1. The Mariners do hit better on the road, but they have been so dreadful in their home stand, it defies belief. It seems every young hitter is in a slump, and can't get a hit until later in the game. Milone, a lefty, will give them fits. He has been amazing at home with a 0.99 ERA. The A's coming off of a 3 game sweep of Boston have regained their season, though they are not hitting that well. The bullpen was masterful vs. Boston and has been very good for longer than that. Another reason to like this game is that Kevin Millwood has been doing his usual regression. It hasn't been in full swing, but the signs are there. It's why he has a new team every year.
Seattle under TT. One unit (should be 3) I might make this 2 units tomorrow. I just can't see them scoring more than 1.
Oakland -1/2 first 5 IPs. One unit.

ofred · Jul 6, 2012

Detroit. -1. one unit.
Detroit -1/2 first 5 innings. One unit. Jonathan Sanchez is just a mess right now. It seems like he's injured, his head is not in the game, and word out of SF was that he was very frustrating to the team. In his last 3 starts-15 IPs- 16 walks, lots of hits. Earlier in the year, same thing. Detroit might finally blast out at the beginning of a game- a rare thing for them. I'm sure KC doesn't know what to do since he has a hefty contract. Smyly started the year well, then has become mediocre. But he should give the Tigers 4-5 innings better than Sanchez. His movement on his pitches is pretty good, but doesn't have that wow pitch.
Detroit/ KC. over 5 first 5 innings. one unit. If this is 5 in the morning, I might make it 2 units. These 2 pitchers have been pretty bad early in games, especially Sanchez.

ofred · Jul 6, 2012

NYY: One unit.ML.(on large side) This is even money tonight. Kuroda has been the best Yankee starter in the last month or more, and he has won big games like this. Shut down the crosstown rival Mets, pitched well at Texas when they were hot, and his last game was a masterpiece stopping the White Sox momentum at 2 wins. Has also pitched well against tougher hitting teams. Beckett has been beaten up by the Yankees over the years and that's when he was a better pitcher. The Sox looked dreadful on their West Coast swing, and as we are witnessing with Arizona, you don't magically start hitting when you come home. All those backup players have played well for Boston, but now they are looking like backups.

ofred · Jul 6, 2012

Cleveland/ Tampa. - one unit over 8.5. The Indians have been scoring early and lately have been scoring a lot. Alex Cobb has been awful lately, and other than a great outing vs. Miami (which was in a slump at the time), it goes back about 6 starts. The Tribe has been killing righties lately and are hitting .275 vs. them this year. Masterson has been absolutely awful against these Rays hitters going back over his 46 IPs career vs. Tampa. In fact last year, Masterson was in a long pitching period(like he's in now), and had 2 very poor outings vs. Tampa in the middle of it.

ofred · Jul 6, 2012

St. Louis: TT. one unit. Nolasco seems to get hit hard when he faces a team shortly after another start with this same team. STL just saw him about a week and half ago. Many of these Cardinals have hit him hard in his career. His velocity has been decreasing for 2 years and he has only a slider that is an out pitch- which he uses about 20-25% of the time. And it's not a great slider.

ofred · Jul 6, 2012

Chicago/ Toronto: under 9. one unit. First game of the series, Peavy and Laffey both pitching well. Laffey is one of those lefties who will eventually get hit, but right now he is hanging in there, including 2 great starts vs. Boston and LAA. Both teams have reasonably decent BPs. Peavy's strikeouts are way up recently. White Sox struggle vs. lefties. They have been blasting righties though.

Bee40 · Jul 6, 2012

GL fred, I'm on NYY too.

I'm shocked LAD opened at -110 with Kershaw pitching tomorrow against some bullpen guy. Sure they can't put many runs on the board right now, but D'backs are slumping and Kershaw is all-star who has owned them so far in his career. I dislike betting the night before, but I guess this will creep up to -130/-140 by game time.

Catchn_Flops · Jul 6, 2012

Thanks for the full slate Fred. David Wright was our new BFF after last night...bailed us out of the 1st 5 inning bet and game. Wow.

From the write-up I am assuming the STL TT bet is an over.

BOL

nojuice9 · Jul 6, 2012

good luck, like that Rays over.

ofred · Jul 6, 2012

STL. TT is an over at 5.

Upping Det/ KC -over first 5 innings to 2 units (at 5)

ofred · Jul 6, 2012

Pirates/ SF- over 4.5 -first 5 innings. One unit. Giants can stack their lineup with righties today vs. a laboring Erik Bedard. Bedard just seems to be really toiling out on the mound, and his walk totals/ inning have climbed. His arm can only hold up for so many starts, and as happened in previous years, he starts to fade. Belt, the SF lefty, is a .311 hitter vs. lefty pitchers, but otherwise almost the whole lineup is switch hitters and right handed hitters. Now Zito is a tough call. He is less effective on the road, many Pirates have hit him well over the years, and the Pirates (other than yesterday), have been killing it at the plate. Yesterday, against Bud Norris they hit some hard ones that were caught, and just an expected off day. I'm still impressed that the Pirates have hit 13 HRs in the last 7 days- and McCutcheon has to be the toughest out in the NL. I got a feeling there will be some early scoring today and that one of these pitchers will implode.

varkeyboy · Jul 6, 2012

Let's have a GREAT DAY!!!

ofred · Jul 6, 2012

Washiington:RL. One unit. Can't resist this one. The Rockies have gone from one hot climate to another. With the travel, they may be tired and take a game to get going with the bats. The Nats have faced some really good pitching this past week, and have been hitting every one- 13 HRs in past week and a .321 BA. Pomeranz might be a little wowed in front of tonight's expected crowd in DC. With Strasburg on the mound, it's always an event. Pomeranz might be a future No. 1, but is still a little raw. Walks about the same number of batters as strikes them out. Strasburg pitched fairly well at Coors Field, so I'd expect him to do well here. Nats also have the BP advantage. Also might factor in the Rockies dreadful defense.

ofred · Jul 6, 2012

I'm glad the views are down on this thread from earlier in the week. The pressure is off and I'm feeling hopeful. Either I'm going to hit a big night or have another slightly down day. Anyways, a lot of units riding tonight.

This is another combo play. Haven't been doing well on them, so fade if you want. I think that usually series openers have a little bit less scoring, so that's part of it. 1/2 unit on each.
Mets/ Cubs: under 4 for first 5. Neither team does very well vs. lefties, especially the Cubs. Santana and Wood have been very strong at the beginnings of games and have pitched well overall lately. The Cubs seem to have lost their power game, and the Mets might have a hangover from their 9th inning win vs. Phils. Check out Travis Wood's stats for the past month or loner- impressive. Both bullpens suck so it makes the game under a poor play.
Astros/ Brewers- under 4.5 for first 5. Gallardo has been very steady for many starts and has pitched well vs. this Astros lineup. His strikeouts are up and I'd be surprised to see the Astros get to him early. The Brewers, as hitters, seem to take a couple of turns through the lineup before getting it going. New series like this, I'm thinking this is likely. Happ has also pitched well last few. He is a mystery- seems to have good stuff, but can't sustain it for long. Once again, 2 lousy bullpens; the Brewers is god awful.
Both parks are fairly good pitcher's parks too.

Glad I got one unit on the Yanks last night at even money. Let's make it 2 units ML, but this unit will cost me more. No Pedroia. Yanks have seen Beckett plenty of times, but Kuroda has faced the Sox only once. I also don't like the Red Sox demeanor as I saw them on their West Coast swing. Looked kind of lethargic. Maybe Bobby Valentine's getting to them.

Catchn_Flops · Jul 6, 2012

Hi Fred:

It is easy for me to say "there is no pressure"...I have never even posted a play in my life. Maintaining a commitment to a daily thread for a very long baseball season is a herculean effort. On top of that you provide major write-ups for each selection. That takes courage. If the pick loses, in many cases your write-up will look wrong. There is a lot on the line for you.

Nobody can ask any more from you for the first half of the season than you have provided. You have a deep understanding of the game and pick the winning side much more than not so far. In the end they have to play the game.

Big night tonight...let's get em. Thanks again and BOL to everyone who follows this thread.

varkeyboy · Jul 6, 2012

Catchn_Flops said:
Hi Fred:

It is easy for me to say "there is no pressure"...I have never even posted a play in my life. Maintaining a commitment to a daily thread for a very long baseball season is a herculean effort. On top of that you provide major write-ups for each selection. That takes courage. If the pick loses, in many cases your write-up will look wrong. There is a lot on the line for you.

Nobody can ask any more from you for the first half of the season than you have provided. You have a deep understanding of the game and pick the winning side much more than not so far. In the end they have to play the game.

Big night tonight...let's get em. Thanks again and BOL to everyone who follows this thread.

EVERYTHING you said! O Fred, i commend what you do here on a daily basis. Like CF said, it's not an easy task. Wishing you all the best today and throughout the rest of the baseball season. I'm a big follower and I'm only wishing you continued success!

varkeyboy · Jul 6, 2012

Good start in TB/CLE with Zobrist hitting a 2 run bomb!

Catchn_Flops · Jul 6, 2012

Yea, Clev on a 36 total pace!!!

LOL

NYY shredding Beckett in the 1st inning....good add on Fred

varkeyboy · Jul 6, 2012

Catchn_Flops said:
Yea, Clev on a 36 total pace!!!

LOL

NYY shredding Beckett in the 1st inning....good add on Fred

5-5 in 1st inning......................as usual, these Yankees/Red Sox game goes OVER once again!!

Catchn_Flops · Jul 6, 2012

varkeyboy said:
5-5 in 1st inning......................as usual, these Yankees/Red Sox game goes OVER once again!!

The highest scoring 1st inning in the MLB history of the NYY/BOS baseball games.

Friday: Weekend Winners Begin Today YTD: 226-195, + 58.4 units

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