2012 MLB O/U Record: 212-206-19, -$1,410 (Been making bigger bets this year, with countless bad breaks, obviously)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Excellent 4-1 day yesterday, as my only loss was my smallest bet on the evening. I’m hoping that momentum will spill into today on this first Friday in July, although I’m going with mostly smaller-sized bets this evening, at least for now. Here’s the card…
Drew Pomeranz vs Stephen Strasburg UNDER7.5 - $33 for $30
Would have liked to have seen this line be 8, since it is the potent Rockies and Nationals’ offenses involved, but there’s still potential here. Stephen Strasburg is obviously Stephen Strasburg, meaning he can single-handedly shut out anyone (At least for seven innings) on any given night. He recently pumped out a quality start against these same Rockies on the road, and since he’s coming off his roughest outing of the year (A three-inning dud in Atlanta), he’ll be that much more motivated to atone for it and get back on track. Obviously, the wild card will be Drew Pomeranz, who, like Strasburg, was a recent high draft pick, although with not as much fanfare. Even so, Pomeranz has impressed, and I think he’s one of those guys, like Christian Friedrich, that provides a bright future for the mostly woeful Colorado pitching staff. Pomeranz sports a 3.72 ERA, and as long as he can cut down on the walks, he can become a truly reliable pitcher. Only problem is, when betting on a Rockies over/under, there is potentially too much dependability on the bullpen, due to Jim Tracy’s ridiculous pitch limit for his starters (Why does he still implement this method? Why??), which could ultimately cost us, but I’ll take the chance with a stud like Strasburg and a potential stud like Pomeranz. It's an intriguing matchup.
Alex Cobb vs Justin Masterson OVER 8.5 -$23 for $20
I correctly predicted Justin Masterson’s re-emergence several weeks ago when he had seemingly hit rock bottom after a storybook 2011, which makes it difficult to suddenly take him in an over, when I’ve been riding his unders throughout his current string of really good pitching. In fact, his ERA has dropped a full run-and-a-half since the end of April, bringing it down to a more-than-respectable 3.92. He has to be happy with himself in how his 2012 season has turned around (After people may have thought he was a fluke in 2011), but that’s something we can use to our advantage, as maybe he has unintentionally gained a sense of content, which can make him more vulnerable and hittable again. As for Alex Cobb, he’s the main reason to take this over, as he has faded significantly since a promising start, having given up four runs or more in five of his past six starts. These are two solid offenses going at it on a Friday night against at least one pitcher they can knock out early. I envision a 7-2 type of game.
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
(Probably going to take Kevin Millwood vs Tom Milone under 7. Just not sure how much I’m putting on it yet)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Excellent 4-1 day yesterday, as my only loss was my smallest bet on the evening. I’m hoping that momentum will spill into today on this first Friday in July, although I’m going with mostly smaller-sized bets this evening, at least for now. Here’s the card…
Drew Pomeranz vs Stephen Strasburg UNDER7.5 - $33 for $30
Would have liked to have seen this line be 8, since it is the potent Rockies and Nationals’ offenses involved, but there’s still potential here. Stephen Strasburg is obviously Stephen Strasburg, meaning he can single-handedly shut out anyone (At least for seven innings) on any given night. He recently pumped out a quality start against these same Rockies on the road, and since he’s coming off his roughest outing of the year (A three-inning dud in Atlanta), he’ll be that much more motivated to atone for it and get back on track. Obviously, the wild card will be Drew Pomeranz, who, like Strasburg, was a recent high draft pick, although with not as much fanfare. Even so, Pomeranz has impressed, and I think he’s one of those guys, like Christian Friedrich, that provides a bright future for the mostly woeful Colorado pitching staff. Pomeranz sports a 3.72 ERA, and as long as he can cut down on the walks, he can become a truly reliable pitcher. Only problem is, when betting on a Rockies over/under, there is potentially too much dependability on the bullpen, due to Jim Tracy’s ridiculous pitch limit for his starters (Why does he still implement this method? Why??), which could ultimately cost us, but I’ll take the chance with a stud like Strasburg and a potential stud like Pomeranz. It's an intriguing matchup.
Alex Cobb vs Justin Masterson OVER 8.5 -$23 for $20
I correctly predicted Justin Masterson’s re-emergence several weeks ago when he had seemingly hit rock bottom after a storybook 2011, which makes it difficult to suddenly take him in an over, when I’ve been riding his unders throughout his current string of really good pitching. In fact, his ERA has dropped a full run-and-a-half since the end of April, bringing it down to a more-than-respectable 3.92. He has to be happy with himself in how his 2012 season has turned around (After people may have thought he was a fluke in 2011), but that’s something we can use to our advantage, as maybe he has unintentionally gained a sense of content, which can make him more vulnerable and hittable again. As for Alex Cobb, he’s the main reason to take this over, as he has faded significantly since a promising start, having given up four runs or more in five of his past six starts. These are two solid offenses going at it on a Friday night against at least one pitcher they can knock out early. I envision a 7-2 type of game.
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
(Probably going to take Kevin Millwood vs Tom Milone under 7. Just not sure how much I’m putting on it yet)
