2012 MLB O/U Record: 215-206-19, -$1,330 (Been making bigger bets this year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
It’s too bad the all-star break is right around the corner, as my perfect 3-0 performance yesterday has made me 7-1 over the past couple of days. If I can make a hitter analogy, I’m seeing the baseball really well right now as if it was the size of a beach ball. Unfortunately, these upcoming days off may cut into my momentum (Although it will be actually nice to, you know, take a few days off for the first time ALL season!) so hopefully I can salvage these last two days left and start getting my record back up to respectability in what has been a truly bizarre 2012 season. Let’s see what this final Saturday before the break has in store…
Milwaukee Brewers @ Houston Astros (Best Bet) - $58 for $50
Zack Greinke vs Wandy Rodriguez
UNDER 7.5
One of the toughest factors about taking a game right before the all-star break, whether it be in the form of a moneyline, runline, or over/under, is figuring out if the pitchers involved are going to ‘lax up and simply go through the motions, or if they’re going to lay it all out there right before they get their well-deserved days off, in giving their best effort possible. In the case of Zack Greinke, there is much reason to believe he will give one of his signature performances. First off, he’s facing a team that he has pitched very well against since coming to theNational League, having given up two runs or less in each of his three starts against the Astros as a member of the Brewers. Secondly, considering Greinke is coming off one of his worst performances of the year (Five runs allowed in six innings in a rare off outing at home against the Marlins), it’s only human nature - arguably the most important factor of all when examining a professional athlete - that he’ll want to bounce back from it, and not head into his extended break with a bad taste in his mouth of having two consecutive bad starts. Thus, with that being known, we should be getting the usual Zack Greinke effort in this specific contest. While it’s true his best work has come at home during his tenure in Milwaukee, his wonderful track record against Houston can easily override any potential road struggles.
While it’s easier to lean on and expect a solid show put on by the Brewers’ right-hander, we will also need a similar effort from the opposing Wandy Rodriguez. The Astros’ southpaw has been enjoying another good campaign this season, sporting a 3.54 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 70 Ks in 109 innings, which is lower than usual for him, but still relatively fine compared to other major league pitchers. Like his opponent, Rodriguez has nice history against the team he’ll be squaring off against today, possessing a solid 3.78 career ERA against the Brewers (Although he has not faced them yet in 2012). In addition, we’re catching Wandy in his best setting, as he has always been significant better home at Minute Maid Park, where his career ERA is more than a FULL run lower than it is on the road (3.45 compared to 4.66). The only thing I’m concerned with about the left-hander heading into this start is the continued trade talks that involve his name, specifically the news that broke out today how the Orioles called Houston with interest in his services. I mean, Wandy has dealt with various reports like this over recent years (Since 2009, to be specific), so at this point in time, you have to think that he’s rock-solid mentally when it comes to these trade discussions, since he’s been through this whole process quite a bit before. As a result, I think we can get Rodriguez focused in his usual mindset, as he seeks to put away a longtime NL Central division rival, in a matchup of two very talented pitchers. This could be a potential pitcher’s duel, and with the line as high as 7.5 in this National League meeting, the under appears to be a very good bet.
Also of Note: Take a look at the Ryan Vogelsong vs James McDonald matchup in Pittsburgh this afternoon. It's superior to Greinke vs Rodriguez, correct? Absolutely. So why, even being in a BETTER pitcher's park like Pittsburgh, is the line 8, and Greinke vs Rodriguez listed at 7.5? It's because Vegas CLEARLY senses some kind of higher-than-expected scoring affair at PNC Park today, and how many times have I correctly pinpointed when Vegas was obviously tipping their hand to the public? In this case, it's almost laughable, as Vogelsong vs McDonald is clearly the better pitching matchup. I won't be taking the over, as I don't like taking overs involving guys I love (James McDonald), but I do highly recommend it. That is easily an instance of Vegas revealing what they see. There have been much inferior matchups in Pittsburgh this year with a line less than that, so the fact that they made a meeting of two elite NL pitchers like Vogelsong and McDonald is truly mind-boggling.
**Will Add More Over/Under(s) ThroughoutDay Leading Up To Gametime**
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
It’s too bad the all-star break is right around the corner, as my perfect 3-0 performance yesterday has made me 7-1 over the past couple of days. If I can make a hitter analogy, I’m seeing the baseball really well right now as if it was the size of a beach ball. Unfortunately, these upcoming days off may cut into my momentum (Although it will be actually nice to, you know, take a few days off for the first time ALL season!) so hopefully I can salvage these last two days left and start getting my record back up to respectability in what has been a truly bizarre 2012 season. Let’s see what this final Saturday before the break has in store…
Milwaukee Brewers @ Houston Astros (Best Bet) - $58 for $50
Zack Greinke vs Wandy Rodriguez
UNDER 7.5
One of the toughest factors about taking a game right before the all-star break, whether it be in the form of a moneyline, runline, or over/under, is figuring out if the pitchers involved are going to ‘lax up and simply go through the motions, or if they’re going to lay it all out there right before they get their well-deserved days off, in giving their best effort possible. In the case of Zack Greinke, there is much reason to believe he will give one of his signature performances. First off, he’s facing a team that he has pitched very well against since coming to theNational League, having given up two runs or less in each of his three starts against the Astros as a member of the Brewers. Secondly, considering Greinke is coming off one of his worst performances of the year (Five runs allowed in six innings in a rare off outing at home against the Marlins), it’s only human nature - arguably the most important factor of all when examining a professional athlete - that he’ll want to bounce back from it, and not head into his extended break with a bad taste in his mouth of having two consecutive bad starts. Thus, with that being known, we should be getting the usual Zack Greinke effort in this specific contest. While it’s true his best work has come at home during his tenure in Milwaukee, his wonderful track record against Houston can easily override any potential road struggles.
While it’s easier to lean on and expect a solid show put on by the Brewers’ right-hander, we will also need a similar effort from the opposing Wandy Rodriguez. The Astros’ southpaw has been enjoying another good campaign this season, sporting a 3.54 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 70 Ks in 109 innings, which is lower than usual for him, but still relatively fine compared to other major league pitchers. Like his opponent, Rodriguez has nice history against the team he’ll be squaring off against today, possessing a solid 3.78 career ERA against the Brewers (Although he has not faced them yet in 2012). In addition, we’re catching Wandy in his best setting, as he has always been significant better home at Minute Maid Park, where his career ERA is more than a FULL run lower than it is on the road (3.45 compared to 4.66). The only thing I’m concerned with about the left-hander heading into this start is the continued trade talks that involve his name, specifically the news that broke out today how the Orioles called Houston with interest in his services. I mean, Wandy has dealt with various reports like this over recent years (Since 2009, to be specific), so at this point in time, you have to think that he’s rock-solid mentally when it comes to these trade discussions, since he’s been through this whole process quite a bit before. As a result, I think we can get Rodriguez focused in his usual mindset, as he seeks to put away a longtime NL Central division rival, in a matchup of two very talented pitchers. This could be a potential pitcher’s duel, and with the line as high as 7.5 in this National League meeting, the under appears to be a very good bet.
Also of Note: Take a look at the Ryan Vogelsong vs James McDonald matchup in Pittsburgh this afternoon. It's superior to Greinke vs Rodriguez, correct? Absolutely. So why, even being in a BETTER pitcher's park like Pittsburgh, is the line 8, and Greinke vs Rodriguez listed at 7.5? It's because Vegas CLEARLY senses some kind of higher-than-expected scoring affair at PNC Park today, and how many times have I correctly pinpointed when Vegas was obviously tipping their hand to the public? In this case, it's almost laughable, as Vogelsong vs McDonald is clearly the better pitching matchup. I won't be taking the over, as I don't like taking overs involving guys I love (James McDonald), but I do highly recommend it. That is easily an instance of Vegas revealing what they see. There have been much inferior matchups in Pittsburgh this year with a line less than that, so the fact that they made a meeting of two elite NL pitchers like Vogelsong and McDonald is truly mind-boggling.
**Will Add More Over/Under(s) ThroughoutDay Leading Up To Gametime**
