Sunday: A Welcome Break YTD: 237-204, +61.9 units

ofred · Jul 8, 2012

Saturday: 4-4, - 0.1 units

A lot of pushes Saturday. I still the think the Red Sox are in for tough times and maybe for the rest of the year. I'm not sure Bobby Valentine is the answer and I sure don't think they have the pitching staff or continuity of players to do well in the next month or so. Tonight's win was a pride win. The bottom of their order hit very well, but these young players(which have been brought up constantly)won't produce in the long term- usually a team has 1 or 2 minor leaguers that can contribute, but Boston is reaching down for the 6th, 7th or 8th players. When they get all their guys healthy they might make a push. We'll see.

Pirates: ML. 3 units (-123) This seems like a pretty good number for a team that has had an amazing 2 weeks. They have won almost all their games except for a few one run losses. The last time they lost by more than one run was June 25. Their 1-7 guys in the lineup are hitting for power, hitting in the clutch and just hitting period. I just can't see them losing their final game before the all-star game to Lincecum. Lincecum's ERA on the road is 8+, and Burnett has pitched very well vs. the Giants in his career. Also, Burnett has had only a couple of bad outings this year (like his last one), and has followed each one with an outstanding one. It will be only low 90s in Pittsburgh, but this Eastern heat has to be wearing on the cool weather Giants. In Washington, Lincecum wilted early. Pirates also have the BP edge and a big home crowd. Baserunners driving Lincecum crazy, noisy crowd, Timmy's waning confidence- I should make it 4 units.

ofred · Jul 8, 2012

LA Dodgers: One unit. ML (+115) I don't like taking these weak hitting bums, but what a pitching mismatch. Capuano has been remarkable in that he has only one truly bad outing this year at Coors Field. Otherwise he is usually great or competitive in giving up 2 or 3 runs. Bauer is a cocky newcomer whom is the next pitching god in the majors. He was constantly shaking off C Montero, then getting hit or walking lots of guys and then had the nerve to say he doesn't consider the weaknesses of the batters, only his strengths. In other words, what Montero knows about the NL batters is no help to him. His 7 IPs, with 9 runs and 7 walks is not a good start. Since the Dodgers are sort of hitting better and the D-Backs are still not in home hitting mode, this is a nice underdog.

ofred · Jul 8, 2012

Seattle: ML (-113). One unit. Also a good number. The Mariners have seen Colon a lot this year. I was impressed by how well they hit Parker Saturday, and they do hit righties on the road for some reason. Since Colon likes to throw strikes and the Mariners like to swing, they could break out. Felix has been much improved in the last month and usually pitches well vs. Oakland. his velocity is up a bit, and he commands multiple pitches like no one else. Besides the A's aren't exactly hitting well.

ofred · Jul 8, 2012

Cleveland: TT. One unit ( 4.5 or 5?) or first 5- ML (we'll see in AM)
Cleveland: ML (-107). One unit. The Indians are the AL's version of the Pirates, but often hit early in games. They have scored 51 runs, with a .319 BA - 11HRs. Shields is the perfect candidate to increase these numbers. He has been pitching too many strikes and teams are hitting him for lots of line drives and HRs. This is what he was like in 2010. The Indians also have an excellent BB:K ratio- meaning they take pitches to get walks, and don't strikeout that much. Zach McAllister has been competitive in his starts. Like the Pirates, I can't see them losing in front of their home crowd before the break. both BPs about equal.

Catchn_Flops · Jul 8, 2012

o fred said:

Saturday: 4-4, - 0.1 units

"A lot of pushes Saturday. I still the think the Red Sox are in for tough times and maybe for the rest of the year. I'm not sure Bobby Valentine is the answer and I sure don't think they have the pitching staff or continuity of players to do well in the next month or so. Tonight's win was a pride win. The bottom of their order hit very well, but these young players(which have been brought up constantly)won't produce in the long term- usually a team has 1 or 2 minor leaguers that can contribute, but Boston is reaching down for the 6th, 7th or 8th players. When they get all their guys healthy they might make a push. We'll see."

Click to expand...

o fred said:
I would say they look like very different team with young, quick talent instead of an older, experienced power line-up. You are right that time will tell....long-term this could make them a better, deeper team but NYY could be long gone by the time they are there.

While NYY's second game yesterday seemed like a weak effort...today could be better for them. NYY knows Lester better than any team...hits lefties well and Lester is having a down year while Nova has been an anchor starter. Nova as a dog is reported as 9-3.

BOL always...let's get em on getaway day.

GL everybody.

ofred · Jul 8, 2012

o fred said:
Cleveland: TT. One unit ( 4.5 or 5?) or first 5- ML (we'll see in AM)
Cleveland: ML (-107). One unit. The Indians are the AL's version of the Pirates, but often hit early in games. They have scored 51 runs, with a .319 BA - 11HRs. Shields is the perfect candidate to increase these numbers. He has been pitching too many strikes and teams are hitting him for lots of line drives and HRs. This is what he was like in 2010. The Indians also have an excellent BB:K ratio- meaning they take pitches to get walks, and don't strikeout that much. Zach McAllister has been competitive in his starts. Like the Pirates, I can't see them losing in front of their home crowd before the break. both BPs about equal.

Cleveland TT. Over 4. One unit.(not first 5)

ofred · Jul 8, 2012

Twins: over 4.5 TT. One unit. It's possible that Oswalt is either "done" or he cannot command his fastball anymore. The early stats are eye-popping: 17 IPs, 35 hits! And 17 runs. The Twins are also one of the hotter hitting teams in the past week or so. Texas is a decent hitter's park.

ofred · Jul 8, 2012

Phils/ ATL: under 8(-128). One unit.(on small side). Both of these teams put out a good lineup, with some speed, lots of power, and I can't figure out why they don't score more often. Two pitchers today have had very few Ks in their past 2-3 starts, pitching to contact often. Both have also lost some velocity- Jurrjens in the past 2 years, and Worley in his past 2 starts. Citizens Bank Park is a fairly good hitter' spark. Bust out here by at least one of them. Both BPs underperforming, especially Philly.

vivadart · Jul 8, 2012

of - do you mean Phi/Atl Over? Price and analysis seem off for an under.

Catchn_Flops · Jul 8, 2012

Fred...given your line and the write up, I have to assume you are betting Over on the Phil/ATL game.

ofred · Jul 8, 2012

o fred said:
Phils/ ATL: under 8(-128). One unit.(on small side). Both of these teams put out a good lineup, with some speed, lots of power, and I can't figure out why they don't score more often. Two pitchers today have had very few Ks in their past 2-3 starts, pitching to contact often. Both have also lost some velocity- Jurrjens in the past 2 years, and Worley in his past 2 starts. Citizens Bank Park is a fairly good hitter' spark. Bust out here by at least one of them. Both BPs underperforming, especially Philly.

Yes, it's an over. I always seem to do that when I get distracted.

ofred · Jul 8, 2012

LAA: -1. One unit. You might think Mike Scioscia is nuts pitching this minor league scrub vs. the O's today. Mills is not even a very good AAA pitcher. But he has a herky jerky motion that might take the Orioles a few innings to get used to. But with the all-star break coming, he can open up the bullpen. He only needs 2-3 innings from this guy. Scioscia is not resting any of his starters either. He knows that the game going into the break might set the tone for his team coming out of there break. Chen has been a tough lefty, but depends on his fastball a little too much. Angels have seem him before, and hit .271 vs. lefties. Angels also have BP edge, though slight.

ofred · Jul 8, 2012

Started out looking like a very good day, but spoiled by Indians blow up in the ninth. And the Braves have the least win potential with the most talent.

Final play before the break. I'll back up my comments about the Red Sox in yesterday's post. In the long run, they're better off(maybe), but now they are very young, very banged up and short on starting pitching and a closer. Many of these Red Sox hitters have not seen Nova much. He has faced many tough hitting teams and been a top of the rotation type starter(though not a #1). He can get the K or more likely the ground balls. A good thing in Fenway. Gonzalez is 0-8, Ortiz 3-11 and Saltamacchia, 0-5. The Yankees have seen Lester many, many times and I think will be very prepared to hit him. Lester hasn't faced the Yanks this year, but 5 times last year. In 25 IPs, they got him for 19 runs. Lester's best pitching performances in the past 2 months were vs. Seattle and Oakland(2 crumb crushers). He is a gutsy pitcher who is trying to gut it out game after game. But he is not the same since last September. Yankees-ML. One unit.

Catchn_Flops · Jul 8, 2012

o fred said:
Started out looking like a very good day, but spoiled by Indians blow up in the ninth. And the Braves have the least win potential with the most talent.

Final play before the break. I'll back up my comments about the Red Sox in yesterday's post. In the long run, they're better off(maybe), but now they are very young, very banged up and short on starting pitching and a closer. Many of these Red Sox hitters have not seen Nova much. He has faced many tough hitting teams and been a top of the rotation type starter(though not a #1). He can get the K or more likely the ground balls. A good thing in Fenway. Gonzalez is 0-8, Ortiz 3-11 and Saltamacchia, 0-5. The Yankees have seen Lester many, many times and I think will be very prepared to hit him. Lester hasn't faced the Yanks this year, but 5 times last year. In 25 IPs, they got him for 19 runs. Lester's best pitching performances in the past 2 months were vs. Seattle and Oakland(2 crumb crushers). He is a gutsy pitcher who is trying to gut it out game after game. But he is not the same since last September. Yankees-ML. One unit.

Helluva first half of the season Fred. You have committed a sizable portion of your life to handicapping plays and posting them here with write ups. Thank you.

Love the Yanks play. Let's all go out in style.

Catchn_Flops · Jul 8, 2012

Somebody must be out for NYY....line on Boston skyrocketing up...NYY has gone from +106 to +122 on Pinny.

ofred · Jul 9, 2012

Sunday: 4-5, +. 6 units

YTD: 241-209, + 62.5 units

If you haven't already figured this out, here's what the first half looks like- I'm only 32 games above .500 on my record, but 62.5 units up. My larger bets have done very well, especially the ones placed the night before, but have done poorly on the one unit plays that come after. I'm not changing the unit amount, but will likely increase the units on my top plays and not bet so many one unit plays. Anyways, thanks for all the input and encouragement. Let's get 'em in the 2nd half.

PatsFanatic · Jul 9, 2012

Well done Fred

Catchn_Flops · Jul 9, 2012

o fred said:
Sunday: 4-5, +. 6 units

YTD: 241-209, + 62.5 units

If you haven't already figured this out, here's what the first half looks like- I'm only 32 games above .500 on my record, but 62.5 units up. My larger bets have done very well, especially the ones placed the night before, but have done poorly on the one unit plays that come after. I'm not changing the unit amount, but will likely increase the units on my top plays and not bet so many one unit plays. Anyways, thanks for all the input and encouragement. Let's get 'em in the 2nd half.

Fred:

Your big plays of been money and the most impressive part of your 1st half, imo.

(<)<(<)<

It is mathematically impossible to avoid cold stretches given the length of the MLB season. You constantly bounced back when you had a bad day or two. You just kept your cool and just continued to do your thing.

Thank you for the effort and to all that contributed to the thread.

Will you have a fun play on the All Star game?

See ya after the break.

Sunday: A Welcome Break YTD: 237-204, +61.9 units

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