2012 MLB O/U Record: 216-207-20, -$1,368 (Been making bigger bets this year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Well, the distinct theme of 2012 continued for The Cat yesterday, as I was once again bit by a cruel and unusual fluke bad beat that single-handedly cost me my best bet and was absolutely zero-percent my fault (It shouldn't even count on my record, actually, since it turned into a different pitching matchup). I was 1-1-1 overall, the one loss being the Zack Greinke game, in which he was wrongfully tossed from the game after the second batter - which NEVER happens, but of course it happens to me like every other possible unusual occurrence - and my hard work went to waste, as Greinke inevitably would have shut down the flailing Astros to two or three runs at most (He’s never surrendered more than two against Houston), while Wandy Rodriguez, who was the lesser dependable factor in all of this, contributed five solid innings giving up no earned runs… yup, just another one of those flukes that continues to bite me, even when I’m hot, as I’m now 8-2-1 over the past few days nonetheless. It’s the last day before the all-star break, meaning I’m actually about to get a few days off for the first time all YEAR (Same routine as last season for me), so instead of dwelling on that horrendous Greinke break (That umpire will probably be suspended for a game or two, since he made his decision without fully seeing Greinke’s reaction, as Greinke was clearly saying he was mad at himself), let’s just move on to this Sunday, which features a big bet for me…
Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Indians (Best Bet) - $156 for $135
James Shields vs Zach McAllister
UNDER 9
Okay, I know this is one of the more random games on today’s slate, but after doing my usual over/under routine for hours this morning AND last night when I got home (To newer readers, nobody in the country works harder at baseball over/unders than I do. And that’s no exaggeration), this is the one that stuck out far and away from the rest. It’s an unexpected one to me as well, as coming into 2012, Zach McAllister wasa bsolutely one of those pitchers that I never thought would be involved in one of my daily best bets this season. But if you’ve been paying attention, you may have noticed the unlikely emergence of the Indians’ right-hander. For the season, McAllister is an impressive 3-1 with a 3.93 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, but most striking of all is his remarkable 33:7 K:BB ratio in 36 innings this year. Even more amazing is the fact that five of those walks came in one of his six starts this year. I believe this is a wonderful opportunity to buy a guy significantly lower than he’s worth, as from here on out, I don’t think we’ll be seeing any identical lines for matchups involving McAllister and an upper-tier pitcher like his opponent for today. This is someone who seems legit, which he did not come off as last year in his handful of starts, as I think he’s going to permanently stick this time around.
Going against McAllister is the proven and battle-tested ace James Shields, who has shown everyone for a long period of time now that he can seemingly be counted on in any situation and under any circumstance. The same has held true in 2012, as Shields has posted a nice 8-5 record with a 4.11 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. Those latter two numbers should start to come down a bit, though, as I read a stat explaining how Shields (Much like me, actually) has some of the worst luck in baseball, with a higher-than-most average of balls that get put into play. This is especially crucial for Shields, because he still has maintained his excellent strikeout numbers (104 in 111 innings), so if he continues to do that, the damage against him will become more limited from here on out, due to that average of balls being put in play inevitably going down at some point. One man’s bad luck can’t continue at a high pace for a full season (Which is why I’ve never taken a day off, if I can make that comparison), so look for him to begin to turn around that aspect of his game this afternoon in Cleveland. Another key thing I like about this matchup is that both guys - Shields, especially - have shown they can eat up a lot of innings, which means I can worry less about yet another potential bullpen blunder, which has been the main theme of this 2012 baseball season (Bullpens getting rocked at a historic pace). In other words, I think we can count on each starter to give us a quality extended performance, and with the line as high as 9, we even have room for error. This is a good bet, which is why I have a large amount on it.
Other 7/8 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Jair Jurrjens vs Vance Worley OVER 9 - $22 for $20
Jeremy Guthrie vs Jordan Zimmermann OVER 9 - $21 for $20
Tim Lincecum vs AJ Burnett OVER 8 - $18for $15
Johnny Cueto vs Jason Marquis UNDER 7 - $18 for $15
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Well, the distinct theme of 2012 continued for The Cat yesterday, as I was once again bit by a cruel and unusual fluke bad beat that single-handedly cost me my best bet and was absolutely zero-percent my fault (It shouldn't even count on my record, actually, since it turned into a different pitching matchup). I was 1-1-1 overall, the one loss being the Zack Greinke game, in which he was wrongfully tossed from the game after the second batter - which NEVER happens, but of course it happens to me like every other possible unusual occurrence - and my hard work went to waste, as Greinke inevitably would have shut down the flailing Astros to two or three runs at most (He’s never surrendered more than two against Houston), while Wandy Rodriguez, who was the lesser dependable factor in all of this, contributed five solid innings giving up no earned runs… yup, just another one of those flukes that continues to bite me, even when I’m hot, as I’m now 8-2-1 over the past few days nonetheless. It’s the last day before the all-star break, meaning I’m actually about to get a few days off for the first time all YEAR (Same routine as last season for me), so instead of dwelling on that horrendous Greinke break (That umpire will probably be suspended for a game or two, since he made his decision without fully seeing Greinke’s reaction, as Greinke was clearly saying he was mad at himself), let’s just move on to this Sunday, which features a big bet for me…
Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Indians (Best Bet) - $156 for $135
James Shields vs Zach McAllister
UNDER 9
Okay, I know this is one of the more random games on today’s slate, but after doing my usual over/under routine for hours this morning AND last night when I got home (To newer readers, nobody in the country works harder at baseball over/unders than I do. And that’s no exaggeration), this is the one that stuck out far and away from the rest. It’s an unexpected one to me as well, as coming into 2012, Zach McAllister wasa bsolutely one of those pitchers that I never thought would be involved in one of my daily best bets this season. But if you’ve been paying attention, you may have noticed the unlikely emergence of the Indians’ right-hander. For the season, McAllister is an impressive 3-1 with a 3.93 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, but most striking of all is his remarkable 33:7 K:BB ratio in 36 innings this year. Even more amazing is the fact that five of those walks came in one of his six starts this year. I believe this is a wonderful opportunity to buy a guy significantly lower than he’s worth, as from here on out, I don’t think we’ll be seeing any identical lines for matchups involving McAllister and an upper-tier pitcher like his opponent for today. This is someone who seems legit, which he did not come off as last year in his handful of starts, as I think he’s going to permanently stick this time around.
Going against McAllister is the proven and battle-tested ace James Shields, who has shown everyone for a long period of time now that he can seemingly be counted on in any situation and under any circumstance. The same has held true in 2012, as Shields has posted a nice 8-5 record with a 4.11 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. Those latter two numbers should start to come down a bit, though, as I read a stat explaining how Shields (Much like me, actually) has some of the worst luck in baseball, with a higher-than-most average of balls that get put into play. This is especially crucial for Shields, because he still has maintained his excellent strikeout numbers (104 in 111 innings), so if he continues to do that, the damage against him will become more limited from here on out, due to that average of balls being put in play inevitably going down at some point. One man’s bad luck can’t continue at a high pace for a full season (Which is why I’ve never taken a day off, if I can make that comparison), so look for him to begin to turn around that aspect of his game this afternoon in Cleveland. Another key thing I like about this matchup is that both guys - Shields, especially - have shown they can eat up a lot of innings, which means I can worry less about yet another potential bullpen blunder, which has been the main theme of this 2012 baseball season (Bullpens getting rocked at a historic pace). In other words, I think we can count on each starter to give us a quality extended performance, and with the line as high as 9, we even have room for error. This is a good bet, which is why I have a large amount on it.
Other 7/8 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Jair Jurrjens vs Vance Worley OVER 9 - $22 for $20
Jeremy Guthrie vs Jordan Zimmermann OVER 9 - $21 for $20
Tim Lincecum vs AJ Burnett OVER 8 - $18for $15
Johnny Cueto vs Jason Marquis UNDER 7 - $18 for $15
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
