Let's skip all the pleasantries and get down to this first play. It's already gone from +145 to +142 in a matter of 1/2 hour.
Pirates: ML. (+142) One unit. This is worth the risk of a unit easily, maybe 2. Greinke has elite stuff, but is not an elite pitcher. McDonald does not have elite stuff, but this year is an elite pitcher. Compare their stats. Greinke has very good stats at home and some great starts, even though his last home start vs. Miami was poor. He has pitched almost all of his starts in the past month or so on the road. Anyways, the Pirates, before the break, were the best hitting team in baseball. In their last 7 games: 3 triples, 20 doubles and 11 HRs. Now Greinke could have one of his great games, but I'm wagering that the Pirates will make him work enough to have the truly dreadful Brewers BP come in to give up some runs. The way McDonald is pitching consistently, he is just as likely to pitch a great game, but has an excellent BP to back him up. The worst Pirates in their lineup, Clint Barmes, is 6-9 off Greinke. The Pirates should be slight underdogs here, not +142.
Pirates: ML. (+142) One unit. This is worth the risk of a unit easily, maybe 2. Greinke has elite stuff, but is not an elite pitcher. McDonald does not have elite stuff, but this year is an elite pitcher. Compare their stats. Greinke has very good stats at home and some great starts, even though his last home start vs. Miami was poor. He has pitched almost all of his starts in the past month or so on the road. Anyways, the Pirates, before the break, were the best hitting team in baseball. In their last 7 games: 3 triples, 20 doubles and 11 HRs. Now Greinke could have one of his great games, but I'm wagering that the Pirates will make him work enough to have the truly dreadful Brewers BP come in to give up some runs. The way McDonald is pitching consistently, he is just as likely to pitch a great game, but has an excellent BP to back him up. The worst Pirates in their lineup, Clint Barmes, is 6-9 off Greinke. The Pirates should be slight underdogs here, not +142.