Friday: Let's Begin the 2nd Half YTD: 241-209, +62.5 units

ofred · Jul 12, 2012

Let's skip all the pleasantries and get down to this first play. It's already gone from +145 to +142 in a matter of 1/2 hour.

Pirates: ML. (+142) One unit. This is worth the risk of a unit easily, maybe 2. Greinke has elite stuff, but is not an elite pitcher. McDonald does not have elite stuff, but this year is an elite pitcher. Compare their stats. Greinke has very good stats at home and some great starts, even though his last home start vs. Miami was poor. He has pitched almost all of his starts in the past month or so on the road. Anyways, the Pirates, before the break, were the best hitting team in baseball. In their last 7 games: 3 triples, 20 doubles and 11 HRs. Now Greinke could have one of his great games, but I'm wagering that the Pirates will make him work enough to have the truly dreadful Brewers BP come in to give up some runs. The way McDonald is pitching consistently, he is just as likely to pitch a great game, but has an excellent BP to back him up. The worst Pirates in their lineup, Clint Barmes, is 6-9 off Greinke. The Pirates should be slight underdogs here, not +142.

Catchn_Flops · Jul 13, 2012

Hey Fred and all:

For anyone that gets Showtime, The Miami Marlins are featured in this year's edition of the TV show "The Franchise. A season with the Miami Marlins."

The first episode follows the opening of the stadium, the management and their acquisitions, Guillen and his antics and the up and down Heath Bell. Pretty good show if you like the business side of the sports.

However, Guillen comes off as a real ass. His opening speech to his team was an embarrassment. The owners just suck up to him. Kind of a jerk, imo. I sure hope he can manage better on the field than in the locker room.

BOL

MadPicker · Jul 13, 2012

Pirates started off last season after all star break on fire. I like.

ofred · Jul 13, 2012

Catchn_Flops said:
Hey Fred and all:

For anyone that gets Showtime, The Miami Marlins are featured in this year's edition of the TV show "The Franchise. A season with the Miami Marlins."

The first episode follows the opening of the stadium, the management and their acquisitions, Guillen and his antics and the up and down Heath Bell. Pretty good show if you like the business side of the sports.

However, Guillen comes off as a real ass. His opening speech to his team was an embarrassment. The owners just suck up to him. Kind of a jerk, imo. I sure hope he can manage better on the field than in the locker room.

BOL

Ozzie, Loria and that bunch of head cases can make us money if we can be selective. Probably because Ozzie acts like an ass around the clubhouse and in front of the media. Hanley pouts. Loria acts like he has done everything a good owner could do to build a winner. Some teams pull together when times are tough, but I've got a feeling the Marlins aren't one of them. When they get streaky losing, let's fade 'em.

ofred · Jul 13, 2012

Cleveland. ML.+114. One unit. Masterson is owned by the Rays. Other than that last start, he has been very solid- 6 quality starts against some good hitting teams. The Indians were just heating up before the break. They have an excellent BB:K ratio as hitters lately too. The power is there. They haven't hit well vs. lefties for most of the year, but vs. their last 2- Matt Moore and Matusz, they hit very well. Romero has been down from last year in almost every statistical category. More HRs and walks- but most glaring is his lack of strikeouts. He is not missing bats and the way the Indians are taking bases on balls and hitting lately, they should get to him. He seems to toil at least a few early innings, and run up his pitch count.

moocow · Jul 13, 2012

Excellent first epsidoe of the franchise. The marlins players and management have the personalities to make the show entertaining unlike the boring ass Giants. Heres to an excellent 2H o fred:toast:

ofred · Jul 13, 2012

Cubs/ Arizona: over 8 for one unit. Arizona has knocked around 3 lefties in the past 2 weeks- Capuano and Kershaw(2 very good ones), and yes, today's starter, Paul Maholm. The Cubs also hit Ian Kennedy pretty well in that same series. Kennedy seems to have lost his top of the rotation stuff and status. It's very possible his above average stuff is somewhere in the middle of last year's stats and this year's. He also gets frustrated when things go wrong, which is never a good demeanor for a starting pitcher. Maholm and Kennedy have high ERAs vs. their opponents career-wise. Both of these teams have the hitters to get some rallies going, and both have BPs which are on the poor side. It's a warm day in Chicago, slight breeze blowing out to left.

Maris9 · Jul 13, 2012

I'm always hesitant to take Overs the first day back from the allstar break (hitters timing usually off due to the time off, bullpens fully rested, etc....) but I think I'm gonna follow you on this one. GL today man.

ofred · Jul 13, 2012

I had the same concern, but checking back over the past 2 years, there were about half overs and half unders.

Maris9 · Jul 13, 2012

Good info. Thx man.

ofred · Jul 13, 2012

Oakland/ Twins. under 8 (-115). I'm playing this partly under the assumption (which usually proves to be true) that teams that haven't seen a pitcher yet struggle against that pitcher. And with this new kid, AJ Griffin, I think this will be especially true. He dominated in his last starts in AAA, and has been equally good in the majors- yielding only 9 hits in 18 innings vs. Boston, Texas and SF. The A's also are hitting only .223 vs. lefties with a .288 OBP this year. Other than 1 poor start, Liriano has been steady since his return to the rotation. He still walks too many, but rarely give up the long ball. Both bullpens are rested, and the Twins gets Capps back. A's BP has been very good. Very good- almost to the point where the A's are a good play on the ML.

ofred · Jul 13, 2012

Both 1/2 units: ATL / NYM. under 8.5. Have a feeling Hudson pitches great game off the long rest. Young consistently yields 2-3 runs. Braves lineup not impressive.
Miami/ WASH. under 7.5. 2 pitchers that have been consistently good in the past month or two. Miami a pitcher's park. Both lineups a tad overrated.

ofred · Jul 13, 2012

SF -1. One unit. I know Wandy is a better starter than Lyles, but actually this Giant lineup hits Wandy pretty well. Mostly I like Bumgarner at home, who has put up great K numbers, with very low walk numbers. Houston is also hitting .210 vs. lefties, and Bumgarner is one of the best in the game. Looking back over the last 2 years, he always follows up a poor start with an excellent one. His Washington game was the poor one, here comes the excellent one. The tenuous nature of the Astros' manager and many players soon to be traded does not usually mean a team is about to start playing well. I know they're pros but it's gonna get to them. Giants BP has been shaky, but the Astros is worse.

thechemist82 · Jul 14, 2012

Up and down night, good call on Cle, Pitt was right there. Crazy Ransom hit a Grand Slam in that spot.. SF is really hitting a groove with their team. Especially pitchers not named Tim.

Friday: Let's Begin the 2nd Half YTD: 241-209, +62.5 units

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