2012 MLB O/U Record: 218-210-20, -$1,517 (Been making bigger bets this year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Well, that felt like a longggg all-star break, albeit a good one after taking zero days off from over/unders (And writing my signature 1,000-plus word articles) the entire first half, just like last year. Nonetheless, the second half is finally here, and after a very disappointing first half to this very, very bizarre 2012 season, I’m motivated to at least try and steer things back in the right direction, as although I absolutely lead the entire country in bad beats/fluke losses this year (Regular readers will vouch for me; and VERY few breaks have gone my way, as you all have noticed), I’m confident that there can be a return to normalcy in this second half, just so long as fluke bad fielding and the seemingly countless number of bullpen breakdowns are minimized significantly. And with that said, let’s move on to the return of the baseball season…
(Smaller bits of analysis with my 7 o’clock games, the reason being that my best bet will showcase at 10, that being Lyles vs Bumgarner under 7, which I will offer a bigger write-up for a bit later after this article)
Doug Fister vs Jason Hammel OVER 9 - $40 for $44
Okay, there is absolutely NO reason why this game should be listed at 9, other than the offenses involved and the ballpark it is being played in. But, with this solid pitching matchup, even ina year where offense is significantly up, a game like this would usually command a line of 8.5 or even 8. However, that is something that we can play to our advantage, as Vegas is obviously trying to bait people into the under. After all, the general consensus recognizes Doug Fister as an upper-tier pitcher - even with his shoddy 4.75 ERA - and rightfully so. This guy has been consistently good for awhile now, but there have been signs over the recent past that indicated he would regress. For example, he’s allowing the most baserunners ever for his career (1.45 WHIP at the moment, well above his previous season high of 1.28), and his batting average against has also hit its peak quite easily at an ugly .292 clip. In this instance, we’re also catching Fister in his worst setting, that being on the road, where he sports a 4.89 ERA. He also hasn’t been his best in night starts, as evident in his ERA soaring over 5. I mean, Fister obviously isn’t as nearly as bad as his current numbers, but I’m going by vibe here, as well as the fact that Camden Yards is awfully tough for a pitcher to suddenly turn it around. Jason Hammel, unlike his counterpart tonight, has had a truly fabulous season, legitimately becoming an ace for the emerging Orioles. But, there have been countless cases over the years where a guy simply overachieves a lot in the fist half, only to crash back down to earth in the second. I don’t necessarily think Hammel’s numbers will drop off at a high rate, but going up against the Tigers’ potent offense, it is reasonable to believe that some sort of decline for Baltimore’s No. 1 pitcher can begin tonight. And with the line being as high as it has been all day, Vegas clearly thinks so, too.
Justin Masterson vs Ricky Romero UNDER 9.5 - $48 for $40
It’s very interesting how much these pitchers have dropped off from a year ago. After all, in 2011, Justin Masterson had the year of his life, catching everyone’s attention and blooming into Cleveland’s darling ace after a marvelous campaign. Meanwhile, Ricky Romero had himself another great year, while continuing to establish himself as Toronto’s front man. Well, only one season later and we have Romero - despite owning eight victories - near the toilet with his unexpected 5+ ERA after years of greatness, while Masterson has also declined considerably, although to his credit, he was at a much worse point not that long ago, but has turned it around, with five of his last seven starts being quality ones, in effort of lowering his ERA back down to an acceptable 4.40. A large reason for Masterson’s success in 2011 were his high strikeout numbers, and he’s becoming more of that pitcher again, having punched out at least seven batters in four of his last five outings, which is a strong sign that he’s becoming more of his ’11 self again. Romero, though, is a bit more tricky, as he’s just simply getting hit, which is unusual for him. This is someone who has always teetered around the tougher waters of pitching in the AL East, but apparently, teams have figured him out. I don’t completely buy it, and I really believe Romero will improve his numbers, even if not that significant, beginning tonight. Romero has been too good over these past few years to just suddenly suck, and we could see the Law of Averages benefiting him in the second half more than most pitchers.Certainly, I cannot envision him ending up with an ERA above 5, where it currently stands. Therefore, his effort - and when he’s locked in, he’s terrific. He’s very passionate at his position, if you’ve watched him as much as I have - will lead him through his current predicament.
Cliff Lee vs Christian Friedrich UNDER 10 - $33 for $30
Let’s just it this way: If you have the chance to grab a Cliff Lee under when the line is as high as 10, well, it’s a great bet no matter what, even if it’s at nightmarish Coors Field. With certain pitchers, it doesn’t matter where the venue is because they just have the potential to single-handedly dominate an opposing lineup on any given night. Vegas obviously knows this and is also accounting for the so-far-not-good Christian Friedrich, who I’m pretty sure I’ll be investing a lot in over the second half as it pertains to unders. I’ve watched Friedrich a couple of times in his rookie season, and while his numbers look unsightly, I do think they’ll improve as he grows and develops a legitimate Major League starting pitcher who sticks at this level. Plus, it’s not like the Phillies’ offense is that golden or anything (Even with Ryan Howard back, as he may take some time before returning to his normal self). At the end of the day, this is a matchup that involves a crafty southpaw who just got off the schnide with his first win and, therefore, will start to contribute more of his normal pitching, going up against a youngster that I believe is due for a solid second half. Under it is.
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
(Also, as I said, expect a write-up for my best bet tonight, that being Lyles vs Bumgarner under 7)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Well, that felt like a longggg all-star break, albeit a good one after taking zero days off from over/unders (And writing my signature 1,000-plus word articles) the entire first half, just like last year. Nonetheless, the second half is finally here, and after a very disappointing first half to this very, very bizarre 2012 season, I’m motivated to at least try and steer things back in the right direction, as although I absolutely lead the entire country in bad beats/fluke losses this year (Regular readers will vouch for me; and VERY few breaks have gone my way, as you all have noticed), I’m confident that there can be a return to normalcy in this second half, just so long as fluke bad fielding and the seemingly countless number of bullpen breakdowns are minimized significantly. And with that said, let’s move on to the return of the baseball season…
(Smaller bits of analysis with my 7 o’clock games, the reason being that my best bet will showcase at 10, that being Lyles vs Bumgarner under 7, which I will offer a bigger write-up for a bit later after this article)
Doug Fister vs Jason Hammel OVER 9 - $40 for $44
Okay, there is absolutely NO reason why this game should be listed at 9, other than the offenses involved and the ballpark it is being played in. But, with this solid pitching matchup, even ina year where offense is significantly up, a game like this would usually command a line of 8.5 or even 8. However, that is something that we can play to our advantage, as Vegas is obviously trying to bait people into the under. After all, the general consensus recognizes Doug Fister as an upper-tier pitcher - even with his shoddy 4.75 ERA - and rightfully so. This guy has been consistently good for awhile now, but there have been signs over the recent past that indicated he would regress. For example, he’s allowing the most baserunners ever for his career (1.45 WHIP at the moment, well above his previous season high of 1.28), and his batting average against has also hit its peak quite easily at an ugly .292 clip. In this instance, we’re also catching Fister in his worst setting, that being on the road, where he sports a 4.89 ERA. He also hasn’t been his best in night starts, as evident in his ERA soaring over 5. I mean, Fister obviously isn’t as nearly as bad as his current numbers, but I’m going by vibe here, as well as the fact that Camden Yards is awfully tough for a pitcher to suddenly turn it around. Jason Hammel, unlike his counterpart tonight, has had a truly fabulous season, legitimately becoming an ace for the emerging Orioles. But, there have been countless cases over the years where a guy simply overachieves a lot in the fist half, only to crash back down to earth in the second. I don’t necessarily think Hammel’s numbers will drop off at a high rate, but going up against the Tigers’ potent offense, it is reasonable to believe that some sort of decline for Baltimore’s No. 1 pitcher can begin tonight. And with the line being as high as it has been all day, Vegas clearly thinks so, too.
Justin Masterson vs Ricky Romero UNDER 9.5 - $48 for $40
It’s very interesting how much these pitchers have dropped off from a year ago. After all, in 2011, Justin Masterson had the year of his life, catching everyone’s attention and blooming into Cleveland’s darling ace after a marvelous campaign. Meanwhile, Ricky Romero had himself another great year, while continuing to establish himself as Toronto’s front man. Well, only one season later and we have Romero - despite owning eight victories - near the toilet with his unexpected 5+ ERA after years of greatness, while Masterson has also declined considerably, although to his credit, he was at a much worse point not that long ago, but has turned it around, with five of his last seven starts being quality ones, in effort of lowering his ERA back down to an acceptable 4.40. A large reason for Masterson’s success in 2011 were his high strikeout numbers, and he’s becoming more of that pitcher again, having punched out at least seven batters in four of his last five outings, which is a strong sign that he’s becoming more of his ’11 self again. Romero, though, is a bit more tricky, as he’s just simply getting hit, which is unusual for him. This is someone who has always teetered around the tougher waters of pitching in the AL East, but apparently, teams have figured him out. I don’t completely buy it, and I really believe Romero will improve his numbers, even if not that significant, beginning tonight. Romero has been too good over these past few years to just suddenly suck, and we could see the Law of Averages benefiting him in the second half more than most pitchers.Certainly, I cannot envision him ending up with an ERA above 5, where it currently stands. Therefore, his effort - and when he’s locked in, he’s terrific. He’s very passionate at his position, if you’ve watched him as much as I have - will lead him through his current predicament.
Cliff Lee vs Christian Friedrich UNDER 10 - $33 for $30
Let’s just it this way: If you have the chance to grab a Cliff Lee under when the line is as high as 10, well, it’s a great bet no matter what, even if it’s at nightmarish Coors Field. With certain pitchers, it doesn’t matter where the venue is because they just have the potential to single-handedly dominate an opposing lineup on any given night. Vegas obviously knows this and is also accounting for the so-far-not-good Christian Friedrich, who I’m pretty sure I’ll be investing a lot in over the second half as it pertains to unders. I’ve watched Friedrich a couple of times in his rookie season, and while his numbers look unsightly, I do think they’ll improve as he grows and develops a legitimate Major League starting pitcher who sticks at this level. Plus, it’s not like the Phillies’ offense is that golden or anything (Even with Ryan Howard back, as he may take some time before returning to his normal self). At the end of the day, this is a matchup that involves a crafty southpaw who just got off the schnide with his first win and, therefore, will start to contribute more of his normal pitching, going up against a youngster that I believe is due for a solid second half. Under it is.
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
(Also, as I said, expect a write-up for my best bet tonight, that being Lyles vs Bumgarner under 7)
hno:
