BLUE SHARK - July MLB

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Hi guys. I have been betting on sports for a long time and have probably broke even over the past decade even though I've had a win percentage between 55% and 60%. My issue has always been money management, chasing losses when I shouldn't have and betting more money on games than my bank allowed me too (for when I went through cold slumps).

What I have learned through trial and error is that whenever you vary the size of your bet by even the smallest amount, you increase the breakeven percentage of 52.38 (figuring all bets you make have -110 juice). If you refigure your percentage after each bet, your breakeven jumps to over 55%. If you have 1 unit and 5 units bets or bet twice as much on some plays, you should understand that only the large bets are meaningful to whether you will be a winner. You might as well not bet the smaller ones. In the end, they won't matter. Some handicappers say you should increase your bet when you are on a winning streak and decrease it when you are on a losing streak; but to do that you'd need to know when you are at the start of a winning streak or at the start of a losing streak. If you won yesterday, you were on a winning streak. But that was yesterday. If you know you will win today, why not bet it all? Right? If you know you will lose today, then why would you even bet at all? I have learned the problem with bet size is not the streaks, but the breakeven point. If you expect to win 56 of your bets, over 200 games you will win less than 50% about 17% of the time while you will win more than 60% about 17% of the time. Winning 100 bets and losing 100 bets with a 5% unit, you will lose 50% of your bankroll to the vigorish (figuring all bets are -110 juice). 100 wins times $50 minus100 losses times $55 equals negative $500 on a $1,000 bankroll. So you're now on a losing streak, will lower your bet size and never get back to even!?

Anyways, a year and a half ago I decided to finally change my ways by sticking to a simple and strict money management plan and I have doubled my bank in the past 18 months. I had 5,000 as a starting bank in January of 2011 and I now have 10,000 so I figured why not join a couple on-line communities and start sharing my opinion like all of you have been. I average about 1,100 wagers per year (approx. three wagers per day), I NEVER risk more than -125 juice on a wager and I flat bet all of my wagers at 2% (as I believe nobody should ever risk more than 2% of their bankroll, even recreational bettors, though I do have a slight variance to this rule - which I'll explain momentarily).

Here are the guidelines that I now live by:
  • Starting bank = $10,000 = 100 units ... therefore ... 1 unit = 1% of starting bank = $100
  • I flat-bet 2 units/2% of SB/$200 on EVERY wager I make
  • I never risk more than 25 cents of juice on a bet, therefore -125 bets are the biggest juice wagers I make.
  • I never allow more than 10% of my bankroll to be at risk on any given day (therefore I can only have a max of 5 bets [all sports] on any given day)

HOWEVER, I should add that I use a plateau system. I bet 2% of my bank and continue to flat bet until my bank grows by at least 25% (25 units). Then I recalculate the 2%. Thus since I am starting with $10,000, I would bet $200 a game until my bank grows to at least $12,500. At that point, I would refigure my unit to $250. It would stay there until I reached at least $15,625 (50% plateau). That way my actual risk reward ratio doesn't get too high. The other thing that I do that is unique and rather arguable is that I never lower my bet. Remember, if you vary the bet, your breakeven goes up. If you lose 10 games at $200 a bet and lower the bet to $180, you must win 12.2 bets to get back to even. At a 2% unit and over 15 years of experience, I'm comfortable that I can ride through a losing streak and with this strategy I am only required to profit 76 units (rather than 100 units) for a 100% ROI - and if history is any indication of the future, I believe I can double my bank every 18 months (1.5 years).

During the NHL/NBA/NFL/NCAA B/NCAA F seasons I only make NFL/CFB selections on the weekend (ZERO NHL/NBA/NCAAB). While during the week (Monday-Friday) I will make only NHL/NBA/NCAAB selections. I have noticed in past years with so many games to handicap on the weekend I have not performed well in those three sports, thus I use these days for relaxation and to prepare for the upcoming week. I typically try to make one NHL/NBA/NCAAB pick per day (three total) during the week) then 3 to 5 NCAAF and 3 to 5 NFL selections per weekend. During the MLB season (April-September) I typically make between 1-3 picks per day.

It's nice to be here, I hope I can be a contributing member and I look forward to hearing your opinions while learning and growing as a handicapper as you should never stop learning and improving; the best in the world (at anything) will tell you that. Whether anybody follows me or not, it makes no difference to me, I just hope that at the very least I can save some people money they would have otherwise lost - by practising bad money management. I'm joining these forums now, as it is the half way point of the MLB season and felt that it was a fitting time to jump in. I will keep track of how I fare on here and I have decided to use my current bankroll as the starting point for symmetry (I took out about $386 to arrive at this $10,000 starting point.

CHEERS :toast:
 

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FRIDAY - JULY 13

7:05pm = LA Angels +112 [2.0 to win 2.24]
7:05pm = Cleveland +115 [2.0 to win 2.30]
7:10pm = MIA/WSN UNDER 7.5 -120 [2.0 to win 1.67]
 
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Nice to see you Stop by Pittviper :howdy:

Guess things must be Slow for you and Your Crew....
 

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I tried posting before they started, but this website took a while to approve my post because it says that I am under moderation.
 
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I tried posting before they started, but this website took a while to approve my post because it says that I am under moderation.


NO, that's not how it works... You Make a post at whatever time ... Even if I release it an Hour later, it Still will post at the Time you made it.

You should know that. You have been on Post review Before.
 

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I am saying that my first post took almost 20 minutes to be approved so I didn't get to post until 10 minutes after the games started. You're right though, I should have just not posted my bets.

Why the mean comments? This wasn't the welcome I was expecting! I thought people would say hi and welcome. If there was somebody else with this name, or a similar one before, then you've confused me for someone I am not.
 

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2-1 +1.97u yesterday

SATURDAY - JULY 14

1:05pm = Cleveland Indians +107 [2.0 to win 2.14]
1:05pm = Chicago Cubs -124 [2.0 to win 1.61]



---------------------------
OVERALL: 2-1 +1.97u

[*] 1ST PLATEAU (2% of 100u): 2-1 +1.97u

[*] 2ND PLATEAU (2% of 125u):

[*] 3RD PLATEAU (2% of 150u):

[*] 4TH PLATEAU (2% of 175u):


JULY MLB: 2-1 +1.97u
 

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1-1 -0.39u yesterday


SUNDAY - JULY 15

1:05pm = NY Mets -105 [2.0 to win 1.90]
1:40pm = Boston +103 [2.0 to win 2.06]
4:10pm = Texas (-1.5) -110 [2.0 to win 1.82]



---------------------------
OVERALL: 3-2 +1.58u

[*] 1ST PLATEAU (2% of 100u): 3-2 +1.58u

[*] 2ND PLATEAU (2% of 125u):

[*] 3RD PLATEAU (2% of 150u):

[*] 4TH PLATEAU (2% of 175u):



JULY MLB: 3-2 +1.58u
 

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